What shows do you think will be here in 5 years? — Page 2

It's interesting to read lists of 8 (or possibly more) predictions for shows to remain open five years from now. There are currently 3 shows (Phantom, Lion King and Wicked) that have been open close to or more than five years. It is very rare indeed.

The real question is which of these will close to make way for Billy Elliot on the list? Phantom is an institution, Wicked has unbelievable sales, and Lion King has huge backing to get it through the dry periods. Maybe a fourth in five years?

Ed

TBD --- Five years is a long time on Broadway, but Wicked, Phantom, and Lion King aren't the only ones that have been open for close to/over five years.

Avenue Q (6 years)
Chicago (13 years)
Jersey Boys (4 years and still selling over 100%)
Mamma Mia (8 years)

Obviously there are a dozen shows that close within a year for every show that has a multi-year run, but most of these predictions are still pretty plausible IMO. Also, most of the shows listed have either recouped or are on their way to recouping, which makes a multi-year run more possible.

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I really think BE is going to be around for a while. Yes, its expensive to run but its selling really well and word of mouth is great.

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Lets see how well Billy does after the the first total major cast change before we make 5 year predictions for it. I'm not too worried though...one thing they have done perfect so far elsewhere is the cast changes. Its not star driven, plus sooner or later they will throw in some "street" style Billys to give even more variety(I hope). As long as they can keep finding Billys for 3 USA shows as planned here's hoping it keeps playing.

In 5 years it will time for another Sweeney Todd revival. Or they may have got up the courage for the Merrily revival by then.