What shows do you think will be here in 5 years?- Page 2

[TBD2]

Posted: 8/2/09 at 8:38pm

It's interesting to read lists of 8 (or possibly more) predictions for shows to remain open five years from now. There are currently 3 shows (Phantom, Lion King and Wicked) that have been open close to or more than five years. It is very rare indeed.

The real question is which of these will close to make way for Billy Elliot on the list? Phantom is an institution, Wicked has unbelievable sales, and Lion King has huge backing to get it through the dry periods. Maybe a fourth in five years?

Ed

[Scarywarhol]

Posted: 8/2/09 at 8:56pm

9 to 5

[TreyKenyon]

Posted: 8/2/09 at 11:19pm

TBD --- Five years is a long time on Broadway, but Wicked, Phantom, and Lion King aren't the only ones that have been open for close to/over five years.

Avenue Q (6 years)
Chicago (13 years)
Jersey Boys (4 years and still selling over 100%)
Mamma Mia (8 years)

Obviously there are a dozen shows that close within a year for every show that has a multi-year run, but most of these predictions are still pretty plausible IMO. Also, most of the shows listed have either recouped or are on their way to recouping, which makes a multi-year run more possible.

[bundy5000]

Posted: 8/2/09 at 11:34pm

I am sad to say I think Billy Elliot is going to start winding down in maybe 2 years or so. I have my reasons, but I hope it can stay open as long as it can. Maybe the score is eh ,but it is a powerful show none the less.

[BroadwayBound062]

Posted: 8/3/09 at 2:27am

I really think BE is going to be around for a while. Yes, its expensive to run but its selling really well and word of mouth is great.

[Lumen2]

Posted: 8/3/09 at 2:36am

People said "In the Heights" would be around for a while, and I don't think it's going to last much longer...Billy Elliot is the flash in the pan now, but who knows how long it'll last.

[sking]

Posted: 8/3/09 at 3:26am

Lets see how well Billy does after the the first total major cast change before we make 5 year predictions for it. I'm not too worried though...one thing they have done perfect so far elsewhere is the cast changes. Its not star driven, plus sooner or later they will throw in some "street" style Billys to give even more variety(I hope). As long as they can keep finding Billys for 3 USA shows as planned here's hoping it keeps playing.

[TBD2]

Posted: 8/3/09 at 9:28am

Trey: "but Wicked, Phantom, and Lion King aren't the only ones that have been open for close to/over five years. "

I stand corrected. Those pesky moves threw me off with Chicago... Should have caught AND Mama Mia, but Jersey Boys doesn't count (yet) and Ave. Q is closing to make room for it on the 'list' eventually. So make it 5 or 6 shows instead of 3 and the rest of my post remains as stated. Thanks.

Ed
Updated On: 8/3/09 at 09:28 AM

[devonian.t]

Posted: 8/3/09 at 11:48am

In 5 years it will time for another Sweeney Todd revival. Or they may have got up the courage for the Merrily revival by then.

[AwesomeDanny]

Posted: 8/3/09 at 12:46pm

I agree that in a couple years, the buzz with Billy Elliot will have died down a bit. However, by then, the producers will probably do (hopefully good) stunt casting. I don't mean like Disney stars as Billy's older brother because eight-year-old girls aren't the targeted audience for the show, but maybe dramatic film actors would bring some more people who would enjoy the show into the theater. Of course, the London production has been running for about 3 and a half years, so there's a good chance it will still be running.