What shows do you think will be here in 5 years?

Since the economy is hurting Broadway ticket sales, I was wondering what shows you all think will be here 5 years from now. Also what revivals do you think will be there or you would like to see be there then? Thanks!

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I wanna say, Phantom, Jersey Boys, and Wicked. Since Wicked still sells at 100% and doesn't even offer discount codes as a result.

Billy Elliot, Mamma Mia, The Lion King, Wicked, Jersey Boys, Phantom.

Longshot, but anyone else think Hair could be the next long running revival ala Chicago?

Still
Phantom
Wicked
Billy Elliot
Jersey Boys
Mamma Mia
Chicago (Maybe)
West Side Story (Maybe, Unfortunately)

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Definitely:
Wicked, Jersey Boys, The Lion King, Billy Elliot, Mamma Mia

Possibly:
Phantom of the Opera, Hair, Chicago, In the Heights

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I'm going to throw in my thoughts:

Wicked
Billy Elliot
Jersey Boys
The Phantom of the Opera
Love Never Dies (my guess is they will hang on to this one for a while)


And possibly:
West Side Story
Mamma Mia
Lion King

Updated On: 8/1/09 at 02:24 PM

Oooh... no mentions of shrek... But then i can't imagine it lasting too long myself.

As for what'll be there in 5 years: Wicked, Phantom and Lion King are the Broadway staples. They're the ones that'll always be running. I can imagine Mary Poppins and Mamma Mia being around too.

Pretty sure:
Phantom
Wicked
The Lion King
Billy Elliot
Jersey Boys

Maybe:
Chicago
South Pacific
Hair
Mary Poppins
West Side Story
In the Heights
Mamma Mia!

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I have been thinking that Phantom might close because of the sequel. Why keep both shows going, expect maybe for money? They might wait awhile to see how the sequel does though.

Five years an extremely long time, but if we can be honest here, I think only three shows will still be open in five years:

Wicked
Billy Elliott
The Lion King

Even new successes like HAIR may eventually fizzle out after, say, 4 years. Shows like IN THE HEIGHTS may lose audiences when blockbusters like SPIDERMAN (2.5 years) and ADDAMS FAMILY (2 years) open, season after season after season (as is the trend). Eventually and sadly, more shows will taper out.

Realistically, shows who've had a tremendous run will eventually need to close. I have hope for CHICAGO because of the endless casting choices and minimalistic production, but people will only continue seeing it until NINE or some other movie-musical replaces it in award-winning glory.

Cheers to hoping 5 years from now, I'm not on BWW anymore, nor am I aware of how these predictions resulted.

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If Hair runs much longer that cast will have to start changing..or dropping dead. They go so hard (I know, I know, all Broadway performers do) that it would kill them to do that for more than a year or so.

The fate of Mary Poppins and South Pacific, I'm afraid, rests upon how long before Disney and Lincon Center decide to put something else in those theatres. They're both great, but unless they tranfer (and SP will not), they're fated by their producer's other projects...

"In the category of revivals, I think there could be another Les Mis revival... advertised as without Daphne Rubin-Vega! That would sell tickets a lot better than the first revival."

....Because the first revival did so bad? It extended not once, but twice. And Daphne, as bad as she was, only did like 4 months of it?? It was limited engagement all along...


My list:
Phantom of the Opera
The Lion King
Wicked
Mamma Mia!

I do think Billy Elliot may have potential to be open in 5 years, but it's run will certainly be winding down at that point. The score isn't all too great and plenty of non-theatre folk have not liked it.

Phantom of the Opera will get a major boost from Phantom 2. People/tourists will go see Phantom 1 one night and the next day will see Phantom 2. It's inevitable that people will do this. Not to mention it's the longest running show in Broadway history, despite what people say on here it isn't necessarily theatre trash.

I've semi-read the "Phantom of Manhattan" novel, I am actually curious which details they put it / leave out. But seeing as most people are expecting a flop with that one, why close Phantom 1 then? Makes no sense...