Will "Rent" Be A Flop?

[Myron]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:05am

Except for a very few, hit Broadway shows transformed into movies have been major flops. Think of "A Chorus Line","South Pacific","Phantom Of The Opera","Flower Drum Song",etc. Would "Cats" be a great film? On the other hand, we have such Hollywood hits as "West Side Story", "Oliver", "Funny Girl" and "The King And I". Hopefully, "Rent" with a relatively unknown group of stars, will not join the flops.

[BobbyBubby]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:06am

A bit soon to tell.

[Pippin]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:16am

with all the rentheads in the world who will be seeing it at least 5 times over, just on that group alone, I don't think it CAN flop.

[OasisBroadway]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:21am

I think RENT has something none of those others do/did. That is, a large number of people who will see the movie numerous times.

[Over_the_Moon]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:25am

And all those rentheads dragging everyone they know...

[RentBoy86]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:25am

True, but if Phantom can't make a successful film and its the going to be the longest running show on Broadway - who knows? But RENT will translate better to our generation and teens.

[Forester]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:26am

It'll make money. I doubt it would be a big blockbuster, especially worldwide where very few people even know the musical existed. I see the movie as a cult hit.

[jynni]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:34am

It kinda depends on what one wants to consider a "flop".

It's probably not going to be a huge blockbuster and make 150+ million dollars. However, it most likely will make a profit as I think the budget was only around 40 million. Add in DVD and soundtrack sales and it should do fine.

I'm guessing around "Phantom" numbers for North American box office (about 70 million). I'm thinking the international box office won't be very high since the musical isn't quite as well known outside the US (compared to say PTO, Les Miz or Chicago).

If the movie turns out to be good, is well marketed (they've been doing good so far) and gets some awards buzz it could probably go over 100 million.

Of course in the end it will probably depend on if it's good or not. The "Rentheads" will go see it multiple times but the movie will have to be able to draw in others to make huge $.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:47am

Technically, almost every movie in this day and age turns a profit when you consider dvd sales, international distribution, televesion rights, etc. Even GIGLI

The lack of interest in the film of PHANTOM was a surprise - though it can be attributed to a lot of things -- it's release was poorly timed, it's marketing badly handled, and it's revues less then steller. But ultimately, PHANTOM didn't have what EVERY movie needs to be a blockbuster -- great word of mouth.

RENT is a fairly small budget film, and I think it will in the grand scheme turn a profit. BUT, the film to be a runaway success will have to be good enough to cross over to audiences outside of the fans of the stage production (even if they see it 10 times each, that's not enough).

Reviews and word of mouth will mean everything.

[theatreboi11]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 11:47am

Its is hard to tell....for a while movie musicals weren't made. Chicago was very successful, however Phantom that followed was not. Who knows how our society todayw will take all the new movie musicals. I am definatly rooting for it to be super successful! Maybe it is a sign but yesterday the Rent soundtrack was number 51 on top selling items on Amazon, today it is 14! Quite a jump!

[peach]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:04pm

I think one of the big draws that made Chicago so successful (aside form it being a great movie) was its all-star cast. Phantom didn't have that - RENT doesn't really either by Hollywood standards. They seem to be marketing it well and getting great press on it, which should help sales.

I think most of the RENT money will be made in DVD sales, unless word of mouth and critic reviews get the buzz very high when it is released in theatres. I do see it as a bit of a cult hit to start, but if the buzz factor is high, it could do quite well.

We shall see!
Updated On: 9/29/05 at 12:04 PM

[Magdalene]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:14pm

I don't think Phantom was as big a flop as all that---it did a respectable box office (not sure if it recouped it's costs). I don't think Rent will do as well Phantom, only because the target audience is narrower. I do think, also, that Rent will have more repeat business, so who knows? But a flop? Nah.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:18pm

PHANTOM lost money in its Northern American release, though it wasn't a disaster. It's perceived as a bigger flop then perhaps it was, simply because people expected the film to be HUGE.

And given that its based on the most successful musical ever, the fact that it only grossed 50 million was a shock.

[ToatsRent]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:18pm

I think the film looks amazing. And I honestly think it will be a hit and a critical hit. Im hoping for an Oscar nomination for best film! (and win, clearly) Lets not forget how STRONG this material is, and to have 6 of the 8 originals reprising there performances just adds to what an incredible journey this film is and the legacy of Jonathon Larson. Lets also not forget that RENT won the Tony, Drama Critics Circle, Drama Desk, Outer Critics, Drama League, and oh yeah the freakin' Pulitzer Prize for drama. It was on every major critics list of best new shows. RENT has a huge fan base. Most of us have seen the show multiple times and I know I plan on seeing the movie as much as I can.
Flop? I dont think so.



-j-

[The8re phan]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:18pm

I see Rent doing much better boxoffice than Phantom. The core audience for Phantom is older (period piece, classical score, old story). These are people that do venture out to the theatre, making the stage show a success, but don't really rush out to the local cineplex very often. They will more or less wait to see the film on DVD or television.

Rent is a completely different animal. A modern, provactive story, loud rock music, pretty looking cast, targeted at young people that make up the vast majority of the movie-going public. Not only will it draw the Rent-heads and curious theatre folk, but I see it drawing in a whole new audience.

Updated On: 9/29/05 at 12:18 PM

[theatreboi11]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:30pm

I COMPLETLY disagree that Rent won't do as well as Phantom because of the narrower fan base! I think the name alone turned non theatre folk away. How many non theatre loving teens/young adults would go see something with Opera in the title. So far Rent is doing very well gearing toward the teen/20's base. Plus with the word of mouth and alredy theatre fans of the older generation I do feel Rent WILL do tons better than phantom!

[Unmasked05]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:31pm

Let's put it like this...cause everyone else is being all "technical" with it


COUGH..........NOT IF I CAN HELP IT!!!!!!!

I will see this movie everyday if I have too!!!!
(NOT JOKING)

I also hope the movie is nominated for OSCARS and everything...I know that "The Producers" will probably be nominated for Oscars and it might not even do that well and watch RENT do well and not get nominated for anything but a MTV Award...when a movie like this deserves a Oscar.

But...no I don't think it will FLOP.

[peach]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:32pm

I think RENT has a MUCH better, more organized approach to marketing, public relations and release dates. This is a good thing!

Phantom could have done just as well, but I think they messed up on the above three items. Especially the release timing.

[Unmasked05]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:38pm

I agree...I think Phantom could have done well...if they had a better Phantom as well and they should have kept the same ending...the ending in the show makes him "More" of a Phantom...and so does the Graceyard Scene.

[DramaDork925]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 12:58pm

Well... most of my theatre friends are complete RENTheads (as am I) and we all plan on seeing it multiple times, as many as we can afford. So, I think that the RENTheads who have seen the show itself so many times will be living at movie theatres. I don't think RENT is in jeopardy of being a flop... in fact I'm a little nervous RENT will reach The Nightmare Before Christmas cult status... I think it deserves the recognition but I will cry if little girls run around going "OMGZZZ RENT IS SOOO GOOD!" and totally miss the true meaning...

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 1:00pm

I've said it before but I'll say it again. If there are a bunch of screaming RENT dorks disrupting the screening I attend, I will unleash my water gun.

[The8re phan]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 1:04pm

i'm with ya on that one, MB!!!!

[Magdalene]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 1:21pm

I Do think that Rent has a narrower audience (I don't mean that in a bad way, necessarily!) The appeal of POTO as a musical reached a wider audience in age, as oppposed to Rent. They both have devoted fans, but the rock music of Rent will keep older folks away (my mom wants nothing to do with Rent, whereas I will probably go see it at least 2-3 times!) I still don't see it being a flop.
What was Rent's budget?

[Urban]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 1:34pm

I think there has been a seriously over-estimation of the amount of RENTheads in existance in this thread.

[caitiesus1522]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 1:40pm

I think Rent will do better than Phaton did. and the word of mouth is going to be so much better too. So many people have seen and loved the musical, and I am going to assume most people who bought the OBC recording of the CD will go see the movie, using mostly original cast was a great idea, and not only because they are the best for the parts.

And on the star power...I think it has more than phantom. I mean the only big name in that was Minnie Driver. I know almost all Law and Order fans I know (and many in various groups for the show) want to see it becasue of Jesse L Martin both becasue they love him and want to see him doing what he started his career with. Rosario is also going to get a LOT of people to come. After Sin City she has become a bigger deal

Also Idina....with how well Wicked is doing people will want t ocome see her.

The others in the cast def arent nobodys on the broadway scene so their fans will all see it at least once

It is going to come down to marketing though but so far they have done an AMAZING job and it is so much before it comes out...they can only get better. I am expecting to see all of them (together or alone or in small groups) on every talk show, and in every magazine.

All in all I think it will do well but everyone who is a huge Rent fan needs to do their part in getting people who may not be that interested in it to check it out