Will "Rent" Be A Flop? — Page 2

Phantom flopped for several reasons, most notably marketing. Chicago had stellar reviews, and the limited release allowed them to build word-of-mouth. Phantom tried the same approach, but failed miserably. Most critics thought the film to be a fine translation of the stage musical, the problem was the material. Even the stage production doesn't get good reviews in noted cultural cities (New York, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, etc.) and the film's reviews mirrored the stage reviews. The probelm: the stage show is a spectacle, the film is not. Word of mouth for the stage musical is praiseworthy whereas there is nothing in the film that could remotely be seen as spectacle. Mediocre reviews, no real word of mouth and poor marketing doomed the film. Not to mention its budget was $70 million.

RENT, on the otherhand, was $40 million. It has very good marketing. The stage show isn't considered a spectacle, so the expectations of grand special effects don't exist. The stage show received mostly good reviews, and its legion of fans are more psychotic than Phantom's. The fact that most of the OBC is in the film will get the fans to the movie, whereas Phantoms fanbase was split due to the casting, with many unhappy and boycotting the movie. RENT's modest budget will make it a hit, but it won't be a blcokbuster. Same with The Producers, though it seems like it's having troubles in the marketing department, and its limited released is being buried with the release of King Kong.

I think it's hard to tell.. RENT has a HUGE fan base yes but, people in the midwestern states/southern states might not support it as much because of some of the issues it deals with. Thats sadly a large chunk of the box office. I hope it does well though.. it looks amazing.

"people in the midwestern states/southern states might not support it as much because of some of the issues it deals with."

Sadly, this is often true. I was wearing my Rent shirt one day, and one of my dad's friends, who had seen the show years ago said "I just can't get into a show about a drag-queen with AIDS who sings."

Rent was only a hit on Broadway so there is not such a huge fan base.
It flopped here in Australia and I don't think it did well in London.

---

i really hope it doesnt flop

---

I think if Rent is good (and everything I've heard is that it is) it will be a big hit. It's a bigger draw to the 49 and under demographic than POTO was. It's publicity is great. I think it will strike a chord with young people. Any controversy over "subject matter" will only boost the ticket sales. It's a shoo in for Golden Globe glory (unless The Producers takes the Musical or Comedy awards) and possibly other awards.

I think this film will do very well. I'll be sad if I am wrong.

---

I think it's futile to compare the Phantom of the Opera to Rent. I think one of the reasons the Phantom film failed to attract people is because it proved that the only reason why it's still running it's because it is a spectacle show, chandelier falling on stage, a boat floating, plus casting a great Christine in the lead usually helps. The film didn't have any of this, in an era in which we're used to special effects on movies, whatever Phantom did was not enough to attract people-like I've said many times, its score and story are not as good as everybody thinks.
Rent is a modern show, its score is innovative, full of wit, opitimism, and realism. Its cast is young, talented, they know the material upside down, and the story relates to modern society. That's why I think people will be more attracted to it.

---

Many of my non-theatre friends had not heard of a RENT movie (of course they'd heard of the play...but had no idea a movie was being made.) I still don't think it will flop. If it gets good reviews like the play, people may start to notice it more.

---

I sure hope not.

However, i think it's going to be very hard to tell until it opens. I am somewhat amazed at how hardcore the marketing is. It seems like everyday there is something new---the blogs, the posters, the clips, the soundtrack, all that phone and wallpaper and all that stuff, the multiple trailers. However, when you think about it who is this stuff really targeted at. It seems to me, it's targeted at the people who would see this movie no matter what. What about the larger audience this movie will need to appeal to. because as it has been said many times in this thread, rentheads alone will not make this movie a success.
I am surprised that the Producers movie does not seem to have nearly the buzz and marketing that this movie does. So in my very optimistic way I hope that the studio is so confident in RENT and its success. It doesn't seem to add up. Not that Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick are the biggest movie stars you have ever heard of. But they (and Uma Thurman and Will Ferrell) are far more recognaziable to the average person than any member of the RENT cast. Not to mention Mel Brooks is a lot more familiar than Jonathan Larson. Maybe the studio feels that that is the exact reason, RENT needs so much publicity. I don't know how it all works.

I don't think it will be Chicago, but first and foremost I hope it's good and secondly I hope it does well. Whoever mentioned that movies almost have a lot of chances to make money is right, between international, dvd, cable, airline, etc.

The most important thing in any movie though is OPENING WEEKEND. It's where movies make 90% of their profit. That's going to make or break it.

As far as RENT vs the Producers and their very different marketing campaigns - something that people are determined to compare no matter what - I've actually started to believe that the studio releasing The Producers in North America, is being low key on purpose.

Tom O'Neal of Oscarwatch.com in his recent column on Oscar contenders, stated that The Producers has "fantastic" buzz that is growing. And he seemed to be talking about buzz within the industry, not that dubious internet buzz that was supposedly generated by the ONE advanced screening that was held in New Jersey.

As far as awards are concerned, that type of buzz is still infinitely more important to a film's success than anticipation generated by wired fans.

Getting industry insiders interested first COULD be a strategy. It certainly worked with a movie like American Beauty which had HUGE industry interest before the public had heard anything about it.

It's hard to know what the reception by the critics will be for RENT because there seem to be so few people within the film-making community without a direct interest in its success who actually have seen it. As of now, RENT is anticipated because RENTheads have made it so within their community.

But outside of RENTheads, it's hard to know if it really is a must-see movie.

Updated On: 9/30/05 at 08:58 AM

I think the RENT movie will be a success. Someone stated on this thread earlier that the target audience for RENT is smaller than Phantom. Think about this. Most theater goers are between 16 and 30. This is EXACTLY the target audience for RENT. Another thing to consider is this: Visitors to the Big Apple who are not theater fans go to see Phantom. They go to see it because it's been there so long, the hype, etc. But most of all they go because it's what they know. They would watch the show, take it in and say, "Oh, that was good", then leave it at that. I think the overall draw to Phantom (the musical) is more of a "sightseeing " spectacle. It's almost like being in NY and having to see the Empire State Building.

RENT is more of a nationwide CULT hit within the "target audience" mentioned above. People in this age group will go see it more becase of a few different factors. 1. They can't get to NY to see the live version. 2. Touring companies don't come to their areas. 3. It's a coming of age story that teens/preteens love to identify themselves with. 4. Their parents believe it's "too controversial" a theater experience and will not allow the opportunity for them to see the show. 5. Money -- cost of tickets is high.

The movie will certainly create new RENT fans and will definately create new RENT Heads. It will sort of be parallel to Rocky Horror Show situation. You will have your theater fans and you will have your movie fans; together, I believe, will make this movie a success.

---