Will "Rent" Be A Flop?- Page 2

[Barihunk]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 1:58pm

Personally, I don't think Rent's success or failure will ultimately be measured in box-office terms. When "Rent" opened on B-way in '96, the reason it garnered so much attention was it's depiction of present day topics in the musical idiom. Like "Show Boat", "West Side Story" and "Company" before it, "Rent" pushed the envelope for musical theatre. Whether "Rent" the film is a financial success is not, I think, as important as its impact on musical theatre both live and filmed. The fact that little Bobby or Suzy in Smalltown,USA will have the opportunity to see a Broadway musical they have more than likely never heard of, and from that experience, they decide to go to BigTown,USA to catch a touring musical - that is the real impact here in my opinion (as Pollyana-ish as it may be).
Hollywood had its worst summer season ever while Broaday posted record numbers. Movie audiences are clearly sending a message to Hollywood that they don't care for what they are offering. Will "Rent" and "Producers" be the antidote they are looking for? Who can tell. I certainly don't think that John Q Public cares about Tony Awards, Pulitzer Prizes, Drama Desk Awards and the like. He just wants to be entertained. But I think "Rent" - The Movie is already a success - it got made.

[Fosse76]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 2:05pm

Phantom flopped for several reasons, most notably marketing. Chicago had stellar reviews, and the limited release allowed them to build word-of-mouth. Phantom tried the same approach, but failed miserably. Most critics thought the film to be a fine translation of the stage musical, the problem was the material. Even the stage production doesn't get good reviews in noted cultural cities (New York, Chicago, Boston, San Francisco, etc.) and the film's reviews mirrored the stage reviews. The probelm: the stage show is a spectacle, the film is not. Word of mouth for the stage musical is praiseworthy whereas there is nothing in the film that could remotely be seen as spectacle. Mediocre reviews, no real word of mouth and poor marketing doomed the film. Not to mention its budget was $70 million.

RENT, on the otherhand, was $40 million. It has very good marketing. The stage show isn't considered a spectacle, so the expectations of grand special effects don't exist. The stage show received mostly good reviews, and its legion of fans are more psychotic than Phantom's. The fact that most of the OBC is in the film will get the fans to the movie, whereas Phantoms fanbase was split due to the casting, with many unhappy and boycotting the movie. RENT's modest budget will make it a hit, but it won't be a blcokbuster. Same with The Producers, though it seems like it's having troubles in the marketing department, and its limited released is being buried with the release of King Kong.

[jynni]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 2:11pm

"So many people have seen and loved the musical, and I am going to assume most people who bought the OBC recording of the CD will go see the movie."

While this may for the most part be true - it was also true for "Phantom". Actually even more so. PTO is about to become the longest running Broadway show and I'm willing to bet it's fan following is much larger than that of Rent.

The problem with the PTO movie (other than it being a mess) was that it also suffered from a horrible marketing campaign. I still run into people who don't even know the movie was made.

The team behind "Rent" is lightyears ahead of PTO in this respect. There has been coverage on TV and in several major entertainment magazines (EW loves them some Rent). The soundtrack has been made available almost two months before the movie's release.

Competition at the box office should also be considered - Harry Potter 4, the Narnia movie & The Producers (although its promoters seem to have gone to the Phantom school of marketing) all come out within a month of Rent's release. Add to that all the other winter "Oscarbait" releases.

[Amneris]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 2:24pm

I think it's hard to tell.. RENT has a HUGE fan base yes but, people in the midwestern states/southern states might not support it as much because of some of the issues it deals with. Thats sadly a large chunk of the box office. I hope it does well though.. it looks amazing.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 2:31pm

RENT definetely scores an A+ for its publicity team. THE PRODUCERS has had so little advance publicity, I was beginning to think it might be pushed to 2006, until I remembered that it was being marketed by Columbia. They are terrible at marketing their films, particularly their "Oscar hopefuls."

[Rentaholic2]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 2:39pm

"people in the midwestern states/southern states might not support it as much because of some of the issues it deals with."

Sadly, this is often true. I was wearing my Rent shirt one day, and one of my dad's friends, who had seen the show years ago said "I just can't get into a show about a drag-queen with AIDS who sings."

[Magdalene]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 2:48pm

That's sad...

[glenwj]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 3:01pm

Rent was only a hit on Broadway so there is not such a huge fan base.
It flopped here in Australia and I don't think it did well in London.

[ljay889]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 3:39pm

I still am not understanding why some of you are saying the Rent fans will save the film from being a flop? There aren't millions of hardcore Rent fans.

Rent did indeed flop outside of the US, that could effect the film's popularity outside of the US. CHICAGO on the other hand had productions literally all over the world, almost anywhere you imagine - Chicago played there (successfully) So, that definitely made the film very popular overseas.
Updated On: 9/29/05 at 03:39 PM

[Cheno'sBiggestfan]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 3:41pm

i really hope it doesnt flop

[grizzabella]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 3:45pm

I can't help but agree with Michael Bennett, Peach and others who are putting the success (or failure) of RENT on word-of-mouth and marketing. So far, the production team around RENT is doing a fabulous job, but how well it sells in middle America will have a lot to do with it. As someone said, RENT won dozons of awards that mean nothing to anyone outside of the theatre and literary communities - which aren't that big. If it can manage a cross-over, mainstream audience, it will do well. If not, it won't. In this country's current political climate, who can say?
To address the paltry and inefficient marketing effort (or lack of) around Phantom's release, not one theatre within 20 miles of my home had it on its marquee. Given that, plus a snowy, hard winter, I waited for the DVD. Whether Rentheads (and I like the show)like it or not, the number of screens showing it will have a direct impact on its success.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 4:19pm

I think if Rent is good (and everything I've heard is that it is) it will be a big hit. It's a bigger draw to the 49 and under demographic than POTO was. It's publicity is great. I think it will strike a chord with young people. Any controversy over "subject matter" will only boost the ticket sales. It's a shoo in for Golden Globe glory (unless The Producers takes the Musical or Comedy awards) and possibly other awards.

I think this film will do very well. I'll be sad if I am wrong.

[ZONEACE]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 4:37pm

the problem with the flops mentioned in the first post is that the movies themselves were poorly made. A Chorus Line failed because it sucked (the movie was bad and if you deny it you're wrong, the Phantom movie failed because of lack luster casting and acting (despite it being a visually beautiful film). If Rent is well made it will find success.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 6:02pm

I think it's futile to compare the Phantom of the Opera to Rent. I think one of the reasons the Phantom film failed to attract people is because it proved that the only reason why it's still running it's because it is a spectacle show, chandelier falling on stage, a boat floating, plus casting a great Christine in the lead usually helps. The film didn't have any of this, in an era in which we're used to special effects on movies, whatever Phantom did was not enough to attract people-like I've said many times, its score and story are not as good as everybody thinks.
Rent is a modern show, its score is innovative, full of wit, opitimism, and realism. Its cast is young, talented, they know the material upside down, and the story relates to modern society. That's why I think people will be more attracted to it.

[TennesseeTwang]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 6:32pm

I think a lot of RENT's commercial success will depend on the reception it gets from critics.

For the film to crossover to people who aren't theater geeks or RENTheads, it MUST get mostly good reviews.

My intuition tells me that the notices WILL be mostly good. But I don't think they will be great. In other words, nowhere near as rapturous as the reviews were when the show opended on Broadway almost 10 years ago.

So I guess I'm predicting a middling hit, but not a blockbuster.

As far as awards are concerned, there's no way to know until we've seen all of the competition.

[AlexL]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 7:26pm

Many of my non-theatre friends had not heard of a RENT movie (of course they'd heard of the play...but had no idea a movie was being made.) I still don't think it will flop. If it gets good reviews like the play, people may start to notice it more.

[Starburst]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 8:00pm

I think it'll do fine. I doubt it'll get any Oscar-nods, but it'll do well, and DVD sales will to fine with its fanbase. And in I'd say a fair majority have at least HEARD of Rent, and you'd have to live in a cave not to have heard "Seasons of Love" at some point in your life. It's something EVERY high school choir does, and girls start claiming that "Omigosh I LOVE Rent! We sang one of the songs in choir!"

*shrugs* It'll probably be big in our small musical-theatre community, but depending on the variety of things already mentioned, I don't think it'll be the next "Chicago."

[bwayfan3]

Posted: 9/29/05 at 8:26pm

I sure hope not.

However, i think it's going to be very hard to tell until it opens. I am somewhat amazed at how hardcore the marketing is. It seems like everyday there is something new---the blogs, the posters, the clips, the soundtrack, all that phone and wallpaper and all that stuff, the multiple trailers. However, when you think about it who is this stuff really targeted at. It seems to me, it's targeted at the people who would see this movie no matter what. What about the larger audience this movie will need to appeal to. because as it has been said many times in this thread, rentheads alone will not make this movie a success.
I am surprised that the Producers movie does not seem to have nearly the buzz and marketing that this movie does. So in my very optimistic way I hope that the studio is so confident in RENT and its success. It doesn't seem to add up. Not that Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick are the biggest movie stars you have ever heard of. But they (and Uma Thurman and Will Ferrell) are far more recognaziable to the average person than any member of the RENT cast. Not to mention Mel Brooks is a lot more familiar than Jonathan Larson. Maybe the studio feels that that is the exact reason, RENT needs so much publicity. I don't know how it all works.

I don't think it will be Chicago, but first and foremost I hope it's good and secondly I hope it does well. Whoever mentioned that movies almost have a lot of chances to make money is right, between international, dvd, cable, airline, etc.

The most important thing in any movie though is OPENING WEEKEND. It's where movies make 90% of their profit. That's going to make or break it.

[blaxx]

Posted: 9/30/05 at 1:55am

"...when a movie like this deserves a Oscar."

This is very cute, when it hasn't even come out. Even for the hard core fans it could be the worst movie they've ever seen.

One thing that I just remembered is that the film may have a bigger international audience than the stage production, which really never had much success outside the USA... I think a film version will be more appreciated in other countries.

[TennesseeTwang]

Posted: 9/30/05 at 8:58am

As far as RENT vs the Producers and their very different marketing campaigns - something that people are determined to compare no matter what - I've actually started to believe that the studio releasing The Producers in North America, is being low key on purpose.

Tom O'Neal of Oscarwatch.com in his recent column on Oscar contenders, stated that The Producers has "fantastic" buzz that is growing. And he seemed to be talking about buzz within the industry, not that dubious internet buzz that was supposedly generated by the ONE advanced screening that was held in New Jersey.

As far as awards are concerned, that type of buzz is still infinitely more important to a film's success than anticipation generated by wired fans.

Getting industry insiders interested first COULD be a strategy. It certainly worked with a movie like American Beauty which had HUGE industry interest before the public had heard anything about it.

It's hard to know what the reception by the critics will be for RENT because there seem to be so few people within the film-making community without a direct interest in its success who actually have seen it. As of now, RENT is anticipated because RENTheads have made it so within their community.

But outside of RENTheads, it's hard to know if it really is a must-see movie.
Updated On: 9/30/05 at 08:58 AM

[Magdalene]

Posted: 9/30/05 at 9:58am

What's going to help the Producers is the fact that Lane/broderick will be in the Odd Couple at the same time the movie comes out, so their higher profile will help sell the movie (plus they will be able to hit all the morning shows!)

[SkierRob02]

Posted: 9/30/05 at 3:27pm

I think the RENT movie will be a success. Someone stated on this thread earlier that the target audience for RENT is smaller than Phantom. Think about this. Most theater goers are between 16 and 30. This is EXACTLY the target audience for RENT. Another thing to consider is this: Visitors to the Big Apple who are not theater fans go to see Phantom. They go to see it because it's been there so long, the hype, etc. But most of all they go because it's what they know. They would watch the show, take it in and say, "Oh, that was good", then leave it at that. I think the overall draw to Phantom (the musical) is more of a "sightseeing " spectacle. It's almost like being in NY and having to see the Empire State Building.

RENT is more of a nationwide CULT hit within the "target audience" mentioned above. People in this age group will go see it more becase of a few different factors. 1. They can't get to NY to see the live version. 2. Touring companies don't come to their areas. 3. It's a coming of age story that teens/preteens love to identify themselves with. 4. Their parents believe it's "too controversial" a theater experience and will not allow the opportunity for them to see the show. 5. Money -- cost of tickets is high.

The movie will certainly create new RENT fans and will definately create new RENT Heads. It will sort of be parallel to Rocky Horror Show situation. You will have your theater fans and you will have your movie fans; together, I believe, will make this movie a success.