There is really no way to game the system with in-person lotteries. I've been with a lot of people and won, tiny groups and lost, and some shows change the number of tickets they give out every time, too. If you're in NYC, there is pretty much no risk or cost... show up two minutes until the draw, enter your name, and then either grab a quick meal before showtime or go about your day.
If you want a sure thing, and to know in advance, buy a ticket.