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Another double-digit lead for Obama in national poll

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#2

bammy loses another double-digit lead in a national poll

Posted: 8/20/08 at 9:16am

the double digit lead is now down to 2. i think i see why y'all were so apoplectic about those doggone "negative" ads.

i cannot get the la times direct link to open either here or at home so the bastards might have blocked me from ever reading their paper again after the edwards brouhaha.

anyway, here's the tpm link...
bammy 45, mccain 43
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#3

bammy loses another double-digit lead in a national poll

Posted: 8/20/08 at 9:20am

Funny, Reuters doesn't quite see it that way.
McCain leads by 5 points.
"Impossible is just a big word thrown around by small men who find it easier to live in the world they've been given than to explore the power they have to change it. Impossible is not a fact. It's an opinion. Impossible is not a declaration. It's a dare. Impossible is potential. Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing.” ~ Muhammad Ali
#4

bammy loses another double-digit lead in a national poll

Posted: 8/20/08 at 9:35am

well, everyone knows that reuters is the defacto mouthpiece for the mccain campaign, bb.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#5

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 10:18am

None of these polls show the only thing that matters the Electoral College.

As always these polls are kinda vague. First of all pollsters are not allowed to call cellphones. While McCain's entire "base" probably has landlines a large percentage of Obama's do not. These are the young, the poor and minorities. I imagine people in the demo with landlines is quite different than those without and this speaks to the "horse race" we may or may not have here.

That said, the only thing you need to worry about is the ELECTORAL COLLEGE. Obama has a fantastic head start there. If the election were held today he would win by a nice margin.

Updated On: 8/20/08 at 10:18 AM

#6

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 10:26am

We know these are sort of meaningless at this point. Obama is going to get a big bump when he announces his veep, and then from his convention. The same will happen with McCain the following week.

Then the numbers will level out, and we'll be back to the dogfight that we (strangely, as Obama should be up by at least 10 points) have.

Incidentally, mejusthaving fun mentions the electoral college and Obama's sound lead there. Sorry, but, using the latest poll numbers, when all the battleground states are factored in, McCain wins 274-264. Take a look:
Real Clear Politics electoral map
#12

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:39am

I think the Obama campaign would be very stupid to ignore their recent drop in the polls.

Personally I think this would be taken care of by having Hillary as his vice president. But I don't think it will happen.
#13

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:54am

"I think the Obama campaign would be very stupid to ignore their recent drop in the polls."

First of all they are not ignoring anything about this campaign. Obama's team has worked diligently to create and proceed with a holistic approach.

As I have mentioned before these polls are leaving out vasts amounts of people and the samples are not saying much about people that lack landlines.

BUT even using these polls Obama has maintained a consistency throughout.
#15

why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 12:26pm

I just want to take a moment and thank patronus for preserving this. i probably would have forgotten that i wrote it.

"it will be dramatic with 18-29 yer-olds making up 25% of the electorate and african-americans exploding to account for 25 % as well. granted they'll have to kill a lot of whites and old people in order for that to happen, but when it's in service to saint bammy, what's a massacre here or there?"
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#16

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 12:31pm

Nah !

I'll throw in my $.02

I think it's still a dead heat. The kind of election that Ralph Nader would love to stir up if only he still could. Things change as you get closer to the election and the shift will likely be toward the conservative. Why? because the people with the stronger feelings about this have already decided. The late deciders usually lean toward conservative. (They read "conservative" as synonymous with "safe". )

It's interesting and telling to me, that the O supporters are in the Northeast and West Coast, while the Mc supporters are in Bible Land, the Midwest and South.



poll tracking
#17

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:03pm

I'm just not a huge fan of polling practices. The primary season showed how off they can be.

The media cannot not have a "dead heat" or a horse race. It doesn't sell ads. What amazes me is watching pundits talk ad nauseum about these polls that change on a dime and ignore the much larger picture.

Certainly Obama has a lot of work to do but he is in a really great place right now. McCain on the other hand has to work like hell to win. Should he pick Lieberman what a mess that will be.
#18

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:14pm

To begin with, I'll restate my position (borrowed from Pal Joey) that any polls that don't support my candidate are inherently invalid.

Having said that, any polls that have been taken that have included Nader and Barr have shown better results for Obama, as compared to polling the same group with just Obama & McCain. The thought is that those who don't have a comfort level with Obama would vote for Nader or Barr rather than McCain, given the choice.

Even more than most, polls this year will be questionable (except those that support my candidate). For better or worse, this year is different from any other, and the assumptions built into the polls are based on the demmographics of prior elections. Will Obama change the electorate appreciably in swing states with voter registration? Are folks being honest about voting for the black guy? Will this finally be the year when the young vote turns out?
"It does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are 20 gods or no god. It neither picks my pocket, nor breaks my leg." -- Thomas Jefferson
#19

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:16pm

I think both have their work cut out for them.

One thing that may ultimately kill Mc is his own negative campaigning. Where I've been, negative campaigners historically can not be trusted and are still not to be trusted. How that applies to swing votes in America, I really don't know. But my instincts are that if Mc relies heavily on negative campaigning, it will kill him. Negative worked for the Bushes, but things have changed since then.

I think the reason for Mc creeping up in the polls recently are as I said. Hard liners have decided. Late deciders tend toward "conservative". But it could also be, and O should be prepared for, a Religious Right Rally.

Updated On: 8/20/08 at 01:16 PM

#21

Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:46pm

Negative worked for the Bushes, but things have changed since then.

Oh, phew! For a moment there, I was afraid that things were still the same!

Krissy--I'm so RELIEVED to know that negative campaigning no longer works because "things have changed." Yay.
#22

why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:53pm

in the previous post, the role of papalovesmambo was played by paljoey.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#23

why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:57pm

Why wasn't there an announcement or a slip in the Playbill? Papa, I think your entitled to an additional 1/8th of your salary.
"Just a Guy. Your feelings are touching. I am gladdened by the thought that you will one day wind up 6 feet under as we all do." - MrRoxy ------ "I do not suggest you walk out the door onto a New York street with your vulnerable child part exposed and not protected..." - Jason Bennett

Updated On: 8/20/08 at 01:57 PM

#24

why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 2:00pm

in my contract any such things are automatically contributed to bc/efa under the name john "i love a good chorus boy" mccain.
r.i.p. marco, my guardian angel.

...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty

pray to st. jude

i'm a sonic reducer

he was the gimmicky sort

fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
#25

why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?

Posted: 8/20/08 at 2:04pm

I've never heard of Lieberman referred to as 'a good chorus boy' before.
"It does me no injury for my neighbour to say there are 20 gods or no god. It neither picks my pocket, nor breaks my leg." -- Thomas Jefferson

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