Another double-digit lead for Obama in national poll
Another double-digit lead for Obama in national poll
Another double-digit lead for Obama in national poll#1
Posted: 6/24/08 at 7:54pm
The LA Times poll shows Obama with a 12% lead over McCain in a two-man race. When Barr and Nader are included, lead goes to 15%.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story
bammy loses another double-digit lead in a national poll#2
Posted: 8/20/08 at 9:16am
the double digit lead is now down to 2. i think i see why y'all were so apoplectic about those doggone "negative" ads.
i cannot get the la times direct link to open either here or at home so the bastards might have blocked me from ever reading their paper again after the edwards brouhaha.
anyway, here's the tpm link...
bammy 45, mccain 43
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Broadway Legend Joined: 2/9/04
bammy loses another double-digit lead in a national poll#2
Posted: 8/20/08 at 9:20am
Funny, Reuters doesn't quite see it that way.
McCain leads by 5 points.
bammy loses another double-digit lead in a national poll#3
Posted: 8/20/08 at 9:35amwell, everyone knows that reuters is the defacto mouthpiece for the mccain campaign, bb.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/12/06
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#4
Posted: 8/20/08 at 10:18am
None of these polls show the only thing that matters the Electoral College.
As always these polls are kinda vague. First of all pollsters are not allowed to call cellphones. While McCain's entire "base" probably has landlines a large percentage of Obama's do not. These are the young, the poor and minorities. I imagine people in the demo with landlines is quite different than those without and this speaks to the "horse race" we may or may not have here.
That said, the only thing you need to worry about is the ELECTORAL COLLEGE. Obama has a fantastic head start there. If the election were held today he would win by a nice margin.
Updated On: 8/20/08 at 10:18 AM
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#5
Posted: 8/20/08 at 10:26am
We know these are sort of meaningless at this point. Obama is going to get a big bump when he announces his veep, and then from his convention. The same will happen with McCain the following week.
Then the numbers will level out, and we'll be back to the dogfight that we (strangely, as Obama should be up by at least 10 points) have.
Incidentally, mejusthaving fun mentions the electoral college and Obama's sound lead there. Sorry, but, using the latest poll numbers, when all the battleground states are factored in, McCain wins 274-264. Take a look:
Real Clear Politics electoral map
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/12/06
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#6
Posted: 8/20/08 at 10:35am
Uhmm hold up. McCain takes Ohio AND Florida? "but using the latest poll numbers," what Poll numbers?
RealClearPolitics Electoral College
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#7
Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:11amI guess RealClearPolitics isn't really clear at all.
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#8
Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:15amThe map I linked gave the toss-up states to the candidate currently ahead. mejusthavingfun's map did not.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/12/06
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#9
Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:17am"currently ahead" in what?
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#10
Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:26am
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/10/electoral.map/index.html
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#11
Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:39am
I think the Obama campaign would be very stupid to ignore their recent drop in the polls.
Personally I think this would be taken care of by having Hillary as his vice president. But I don't think it will happen.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/12/06
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#12
Posted: 8/20/08 at 11:54am
"I think the Obama campaign would be very stupid to ignore their recent drop in the polls."
First of all they are not ignoring anything about this campaign. Obama's team has worked diligently to create and proceed with a holistic approach.
As I have mentioned before these polls are leaving out vasts amounts of people and the samples are not saying much about people that lack landlines.
BUT even using these polls Obama has maintained a consistency throughout.
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#13
Posted: 8/20/08 at 12:04pm
Electoral-vote.com : Obama 264 McCain 261 Ties 13
It's gradually gotten worse and worse for Obama pollingwise.
why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?#14
Posted: 8/20/08 at 12:26pm
I just want to take a moment and thank patronus for preserving this. i probably would have forgotten that i wrote it.
"it will be dramatic with 18-29 yer-olds making up 25% of the electorate and african-americans exploding to account for 25 % as well. granted they'll have to kill a lot of whites and old people in order for that to happen, but when it's in service to saint bammy, what's a massacre here or there?"
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#15
Posted: 8/20/08 at 12:31pm
Nah !
I'll throw in my $.02
I think it's still a dead heat. The kind of election that Ralph Nader would love to stir up if only he still could. Things change as you get closer to the election and the shift will likely be toward the conservative. Why? because the people with the stronger feelings about this have already decided. The late deciders usually lean toward conservative. (They read "conservative" as synonymous with "safe". )
It's interesting and telling to me, that the O supporters are in the Northeast and West Coast, while the Mc supporters are in Bible Land, the Midwest and South.
poll tracking
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/12/06
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#16
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:03pm
I'm just not a huge fan of polling practices. The primary season showed how off they can be.
The media cannot not have a "dead heat" or a horse race. It doesn't sell ads. What amazes me is watching pundits talk ad nauseum about these polls that change on a dime and ignore the much larger picture.
Certainly Obama has a lot of work to do but he is in a really great place right now. McCain on the other hand has to work like hell to win. Should he pick Lieberman what a mess that will be.
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#17
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:14pm
To begin with, I'll restate my position (borrowed from Pal Joey) that any polls that don't support my candidate are inherently invalid.
Having said that, any polls that have been taken that have included Nader and Barr have shown better results for Obama, as compared to polling the same group with just Obama & McCain. The thought is that those who don't have a comfort level with Obama would vote for Nader or Barr rather than McCain, given the choice.
Even more than most, polls this year will be questionable (except those that support my candidate). For better or worse, this year is different from any other, and the assumptions built into the polls are based on the demmographics of prior elections. Will Obama change the electorate appreciably in swing states with voter registration? Are folks being honest about voting for the black guy? Will this finally be the year when the young vote turns out?
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#18
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:16pm
I think both have their work cut out for them.
One thing that may ultimately kill Mc is his own negative campaigning. Where I've been, negative campaigners historically can not be trusted and are still not to be trusted. How that applies to swing votes in America, I really don't know. But my instincts are that if Mc relies heavily on negative campaigning, it will kill him. Negative worked for the Bushes, but things have changed since then.
I think the reason for Mc creeping up in the polls recently are as I said. Hard liners have decided. Late deciders tend toward "conservative". But it could also be, and O should be prepared for, a Religious Right Rally.
Updated On: 8/20/08 at 01:16 PM
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#19
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:20pmmadbrian , the Nader of today in ineffectual. I was referring to the Nader of old.
Why isn't the media talking Electoral College?#20
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:46pm
Negative worked for the Bushes, but things have changed since then.
Oh, phew! For a moment there, I was afraid that things were still the same!
Krissy--I'm so RELIEVED to know that negative campaigning no longer works because "things have changed." Yay.
why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?#21
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:53pmin the previous post, the role of papalovesmambo was played by paljoey.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
Broadway Legend Joined: 6/20/03
why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?#22
Posted: 8/20/08 at 1:57pm
Why wasn't there an announcement or a slip in the Playbill? Papa, I think your entitled to an additional 1/8th of your salary.
why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?#23
Posted: 8/20/08 at 2:00pmin my contract any such things are automatically contributed to bc/efa under the name john "i love a good chorus boy" mccain.
...global warming can manifest itself as heat, cool, precipitation, storms, drought, wind, or any other phenomenon, much like a shapeshifter. -- jim geraghty
pray to st. jude
i'm a sonic reducer
he was the gimmicky sort
fenchurch=mejusthavingfun=magwildwood=mmousefan=bkcollector=bradmajors=somethingtotalkabout: the fenchurch mpd collective
why are bammy's numbers dropping faster than britney's undies?#24
Posted: 8/20/08 at 2:04pmI've never heard of Lieberman referred to as 'a good chorus boy' before.
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