BROKEBACK and the righty pundits

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 1:28pm

Jan. 23, 2006 | Morning Briefing:
Revisiting "Brokeback" predictions: It's fun when blowhard pundits are wrong. It's especially satisfying when the ones who claim to speak for all of America are wrong, because it usually means that the world is not quite the grim, retrograde place they want us to believe it is. Take, for example, claims that, as Bill O'Reilly told his viewers back in December, the mass public would not go see "Brokeback Mountain" because it shows two men getting it on. As O'Reilly put it: "They're not going to go see the gay cowboys in Montana. I'm sorry. They're not going to do it."

But they are (even, reportedly, in Missoula, Mont.). The greater public, it turns out, is not as freaked out about boys kissing boys as O'Reilly or his colleagues at Fox are, and has made the film a qualified hit. This past weekend, according to reports, "Brokeback" finished at No. 5, despite still appearing in only 1,196 theaters -- twice as many as the week before, though still a modest number. The week's top-grossing "Underworld: Evolution," for example, debuted in more than 3,000 theaters. "Brokeback" also leapt ahead of the season's two big blockbusters, "The Chronicles of Narnia" (No. 7) and "King Kong" (No. 11), both of which have grossed far more since their release, but have also had long runs in many more theaters (2,757 and 2,205 last week, respectively). And while "Brokeback" will surely never approach either of those films' box office numbers, its profit margin looks awfully good; "Brokeback" has so far grossed $42 million, but was made for just $14 million. ("Narnia" has grossed a remarkable $271 million, but cost $180 million; "King Kong" has brought in $209 million, but was made for a whopping $207 million.) Should "Brokeback" get the expected Oscar attention, its numbers could swell bigger than O'Reilly's giant head.

Looking back at the following bold predictions that "Brokeback" would bomb, you see not just wishful thinking –- and a paranoid fear that it's a gay marriage treatise in shepherd's clothing -- but also the attempt by political pundits to create a conventional wisdom out of whole cloth. (See also: WMD, Swift Boat Veterans and the "war" on Christmas.) At least it failed this time. Here's a sampling of the best of the bad calls:

"But I don't care about the movie. I'm going to make the prediction. The movie will get a lot of Academy Awards, because again Hollywood is very sympathetic to the gay movement ... But I will submit to you this movie does not do big box office outside the big cities. It won't. They're not going to go see the gay cowboys in Montana. I'm sorry. They're not going to do it."

-- Bill O'Reilly, "The O'Reilly Factor," Dec. 20, 2005

"Take a look at 'Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe.' That film made more in its first week than 'Brokeback Mountain' will make in its entire run."

-- Michael Medved, film "critic" and conservative pundit, "The O'Reilly Factor," Dec. 20, 2005. ["Narnia" grossed nearly $82 million in its first week; it's quite likely "Brokeback" will top that not long after it opens in wider release.]

"So, one of the big movies [at the Golden Globes] is 'Brokeback Mountain.' Now, I believe this is a Hollywood favorite even though it may not be a box office favorite. Are they going to just lavish this movie with awards?"

-- John Gibson, "The Big Story With John Gibson," Jan. 16, 2006

"I've been getting no small amount of grief about the fact that I've been making fun of 'Brokeback Mountain,' the gay cowboy movie. I've been making fun of it because it seems to me to be a movie in defiance of its audience. I don't think it's going to be a box office hit. It will make no money at least in Hollywood terms. I'm sure it will be a critical hit. Hollywood may, in fact, want to give every Oscar it can find to the first gay cowboy movie. But I think most people do not want to go into a darkened room with a tub of popcorn and munch away watching two guys get it on. I just don't ... I still think it's a gay agenda movie and as such it might sweep the Oscars. I just have my doubts about whether America will make it an actual box office hit."

-- Gibson, "The Big Story With John Gibson," Jan. 2, 2006

[Responding to the question: "Will America embrace this theme of Romeo and Romeo, Michael?"] "I don't think so. I think it will be very much embraced by critics and by liberal Hollywood. And of course, there is an attempt to create controversy about it."

-- Medved, "Paula Zahn Now," Dec. 13, 2005

"'Brokeback Mountain' will have been seen in the theaters by 18 people, but the right 18 and will win the Academy Award."

-- Charles Krauthammer, "Fox Special Report With Brit Hume," Jan. 2, 2006

"I mean, look, 'Alexander' was doomed when word got around that it had a bisexual aspect to it. People don't want to see that. They don't want to see two guys going at it. It's that simple ... I think Ang Lee is off his rocker if he thinks he can have the same commercial success with two cowboys instead of a cowboy and a cowgirl, as other movies do."

-- Robert Knight, director of the Culture and Family Institute at Concerned Women for America, in Salon, Dec. 7, 2005

"'Brokeback Mountain,' starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Heath Ledger as gay cowboys, will be a critical favorite but a box office dud."

-- Ben Shapiro, baby pundit and "syndicated columnist," Dec. 1, 2004


--Kerry Lauerman

[popcultureboy]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 1:32pm

Do people really think Alexander's bisexual slant was what doomed that pic?

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 1:42pm

Well, my favorite part is it's going to win awards because Hollywood loves a good gay agenda film.
Aside from a few actors picking up awards for playing tortured 'mos, what homosexual agenda-filled movie has raked in the trophies?
I'd love for Ang Lee to go on The O'Reilly Factor and beat that little sh*t senseless with his statue after the Oscars, though.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 1:48pm

Thank you, borstal. EXACTLY why I have taken the stance on this film that I have.

[SorryGrateful]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 1:49pm

Bill O'Reilly is such a pompous ASS!

[MrMidwest]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 1:51pm

O'Reilly referred to the film as a big budget film from a big studio on his radio show. I'm really not sure whether he's really that clueless or if he just hopes his listeners are even more clueless.

[luvtheEmcee]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 2:07pm

I'd love for Ang Lee to go on The O'Reilly Factor and beat that little sh*t senseless with his statue after the Oscars, though.

Best. Image. Ever.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 2:13pm

Amen, emcee!

I find it just a TITCH ironic that these men are waxing eloquent about what an insignificant film it is, but they sure seem threatened by it.

I remember seeing Yahoo message board posts like--"It won't make 20 million! No one wants to see a film about fags"---basically.

Well, these FOOLS are wrong!

[lildogs]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 2:18pm

Good call MrMidwest...O'Reilly counts on his folks being sheep...

Why is it that the right has such a hard time admitting they've been/are wrong?

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 2:41pm

Remember, O'Reilly's also great at creating fake information.
Anyone remember much about that fake French newspaper he quoted? I forget the circumstances offhand...

[Plum]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 2:45pm

You guys, I'm sure the sequence where Jack and Ennis have a shootout with tentacled aliens in space really blew up the budget.

[Calvin]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 2:53pm

The French newspaper thing was something he used to show how much his boycott had cut into sales of French wine. Then again, what would you expect from a Fox News journalist who used to work at (one of those crappy shows -- was it A Current Affair? Hard Copy? The Wink Martindale Variety Hour?)

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 3:11pm

And don't forget! They won an Emmy while he was there!
Ok, so it wasn't an Emmy. It was a Peabody.
Wait, so it wasn't a Peabody...you people are evil for caring that he got the award wrong! It's just liberal treachery to make him seem like a liar! You always do this!

[SorryGrateful]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 3:13pm

My dad watches Bill O'Reilly every night and loves him. I'm not allowed to go home to visit anymore because the carpet is too stained with my own vomit.

[MargoChanning]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 3:15pm

Actually it turned out that it wasn't a Peabody, it was a Polk (whatever the hell that is). O'Reilly has NEVER won a Peabody -- though he's said repeatedly that he did.

Updated On: 1/23/06 at 03:15 PM

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 3:43pm

It's probably the journalistic equivalent of the People's CHoice Award, Margo.
And doesn't he STILL lie about it?

[Luscious]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 7:00pm

David Letterman to Bill O'Reilly:

"I'm not smart enough to debate you point to point on this, but I have the feeling that about 60 percent of what you say is crap."

Probably closer to 80 percent, but couldn't have said it better myself.

[StickToPriest]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 9:26pm

"Actually it turned out that it wasn't a Peabody, it was a Polk (whatever the hell that is). O'Reilly has NEVER won a Peabody -- though he's said repeatedly that he did."

See Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them.

[Calvin]

Posted: 1/23/06 at 10:18pm

He probably just likes people to pee on his body and thinks that counts.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 1/24/06 at 1:33am

Hey don't be dissin' waterspor--umm, I mean... nevermind..

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 1/24/06 at 1:34am

LMAO!!

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 1/24/06 at 1:40am

Celebrate good times, come on!

[Auggie27]

Posted: 1/24/06 at 8:11am

And of course, the ever sweet-tempered traditional values arbiter John Gibson, the red-faced blowhard obsessed with the theft of Christmas, was even uglier.

He asks what's worse, seeing fingernails removed in SYRIANA, or two guys kissing in BROKEBACK. The "culture of life" speaks again.

Big shock that torture, rather than expressed love, is their illicit image of choice. Its one of the "traditional values" currently defining the country.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 1/24/06 at 10:20am

He didnt even win a Polk award...Inside Edition won it after he left for a story he didnt work on.

I am sure he and Medved are doin' it.