CapnHook's Oscar Predictions Part II

[CapnHook]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 5:57pm

I did predictions based on buzz earlier in the year. Now here are predictions based on buzz and movie trailers & releases.

LOCKED:
MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA
MUNICH

PROBABLE:
ALL THE KING'S MEN
CAPOTE
BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
PRIDE & PREJUDICE

POSSIBLE:
WALK THE LINE
CINDERELLA MAN
JARHEAD

DARK HORSE:
PROOF
CRASH
THE PRODUCERS
RENT
GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK

My picks, based on trailers:
1) MEMOIRS OF GEISHA
2) BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
3) CAPOTE
4) RENT (with a bias, but the trailer is truly amazing)
5) ALL THE KING'S MEN

[robbiej]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 5:58pm

I think coming out of Toronto, BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is a lock.

[broadway86]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:01pm

Am I the only one who disliked Cinderella Man?

[MrMidwest]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:05pm

I'm thinking Walk the Line is more than possible.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:20pm

Although Brokeback seems like a very beautiful film, it has that whole "gay" thing going on. Unfortunately, that DOES slightly decrease its chances. Hopefully that won't be the outcome.

WALK THE LINE looks good and seems to have strong acting, but I don't think it'll be a main contender.

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:22pm

"Although Brokeback seems like a very beautiful film, it has that whole "gay" thing going on. Unfortunately, that DOES slightly decrease its chances."

Didn't hurt PHILADELPHIA.

[CapnHook]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:29pm

A valid point. But Philadelphia was a different movie. (AND it had Tom Hanks! ) In the case of Brokeback, it's different. In a way, it's odd. If the story were about a heterosexual couple, it probable wouldn't be as much of a contender as it is. But since it is about a homosexual relationship - it has that edge. The Oscar factor.

But I still say it's not Locked.

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:37pm

Capn - it IS an Ang Lee film.

[EponineThenardier]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:44pm

I have a feeling that the Critics won't like Pride and Prejudice (although I personally am rooting for it). And I agree that "Walk the Line" is very likely to get a bed picture nom.

[robbiej]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:47pm

I have friends who saw it in Toronto. From their words and other reviews, I'm confident in my 'lock' assessment.

Updated On: 9/21/05 at 06:47 PM

Posted: 9/21/05 at 6:49pm

It certainly had everybody buzzing up there - I read about it all over the place!

[Ellie3]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:02pm

Venice too, don't forget!

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:03pm

Grand Prize in Venice, wasn't it?

[Ellie3]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:05pm

The Golden Lion no less.

[LionessInWinter]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:10pm

<<PRIDE & PREJUDICE >>>

IMO, this won't and shouldn't get any noms except possibly cinematography, costumes, and maybe set design.
The acting was unremarkable all around, except maybe Brenda Blethyn. But in all fairness, I'm comparing her to Alison Steadman in the BBC production.
And Matthew MacFayden didn't have a lot to work with until later in the film.

Proof may get one for Gwyneth as the Academy seems to luuuuuv her. While I thought she was v. good, I thought she was more remarkable in Sylvia, though I didn't like that movie much. I really enjoyed Proof, though I didn't see the play to compare. And anyway, a film should be judged on it's own.

I'd love to see a supporting actor nom for William Hurt in A History of Violence. A small part, but wow, thought he was fabulous. Where has he been?!

I'm sorry I couldn't catch Brokeback Mtn at Toronto. Just didn't fit in my schedule.

[EvelynNesbit1906]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:10pm

With the possible exception of Crowe, Giamatti and a few techs, Cinderella Man is dead. Poor box office, early release date and much stronger buzz surrounding the fall and winter releases.

All the King's Men, Memoirs of a Geisha, and Rent may all face the challenge of being Sony films; Sony can't push them all equally. FYI: Revolution has hired someone (who works independently of Sony) to assess Rent's Oscar chances because Sony is putting more of its campaign money behind Memoirs and ATKM. Pushing both Memoirs and ATKM in the acting categories works because Memoirs is a female-dominated film whereas ATKM is a male-dominated film.

I give the edge to Memoirs for Best Picture because it will probably have the support of the guilds (costumes, art direction, etc) more than either Rent or ATKM. Unless it turns out to be a bad film, and I don't think it will...

EDIT: In the end, I think Dawson's performance in RENT will receive more acclaim than Zhang's performance in MEMOIRS. So... I give the edge to Dawson. Surprisingly good (sometimes even great) singing. Probably great dancing. Brings something new to the character. Gets really sick and almost dies. African-American/Latina... Halle Berry can't be the last.
Updated On: 9/21/05 at 07:10 PM

[LionessInWinter]

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:15pm

Sorry, one more thought on P&P...

"And Matthew MacFayden didn't have a lot to work with until later in the film."
Mainly because the script was not so hot, IMO, and I just read Emma Thompson was a script doctor on it.

From what I could tell with the audience, it went over better with a fairly young crowd, who I'd bet hadn't seen the BBC miniseries, or for all I know, hadn't read the book.
To me, it's really a book that can't be condensed well into a 2 hr movie and do it justice.



Updated On: 9/21/05 at 07:15 PM

Posted: 9/21/05 at 7:25pm

Lioness - I agree about the length of time needed to tell the story. And I'll never be able to get Jennifer Ehle and Colin Firth out of my head, so I can't be objective about it anyway!

[CapnHook]

Posted: 9/22/05 at 12:12am

I don't think Pride & Prejudice will get a nod, and personally I thought the trailer was too "chick flick-ish" to be the type of movie to get a nod. However, the buzz is remarkable.

Phillip Seymour Hoffman will be getting a nod for his portrayal of Truman Capote. That's the most definite lock-in this year.

True, Paltrow will probably get a nod for PROOF. PROOF may also get adapted screenplay nod - but I don't think it will in the end.

Posted: 9/22/05 at 12:15am

The buzz for P&P might just be because they think they should - literary pedigree, and all that.

[LionessInWinter]

Posted: 9/22/05 at 12:44am

While I didn't think it was a great adaptation of P&P, I have to admit, I did find it fairly entertaining anyway.

I agree about PSH in Capote. He blew me away in the trailer and some clips on TV in Toronto.

I also thought Proof might get one for adapted screenplay. Bet Geisha's a lock on that one, too.

And DGrant mentioned Colin Firth... his new movie Where the Truth Lies, while also entertaining enough overall, was a mess. Great performances by he and Kevin Bacon, though.
I don't think Alison Lohman was as bad as I've seen written (I went in expecting to really dislike her in it), but she wasn't right for the part. I thought she was ok. Atom Egoyan said he picked her because she could play 11 and 26 (or close to those ages). Since she was 26 99% of the time, I think he should've made sure there was a strong enough actress for that bit.

And it wasn't NC-17 worthy.

[EponineThenardier]

Posted: 9/22/05 at 2:44am

Has anyone gotten to see Jarhead? And if so do you think Peter (robbed of an Oscar for too long) Sarsgaard will get a nom?