Current electoral map projection

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 9:34am

Current electoral map projection shows Obama ahead by 287 - 227 (24 tied - Virginia and Indiana). Frankly, I don't put much stock in these, but I guess it's better to be ahead than behind. These numbers are much better for Obama than they were a few weeks ago.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Unknown User]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 9:58am

I like looking at these maps when they're like this one. I'd guess after Grampy McSame's speech last night, it looks even blue-er today.
Updated On: 6/4/08 at 09:58 AM

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 10:09am

Obviously, the impact of last night will not be reflected in polls for days, if not weeks. Whoever is advising McCain should tell him he should not give speeches on the same nights that Obama does.

[javero]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 10:23am

I have a sneaking suspicion that Obama will carry the VA-NC-SC block. VA is definitely in play and could figure as prominently as OH in determining the next president.

Here in DC the buzz is that Obama will pick up either the current VA governor Tim Kaine or the US Senator from VA Jim Webb. This is all speculation of course but the Dems are doing everything in their power to flip VA to blue this general election.

I personally believe that Michigan is staying blue as well.

Updated On: 6/4/08 at 10:23 AM

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 12:30pm

Yeah, Obama has started beating McCain. Hopefully, McCain will continue to give speeches like last night!

[WOSQ]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 2:07pm

I think both "undecideds", Va and Ind, will go to the GOP. I also think Missouri will.

The election could be decided in Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada.

What I find most interesting in these early polls is that some states with a solid GOP history are not solid for Republicans even at this early date: SC, VA, Texas, Miss, LA, Indiana. I think all of them will eventually go to the GOP but not by the usual margins.

[Liverpool]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 2:32pm

So, about McCain's speech last night, was it not the single most boring public address in the history of this country? I LITERALLY stopped hearing words. It became formless white noise.

[javero]

Posted: 6/4/08 at 3:13pm

"What I find most interesting in these early polls is that some states with a solid GOP history are not solid for Republicans even at this early date: SC, VA, Texas, Miss, LA, Indiana."

WOSQ--what leads you to believe that SC & VA can't be flipped over to the blue side this unique election year?

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 6:48am

Today's updated map shows Obama with a 317 - 221 advantage.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 8:55am

It's interesting - CNN has a electoral map that has very different results. I wonder which is more accurate.

My guess would be CNNs - the other map was very wrong for the last presidential election



cnn electoral map

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 9:06am

I've adopted Pal Joey's stance and choose only to buy into polls that support my views, so CNN's map is clearly flawed.

[South Fl Marc]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 9:14am

I, on the other hand, tend not to believe any polls. They have all been wrong on many primary elections this year.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 9:15am

i hppe that the electoral-vote.com site is as accurate as they were in 2004 when their final prediction was kerry 281, bush 257. or from the day before that when they had it kerry 298, bush 231.

[mejusthavingfun]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 10:03am

It seems to me that CNN has a lot to lo$e if they don't make this landslide look like a horse-race. That never-ending primary really created buzz and sold ads like no other in history. This certainly pales and it makes for some really boring television.

There are two talking points last time I checked, 1. The white blue collar vote and 2. The Southern Florida Jewish vote. Just know that Obama will not win the blue collar white male vote, Clinton, Gore and Kerry didn't. It would be nice, but it just doesn't go that way. The Southern Florida Jewish vote is very interesting because though McCain can "scare" his votes up there, Obama may win WITHOUT Florida and Ohio.

McCain is going to look awful in debates and when gas hits $5.00 a gallon around September he's gonna be minced meat. This outside the fact that Obama comes to the table with an entire movement.

[Auggie27]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 11:15am

McCain's biggest problem isn't that he's Bush III, it isn't that he's retrograde, it isn't even his voting record (though he's a disaster on women's concerns, to be sure; any Clinton gal who lines up with him has anger management issues). He's a singularly unappealing presence in just about any arena, stadium, green cyclorama, podium, Dairy Queen opening. He is charmless and often graceless, and when he smiles, it comes off like Randall Flagg, the Satan figure in Stephen King's THE STAND. He seems sour and joyless. No one wants him to kiss their baby, not because he's "old" (he ain't that old), but because he's so unappealing. I don't doubt that the war experiences played a role, and I cannot fault him for his looks (the bloat from the melanoma surgery is unfortunate). Forget someone to have a beer with -- you wouldn't want him doing your income tax at H&R block. He's not a natural, and for a President, there must be some sort of pulse, some underlying warmth. I don't know a Republican who truly responds to him. All of that tired "he'll keep us safe" soccer mom stuff has no teeth in the voting booth, not with gas at 5 bucks, and nature destroying us more than any terrorist.

Updated On: 6/17/08 at 11:15 AM

[Unknown User]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 11:21am

I was listening this morning to some pundits say that McCain has put Florida back in play with his calls to drill for oil off the Florida coast- said to be the single most unpopular position he could take down there.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 11:33am

yeah, finding our own oil is a horrible idea. just like building new refineries is a horrible idea. as is oil shale, nuclear power, wind farms near anyone with any access to those in power, etc. we should be investing in the sun. maybe we can have a wish for a better source of energy day.

i can't wait until the morning after when everyone's wailing, "how can he have possibly won? no one i know voted for him!"

[mejusthavingfun]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 11:40am

"finding our own oil is a horrible idea."

It is when it would have ZERO impact on the price of gas and heating oil.

The US uses some 6 billion barrels of per year, I think the estimates of oil off of Florida are around 9 billion barrels. So it's a wash, AND oil speculators would never allow this to drive down revenue. Updated On: 6/17/08 at 11:40 AM

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 12:21pm

that's based on geology from the 70's. but you're right, any solution that does not completely solve the problem should be discarded completely.

85% of the us' offshore territories are closed to drilling. 85%.

oil shale is not even apossibility due to the sringent limits in place on the type of oil that can be used to make gasoline.

democrats should just admit that they actually are pretty happy about the cost of gas as it will punish those who refuse to limit their carbon footprint (i.e. people who ahve to drive to work, y'know the folks in the places without mass transit). they have no solutions. none. because they actually think it's fine. bammy said as much the other day when he admitted he just didn't want to see prices go up so quickly.

[Unknown User]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 12:28pm

I'm hoping we can design a car that runs on republicans.

[papalovesmambo]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 12:40pm

will that be like
the thing that only eats hippies?

[madbrian]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 12:40pm

By 'on', do you mean using them as fuel, or running over them?

[Namaste]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 12:54pm

Did anyone see this on www.electoral-vote.com:

"Speaking of dog-whistle politics, Obama's announcement yesterday that he had hired Patti Solis Doyle is a clear example of same. Hillary Clinton belatedly fired her former friend for poor campaign and financial management. Now Obama hires her--as chief of staff to the Vice Presidential candidate. Can you imagine Clinton being saddled up with a chief of staff she thinks is incompetent and whom she at least partially blames for losing the nomination? The message seems clear: Clinton is not going to be the Veep candidate. So why would Obama hire Solis Doyle other than her value as a signal to Clinton? She is a Latina; her parents were Mexican immigrants. Her real job will no doubt be outreach to the Latino community, a group that Obama has a good chance of winning if he tries hard. Step 1 is hiring a high-profile Latina who used to be very close to the Clintons--Solis Doyle!"

[mejusthavingfun]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 1:00pm

"Can you imagine Clinton being saddled up with a chief of staff she thinks is incompetent and whom she at least partially blames for losing the nomination? "

Can you imagine Clinton being saddled up with a competitor she thinks is incompetent and whom she at least partially blames for losing the nomination?

Hillary has been offered this slot. She will decide to take it or not. This primary was over in Feb. Those super delegates who held out till the end made it clear they wanted a say in the matter.

[mejusthavingfun]

Posted: 6/17/08 at 1:03pm

Papa

"democrats should just admit that they actually are pretty happy about the cost of gas as it will punish those who refuse to limit their carbon footprint"

So true.

It's not just that we are happy about. I'm happy the increasing price of oil will have trickle down effects on things like plastics. Plastics that are currently SO CHEAP we can just toss it. This is one of those unpopular things like "raising" taxes that really does improve the quality of life.