Entertainment Weekly predicts the Oscar nominations...

In the current issue... and they have a high success rate on predictions (but not perfect)...

Best Picture:

The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine

Best Actor:

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson

Best Actress:

Helen Mirren, The Queen
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children
Penelope Cruz, Volver

Best Supporting Actor:

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond
Jackie Earl Haley, Little Children
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Best Supporting Actress:

Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Adriana Barraza, Babel
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

Director:

Martin Scorsese, The Departed
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel

Original Screenplay:

Babel
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

Adapted Screenplay:

Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You For Smoking

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Updated On: 1/13/07 at 08:38 PM

The only movie I saw on that list was DREAMGIRLS, so I guess my opinions are invalid. As disappointing as DREAMGIRLS was, I'm hoping THE HISTORY BOYS at least gets an adapted screenplay nomination. The film was just as brilliant as the play.

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fyi: It is Thank You For Smoking not Thank You For Not Smoking.

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Updated On: 1/13/07 at 12:14 AM

Hudson is in the Supporting Actress category.

Along with Abigail Breslin. (She damn well better be nominated or Imma Cut a B****)

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If these nominations turn out to be the way they really go, it seems that this will be the 2nd time (that I can remember anyway) that only 1 real American actress will be nominated in the Best Actress category...I believe the year that Helen Hunt won was the other. I am only going by my memory though..which isn't always the best.

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Actually, boobs, the year (2003) that Charlize Theron (MONSTER) won, Diane Keaton (SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE) was the only sole American nominee. Theron is South African, Samantha Morton (IN AMERICA) is English, Naomi Watts (21 GRAMS) is English-Australian, and Keisha Castle-Hughes (WHALE RIDER) is from New Zealand.

So there.

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It used to be a lot more fun to try to predict the Oscar nominations before we got 85 critic groups and 200 Oscar prediction websites chiming in. Not that I don't love the game, but I do think there is so much group think now that essentially the Oscar race is set well before the nominees.

I mean how else can the BEST ACTRESS lineup stay EXACTLY the same through the entire season with absolutely no variation?

At any rate. I think the EW predicts are going to be 90 percent accurate in the "majors" with probably only a single variation or two in the directing/writing catagories.

robbiej---I could easily see those two swapping when the nominations are announced.

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With the Director's Guild nom..it now appears likely that Dreamgirls will in fact be nominated Best Picture. I think United 93 might take the slot for Little Miss Sunshine though, and by Oscar time, might even be the frontrunner for Best Picture. Here in the LA/OC area, they are really promoting this film.

Peter is right... there is a HUGE push out here for "Sunshine" right now.

Weinstein-esque!

It will be interesting to see how much impact it has in the nominations.

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Oops! Well, the huge push out here is for Sunshine now, regardless.

I have heard quite a few radio spots for United 93, but not anything more than the others in the horse race.

EDIT: And Dreamgirls is getting and extra big push this week as well, but that also has to do with it going into wide release now.

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Updated On: 1/13/07 at 01:51 PM

I was just talking with others at work about that yesterday!

No one seems to know. They figure he dug himself out of the "crappy actor" column, and that was "award" enough.

There was a time when he was touted as a "shoo-in" nominee for supporting actor. The wind has shifted, apparently.

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I liked Arkin, but I thought Carrell and Dano were far more deserving of nominations. I just don't know what the fascination is with his performance. It would be a crime for Michael Sheen to be denied a nomination. He was superb.

I guess I also don't understand Abagail Breslin getting a nomination. She was good... but the Oscar?

Anyone care to give me their take on why those two deserve nominations?

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