In 10 years... — Page 2

I think Hairspray and Wicked will have about the same run. There are shows that have had very long runs that were not well constructed (look on playbill.com's Long Running Musicals link).

insomniak, when rent opened the rentheads were like 10 times more than now.
the REAL fans, are the ones that still are there. Like you

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*shrug* I am very new to broadway in general, only a few months into the obsession. I don't know much about the original Rentheads, but not every fan of every show is on message boards. The internet is not a great way to judge. And really? No one knows what people will care about in ten years.

I'm sure a few of the girls in LITTLE WOMEN will start farting on stage and ham it up for the audience and tweens all over the country will have a new obsession.

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stick- Glad we came to terms. LOL. Agreeing to disagree works!!!

yes, it's me like 20 years ago. When I was cute.

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I'm bored out of my mind, so I'll just chime in.

I don't know what shows will run for how long, but keep these things in mind:

WICKED - It's hugely popular (no pun intended) right now, but its weekly running costs are astronomical. So for it to last, it has to be hugely popular for a long, long time.

AVENUE Q - Doesn't have the tourist-selling-power of Wicked, and requires a talented cast of puppeteering performers. However, its running costs are low and they've already recouped their investment, so they could run for a long time.

HAIRSPRAY - Of these three musicals, I predict that Hairspray will last the longest. It has already recouped its investment, its running costs are average for a show its size, and it attracts both tourists and regular theatre-goers.

So that's concerning how long the shows will run. About how long we'll be talking about them is another issue.

Avenue Q might have been the first to disappear from our public consciousness if it wasn't for the Tony win. Now, it's very happily and permanently found a place in the history books, so for it to completely disappear is impossible. Although, decades after it closes, people might not be talking about it much anymore (a revival seems unlikely), it will always remain a blip in people's brains.

Wicked will probably have a long shelf life in repertoire and regional theatres, but I think its "legacy" will always be marred by the fact that it's a flawed work and will get mixed opinions from people. Think Phantom: we may still talk about Phantom, but we don't necessarily have good things to say about it.

Again, of these three shows, I think Hairspray is the show that we'll be talking about most in 10, 20, 30 years. It has the benefit of the Tony win, as well as being a show that will no doubt be done by countless high schools. Hairspray is destined to be a classic of musical theatre.

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Updated On: 8/29/04 at 12:01 AM

I agree with all that. The only way Ave Q will maybe be revived is if students now are taught puppetry. I wasn't taught how to use a real puppet in high school. No one I know has been trained to use a puppet like anything in Ave Q.

As for Wicked...probably not revived. Like the original Wizard of Oz, you can't revive something that's already phenominal. And I know I've said some things about Wicked before, but I think that it's just one show that can only have one run. How can you beat perfection? You can't.

But as far as Hairspray goes...I haven't even heard to OCR, much less went out to NYC and saw the show. I have no freakin' clue.

But I think the real question is...what performers will be around in 10 years? Will Idina be another Joel? (Meaning that he's been in so many shows, with so many awards, that sorta thing.)