Oscar noms predictions

[tazber]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 4:37pm

So all the guilds have nominated, all the critics have chosen winners, and the Globes have been handed out.

Here is what I think we'll see next Tuesday:

I'm notoriously bad at predicting these things, although I think everyone agrees on who the front runners are. I'm basing my picks on the various guild nomnations and what my friends who actually vote have told me. Since they number just 2, obviously this should all be taken with a grain of salt.

Best Picture
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. True Grit
7. Toy Story 3
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. The Town
10. 127 Hours

Spoliers:
Winter’s Bone - There was lot of love for this movie, but except for Jennifer Lawrence it seems to have lost momentum.
Rabbit Hole - The Academy always loves a heart breaking drama. this could slip in the way The Reader surprised everyone two years ago.
Another Year - Mike Leigh's films have almost alway been nominated in the past decade or so. This may have come too late though to gain traction.

Best Actor
1. Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine

Spoilers:
Robert Duvall, Get Low - got raves this summer, but flashier turns by Eisnenberg and Franco are still fresh.
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter - This film has momentum with a capital M. I think the other 3 cast members will get nominations and Wahlberg could easily slip in.

Best Actress
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Spoilers
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole - It all depends on whether this movie had enough exposure. If it snags a Picture nomination then Nicole will probably also be nominated.
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right - She was as good as Annette in a somewhat less showy role. I think it all comes down to where (or if) Hailee Steinfeld gets recognized.

Supporting Actor
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Jeremy Renner, The Town
5. John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone

Spoilers
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right - I really don't think he deserves a nomination, but it's the weakest category this year and he could take John Hawkes' place.
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network - I would love for him to get a nomination. He was slimy, juvenile, and arrogant. I totally forgot who Justin Timberlake the singer was. A revelation.

Supporting Actress
1. Amy Adams, The Fighter
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
4. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Spoilers:
Leslie Manville, Another Year - Leigh, like Woody Allen, gets his actresses nominated. As with the Picture category the question is did this have enough exposure?
Diane Wiest, Rabbit Hole - Early kudos for her performance but seems to have lost steam. But if the movie connected with Academy members she's in.
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit - Once again she's the wild card that could alter the race. It depends on whether she gets more votes here or in the leading actress category. Or a split could knock her out of both races.

Best Director
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
5. David O. Russell, The Fighter

Spoiler:
Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit - the hardest to call. True Grit is neck and neck with The Fighter in the momentum department. And there seems to be some backlash towards Aronofsky for what one friend called his "uneven tone".

What are your picks?

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 4:43pm

I would like to see BLUE VALENTINE snag a Best Picture nomination and (I know it won't happen) but i'd like to see Julia nominated for EAT PRAY LOVE just because I love her.

[Calvin]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 4:45pm

I really want a Manville nomination, but I don't think anyone is going to beat Leo in the final vote anyway.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 4:49pm

Oh, I'd also LOVE to see Alanis Morissette get a nomination for her song "I REMAIN" from THE PRINCE OF PERSIA.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 4:53pm

Justin Timberlake, The Social Network - I would love for him to get a nomination. He was slimy, juvenile, and arrogant. I totally forgot who Justin Timberlake the singer was. A revelation.

I totally agree with this. It actually took several minutes for me to realize it was Justin Timberlake. I didn't associate his celebrity with the role whatsoever.

I have to see True Grit and The Fighter. I haven't enjoyed Christian Bale in anything since Little Women, so I'm curious what all the fuss is about (both his performance and the film itself).

I'd realy love to see Winter's Bone slip in the BP noms over Toy Story 3, which I thought was cute, but unremarkable.

And there seems to be some backlash towards Aronofsky for what one friend called his "uneven tone".

Sounds like a fishing expedition for a reason not to nominate Aronofsky since his film had more commercial appeal than expected. Someone's catch phrase sparked a wildfire among academics. I blame Roscoe.

[ray-andallthatjazz86]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 5:09pm

Aronofsky is a lock for a nomination, BLACK SWAN got 12 nominations (behind THE KING'S SPEECH for the most) at the BAFTAs and it'll probably get around 7-10 at the Oscars, I can't see Aronofsky being left out (I also highly disagree that his tone is uneven, the movie has an incredible amount of range but wouldn't say that makes it uneven, in fact BLACK SWAN gets my vote for director this year) If anyone from the DGA list gets left out (which is doubtful), it'll be David O'Russell though all five slots seem to be locks.

PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Alternate: 127 Hours

DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky-BLACK SWAN
David Fincher-THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Tom Hooper-THE KING'S SPEECH
Christopher Nolan-INCEPTION
David O'Russell-THE FIGHTER
Alternate: Coen brothers

LEAD ACTOR
Jeff Bridges-TRUE GRIT
Robert Duvall-GET LOW
Jesse Eisenberg-THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Colin Firth-THE KING'S SPEECH
James Franco-127 HOURS
Alternate: Ryan Gosling-BLUE VALENTINE

LEAD ACTRESS
Annette Bening-THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Nicole Kidman-RABBIT HOLE
Jennifer Lawrence-WINTER'S BONE
Natalie Portman-BLACK SWAN
Hillary Swank-CONVICTION
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld-TRUE GRIT or Michelle Williams-BLUE VALENTINE

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale-THE FIGHTER
Andrew Garfield-THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Jeremy Renner-THE TOWN
Mark Ruffalo-THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Geoffrey Rush-THE KING'S SPEECH
Alternate: John Hawkes-WINTER'S BONE

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams-THE FIGHTER
Helena Bonham Carter-THE KING'S SPEECH
Melissa Leo-THE FIGHTER
Mila Kunis-BLACK SWAN
Hailee Steinfeld-TRUE GRIT
Alternate: Jackie Weaver-ANIMAL KINGDOM

[strummergirl]

Posted: 1/18/11 at 5:25pm

I am in the minority of not being blown away by Timberlake in TSN. Hell, I was more distracted by Andrew Garfield's accent than his performance. I personally would love Armie Hammer getting nominated. Sure, his part is assisted by the great editing to give you the illusion he is playing two parts, but, I do think Hammer did fool people over the fact he is just one person playing two characters.

I really hope Steinfeld gets nominated as a Best Actress. Best Supporting Actress is too crowded and hotly contested, and not to mention ridiculous over this whole notion that she is not the lead actress. Her age should not push her into a supporting category.

Pulling for Dale Dickey of Winter's Bone to make it as a Best Supporting Actress. She made John Hawkes' Teardrop look angelic in her moments on screen.

Pete Postlewaite got a BAFTA nod for his work in The Town. Is it too late in the game for him to get a posthumous Oscar nomination? As for The Town, I really only see Renner getting the major nominations for that movie with Winter's Bone taking the Best Picture spot.

I pretty much agree on the list of the Best Picture nominations, otherwise.

This will never happen (as I am pretty sure this song did not even make the short-list, shamefully), but, I kinda wish 'Black Sheep' from Scott Pilgrim vs. The World (sung by Brie Larson's character Envy Adams) got into the Best Original Song category. Such a good song. The lyrics make absolutely no sense, but, this seriously could be a hit song in real life. Plus I want that movie nominated for something. It sorta has become my favorite movie of 2010.

I actually think Nolan is in more danger to lost the Best Directors spot. I think any criticisms of Aronofsky for Black Swan is heavily outweighed by many major critics' criticisms of Inception.

[Jon]

Posted: 1/19/11 at 5:17pm

Wow - I have the same first nine pics as the two "Best Picture" lists posted.

The tenth slot could be Winter's Bone, 127 Hours, or maybe a foreign film?

Richard Jenkins - the only great thing in Eat, Pray, Love - seems to have been forgotten. I'd also like to see Mark Ruffalo. Either way, it doesn't matter. The Supporting Actor category is a two-man race between Bale and Rush.

[Kristie-K2]

Posted: 1/19/11 at 5:41pm

Loved Dale Dickey in Winter's Bone...Saw Jackie Weaver's performance last night...She was good, but Oscar worthy, I don't know...she was one evil Grandmother