Well; she basically came out of nowhere with her first win. And she really proves herself with this one. It also wasn't last year. but a few years ago. She also happens to be really charming and really nice. She is doing all the Q& A's at the screenings and people in the industry like her alot. SHe is extremely well liked.
Dame, Swank's previous win will greatly hinder her, considering the fact that the academy is not keen on giving out multiple wins, she also beat out Annette Bening that year (Annette totally deserved it though) and with Bening a contender this year it puts her above Swank and also no one this year IMO came close to giving such a powerful performance as Kate Winslet did in 'Sunshine' (though, she was good in Neverland). Kate also has the edge because it is not her usual character type and she nailed her right on the spot!
Kate Winslet-Eternal Sunshine***Winner*** Annette Bening-Being Julia Swank-Million Dollar Baby Emmy-Phantom of the Opera Julia Roberts- Closer
Plum, ITA with you regarding Carrey and Winslet in Eternal Sunshine. I HATE Carrey in everything, but God...him and Winslet were just perfect together. Winslet, Carrey, Kauffman, and Gondry really captured the best and worst parts of being in love.
"I've got to get me out of here
This place is full of dirty old men
And the navigators and their mappy maps
And moldy heads and pissing on sugar cubes
While you stare at your books."
Expressboy; Tom Hanks, Dustin Hoffman, Meryl Streep. A couple of people with more than one oscar and not "hindered " by having won before. I also strongly disagree with you on Annete Bening diserving it that year. Also; I must ask; have you seen "Milion Dollar baby?"
Expressboy; I am going to take it from your post that you have not seen "Million Dollar baby." If you had; you would know that her performance in it is just in a different stratosphere than Annette Benings. Why don't you wait till you see it before making such bold assesments? Quite honestly; I don't think bening will even be nominated.
Benning. It's like that part was written for an award to be awarded to the actress. For roles like Kate's in FINDING NEVERLAND, the role isn't very memorable or wonderfully written. EVen if she is perfect in it, she won't win. I don't think she will be nominated for it, even. I seriously don't think PHANTOM will do anything major at the awards.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."-Charlie Manson
Why she's hot: She became the early leader after this film was released in October for her multilayered performance about a stage legend struggling with age.
Why she's not: Few have seen the movie, which has taken in only $3 million.
Laura Dern We Don't Live Here Anymore
Why she's hot: She won raves as a wife coping with infidelity in a struggling marriage.
Why she's not: Voters may have more than their share of cheaters between this and Closer, which has more momentum.
Scarlett Johansson A Love Song for Bobby Long
Why she's hot: Her turn as a daughter grieving the death of her mother may be enough to persuade the academy to make up for snubbing her for Lost in Translation.
Why she's not: So few people have seen this film that it has yet to generate much talk.
Nicole Kidman Birth
Why she's hot: Kidman gives one of her more daring performances as a widow who believes a 10-year-old boy is the reincarnation of her dead husband.
Why she's not: The touchy subject matter: Her tub scene with the boy may be too much for voters to stomach.
Téa Leoni Spanglish
Why she's hot: Her confrontations with her boozing mother (Cloris Leachman) are the laugh-out-loud moments of the film.
Why she's not: Oscar isn't known for his sense of humor.
Catalina Sandino Moreno Maria Full of Grace
Why she's hot: This small summer film keeps chugging along at screenings, thanks to Moreno's performance as a drug mule.
Why she's not: It's an HBO film, which doesn't exactly command the respect of haughty Oscar voters — yet.
Julia Roberts Closer
Why she's hot: Her performance as a photographer struggling with fidelity seems tailor-made for award speeches.
Why she's not: The film is so bitter it's hard to like the character.
Imelda Staunton Vera Drake
Why she's hot: Her turn as a 1950s housekeeper who doubles as an abortionist is earning international awards.
Why she's not: The abortion debate has kept audiences away. It could do the same to the academy.
Hilary Swank Million Dollar Baby
Why she's hot: She has the most momentum so far for her portrayal of a female boxer looking to make it in a male-dominated sport.
Why she's not: She already won for 1999's Boys Don't Cry.
Audrey Tautou A Very Long Engagement
Why she's hot: Her turn as a woman separated from her lover by war is winning acclaim.
Why she's not: Subtitles. Oscar isn't crazy about giving out trophies to actresses in foreign films.
Paz Vega Spanglish
Why she's hot: Her role as a Mexican maid caught in a WASPy, bickering family hits all the right political notes.
Why she's not: The talk on the film is mixed and could hurt her.
Kate Winslet Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind/Finding Neverland
Why she's hot: Two big roles, as a woman who erases her memories of a lover in Eternal and a dying mom in Finding.
Why she's not: The two performances could split voters.
Lol, sorry if I have offended anyone hehe. But I would just like to apologize for making such bold decisions, because I have yet to see 'Million Dollar Baby'. BUT, I am still sticking to Winslet because I just love her, plus she doesn't need to act like a man to convince audiences she is a great actress...sorry I still can't get over Bening not winning for 'American Beauty', "I will wash this house today, I will wash this house today!"
I hope both of the women of "Closer"(Julia Roberts and Natalie Portman) are nominated. What an amazing job they did with some shockingly intense material.
I agree. Benning not winning for AMERICAN BEAUTY is almost as bad as Ellen Burstyn not winning for REQUIEM FOR A DREAM and Antonio Banderas not winning the Tony for NINE.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."-Charlie Manson
But if the academy does its usual retroactive/body of work thing--awarding someone more for past work than current, a la Dame Judi, Denzel, Renee, et al--then I think it may go to Bening. The "should" and "will" of the oscars are often worlds apart.
