1. The Golden Globe win was a given -- look at its competition: THE PRODUCERS, MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS, PRIDE & PREJUDICE, and THE SQUID AND THE WHALE. Unfortunately, THE SQUID AND THE WHALE never quite had any momentum (I would have given it the award if it was up to me). Of the four, PRIDE & PREJUDICE was its only "real" competition, given the enthusiastic reception from critics. But WALK THE LINE was a bigger box-office success. The Golden Globe was a shoo-in.
2. I predicted that MUNICH would probably sneak in past WALK THE LINE because of the way ballots are counted, and I think that's what happened. When Academy members fill in their nomination ballots, they list -- in order -- their top five films. Relative placement on the ballot is important. The accounting team counts the number of #1s until a film gets enough votes (20% of total), and then all those ballots with that film at #1 are discarded. The process is repeated until all #1 are counted, then they move onto #2. It's a complicated process, but all you need to know is, WALK THE LINE may be on everyone's ballot, but if it isn't near the top for a good number of them, it doesn't stand much of a chance.
MUNICH received a mixed reception, but those who enjoyed it, LOVED it and probably put the film in their #1 or #2 slot. I don't think there were enough Academy members who were that passionate about WALK THE LINE. Many liked it well enough, but there just wasn't enough enthusiasm propelling it to the #1 or #2 slots on people's ballots.
BlueWizard's blog: The Rambling Corner
HEDWIG: "The road is my home. In reflecting upon the people whom I have come upon in my travels, I cannot help but think of the people who have come upon me."