In my opinion, Giamatti shouldn't even be nominated. There are several other performances that outshined his this year.
While I didn't care for CRASH, the performances in that movie are undeniably strong. Matt Dillon (whom I always dismissed as an "actor," not an ACTOR) completely blew me away in this movie - as did Thandie Newton, Sandra Bullock, and several others. Even Don Cheadle's performance is clear and certain perfection. Both Cheadle and Dillon reach heights in their performances that sheer writing doesn't allow for in CINDERELLA MAN. I sincerely and truly hope that Dillon will win the GG and the Oscar. But, history tends to repeat iteslf, and this category will be another repeat of last year.
Clive Owen was the best in the category - he won the GG, but lost the Oscar to Morgan Freeman who, really, won the award because he's Morgan Freeman rather than for his particular performance. This year, I suspect that Dillon will win the Golden Globe and that Giamatti will win the Oscar. I don't think the Academy is ready to think of Matt Dillon as an Oscar winner whose performance record is, while respectible, not steady.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."
-Charlie Manson