Most of the musicals mentioned here, post A Chorus Line, were either workshopped, done at a regional or done off-Broadway before coming into town. While money was being spent, it was not the big money involved in a full production. At any point the plug could have been pulled with limited financial consequences.
Urinetown is an example of a show that ought not to have worked although every pre-Broadway incarnation did work and the green light kept happening to everyone's favor. However it wasn't that big of a surprise by the time it opened at the Henry Miller's that it was a good show. The producers were savvy enough to have enough of a money cushion until it found its audience.
Before workshops often times the creators of a show did not know what they had until the show was on its feet in front of a paying audience after the budgeted money had been expended. We have all seen shows that probably read well and looked good in a studio, but fell flat in production.
No, No Nanette, The Wiz, 1776, Bye, Bye, Birdie, Half a Sixpence, Purlie, among others, are shows that got decent runs although they didn't look like hits when they went into rehearsal. Actually the last two didn't pay off until they went on tour after the Broadway runs.
If a show makes it through the workshop/regional vetting process and comes into NY in a multi-million dollar production and lays an egg, one has to ask if anyone had their eyes and ears open and if anyone knew what was and was not working.
"If my life weren't funny, it would just be true. And that would be unacceptable."
--Carrie Fisher