Best Actress, Musical -- the most competitive in Tony history? - Page 3

[parkerjonesj]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 10:24am

I wouldn't be upset, if Fantasia made it into Featured Actress for After Midnight. It's also not a coincidence that she's returning during the voting period and will be there until Tony night.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 10:38am

"I think this will happen

Best actress musical will be...
Sutton Foster
Idina Menzel
MIchelle Williams
Jessie Mueller
Cassie Levy ( even though she has a small part)

featured actress musical will be...
Courtney Reed
Lachanze
Linda Emond
Lena Hall
Nikki M. James"

I think Caissie Levy is most likely going to be put into the Featured Actress race because there really is no leading lady in Les Miz.

Here are my predictions:

Lead Actress:
Sutton Foster
Idina Menzel
Jessie Mueller
Kelli O'Hara
Michelle Williams

Featured Actress:
Nikki M. James
LaChanze
Anika Larsen
Margo Seibert
Helene Yorke

*unsure of where Marin Mazzie will be placed at this point.

[BroadwayBaby2012]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 10:40am

Unfortunately for her advocates, Kelli can't possibly win. One of the dirty secrets of Tony voting is that most voters don't end up seeing all of the shows which is why there have been so many examples of the predicted winner not ending up with the Tony - it is simply a matter of of numbers and the voters are not responsible or accountable (Jim Dale losing to Christian Hoffman is one of the most cited examples).

It is hard to imagine that Bridges will be running another month or two, which means that all of the voters who come to town to do the Spring sweep of shows after the nominations are announced won't see her performance. And people tend to vote less for anyone associated with a closed show or dying show when there are so many viable nominees from healthy productions.

If the show closes soon I would even be worried about her nomination if someone has to miss the cut. It eases a nominator's mind to leave out someone from a closed show.

They are bleeding money every week. The likelihood of closing soon is so high that it will likely cost Kelli a win again.

[fingerlakessinger]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 4:27pm

I adore Kelli, and I think her work in BRIDGES is grade A quality. However, I am personally hoping for Menzel to win. I know she has already had her "time" as some others have put it, and that Kelli is overdue (which she is,) but many didn't question the turnout when Audra won her second or third Tony lol.
Also (and I want to tread lightly because I do NOT want to discredit Kelli's work at all, she is working her @$$ off every night for a show that is sadly sinking,) but Menzel is playing a role that is unlike any role to ever come to Broadway. She is essentially playing the same character, but playing her two different ways at the same time. She never leaves the stage (and she she does, its very brief) and the vocal demands are high. The show might be written around her voice, but that doesn't make it any easier to sing eight times a week.
I definitely see it being a nail bitter if BRIDGES stays open till the Tony Awards though. It is kind of rare to have a season where two Broadway veterans who are both loved by audiences and critics alike and are making career defining roles be put into the same category.

[jv92]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 4:47pm

I've seen the two BIG female performances-- O'Hara and Menzel. Liked them both a lot. Michelle Williams should win. And some of you know how I am, I'm a big "Stay in Hollywood, movie people" snob. She had by far the hardest ACTING role (maybe she didn't power belt for 3 hours or hit any high G's), and pulled it off almost miraculously.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 6:25pm

I hope the producers of BRIDGES will do their damndest to keep the show open till the TONYs. The CD comes out soon and the Stars are not getting high salaries and the cast is rather small. The creators will probably take cuts in salaries. I still think Kelli is the front runner and JRB's score is also TONY worthy.

[ABB2357]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 6:36pm

What about the big names canceling each other out and Jessie Mueller pulling a dark horse victory?

[jdrye222]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 6:42pm

I am expecting Mueller will become the favorite as the next month or so progresses and the nominations come out.
Menzel is energetic and as good as anyone could be with such a dreadfully written piece.
O'Hara - to me - is always quite lovely and sings beautifully but is never quite emotional enough for me... it's always a bit safe.

[homeimp]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 7:22pm

What about 2003-2004 - Idina Menzel and Kristin Chenoweth(both for Wicked), Tonya Pinkins (Caroline or Change) and Donna Murphy (Wonderful Town), That was a pretty potent foursome. And let's not talk about the one who missed so many shows. She was there when I saw the show, and that's what counts!

[east side story]

Posted: 3/30/14 at 7:42pm

Regardless of who actually wins, this year's category will easily be the best since 2004. I would be fine with any of the aforementioned leading ladies taking it home.

[Sauja]

Posted: 3/31/14 at 12:24pm

Having now seen just about all the shows with women in the running, it does seem like it will come down to Mueller, O'Hara, Menzel, Williams, and Foster. Unless Lady Day gets pushed into the Musical category, in which case...yikes.

Here is the order in which I think their likelihood of winning is highest (this isn't preference--just my hunch).

1. O'Hara (seen as overdue? potential con: show not a hit)
2. Mueller (show a hit, but doesn't seem well loved by reviewers; "star-making role?")
3. Williams (another actress won for this role in this exact same production before)
4. Menzel (great reviews for her, bleak for the show)
5. Foster (already won twice recently--crowded enough year folks want to spread the love?)

I don't know...that's where my head is right now--that it's between O'Hara and Mueller. My heart goes with Foster or Williams. But you certainly can't count out Idina who is doing some great work (even though I loathed the show).