Broadway Grosses Question?

[Lola Getz2]

Posted: 12/21/22 at 9:58pm

Okay. I'm a ten year old (not really, but) could someone explain to me how to tell if a show is doing well or not by looking at the gross thread? What are the things you look for to make this determination? I am not a mathematician and don't do numbers in my head, but would love to be able to look at the charts and see what you all see. There are so many up and down numbers and such. 

I am sure this has been addressed on this board previously, but would really appreciate a tutorial on how to tell if a show is in trouble or doing really well at a glance.

You are all so knowledgeable, and I appreciate any help. > 

[ManOfLaMuncha]

Posted: 12/21/22 at 11:30pm

Lola Getz2 said: "Okay. I'm a ten year old (not really, but) could someone explain to me how to tell if a show is doing well or not by looking at the gross thread? What are the things you look for to make this determination? I am not a mathematician and don't do numbers in my head, but would love to be able to look at the charts and see what you all see. There are so many up and down numbers and such.

I am sure this has been addressed on this board previously, but would really appreciate a tutorial on how to tell if a show is in trouble or doing really well at a glance.

You are all so knowledgeable, and I appreciate any help. >"

you can look on the ibdb page for the show and click statistics

[troynow]

Posted: 12/22/22 at 7:39am

Great question.

 

Without knowing the shows weeklly break even and or "the nut" it is hard to tell. 
But you can make a good guess at a cost.

Not looking to start a war (others feel free to chime in of course)

MUSICAL

10 and under for the cast weekly might be around 5- 600K a week(Kimberly Akimbo)

20+ 700K 

30+ 800 -900K (Moulin Rouge, Some Like It Hot)

 

PLAYS

2 ppl 200-450K (Topdog)

4 -6 ppl 3-500K (Ain't No Mo, example) 

7-16 ppl 500K -800K ( Death of a Salesman and Piano Lesson, Leoplold examples)

 

Again guessing here...
With the info above you have imagine a NEW SHOW, only has 500-1M in reserve with they first open. And and if you do not make your weekly number then you have to subelement from the reserve, So you make a guess as to how much money is there/left in the reserve, 

 

In the case of Ain't No Mo, assuming they have never made their weekly number it was clear that by the 3rd week they would need to give notice. As they did.


Clear as mud?

 

[JoeW4]

Posted: 12/22/22 at 9:00am

What troynow said is about right, but I’m just going to explain more of the basics, in case that’s helpful. 

The EXTREMELY OVERSIMPLIFIED version is:

If an average-sized musical is making around $1M per week, there’s a good chance it’s doing well. 

If a smaller play is making around $700k/week, there’s a good chance it’s doing well. 

If any show is making $1.5-$2M+ a week, they’re pretty much crushing it.

Everything in between really depends, and takes a little more parsing out. 

So, the less simplified version is: 

Whether or not a show is doing well depends on the running cost: how much it costs to run each week (I.e. employee salaries, theatre rental, replenishing supplies, etc. - and depending on how you count it, you could also lump the advertising budget in there, and the royalty percentages)

If the weekly gross is above the running cost, then the show is probably comfortable. If the weekly gross is below the running cost every week, or most weeks, that’s bad news, and grounds to close the show. 

Unfortunately, we rarely ever know what that number is, so it requires speculation/estimation (see troynow’s post above). 

The other number to consider is the capitalization - the upfront cost of putting the show on its feet (building the sets, developing the show, etc). It can range from $5M for small plays, to $15-20M for large musicals - sometimes more. 

Each week, after they’ve paid all their weekly expenses, salaries, royalties, etc. - any leftover money from the gross goes toward paying back the investors for those upfront costs. Once they’ve fully paid that money back (recouped) they’re considered a financial success. And any extra money from the weekly gross now goes back to the investors as profit. And if it’s an open run, they’ll just keep running as long as the don’t fall below the running cost too frequently. 

For a limited run, it’s a tighter turnaround. So even if a limited run is making more than their running cost, they still might end up a financial failure, if their margins aren’t good enough to recoup in that short amount of time. 

Clear as mud? 

[Lola Getz2]

Posted: 12/22/22 at 10:04am

Thank you, that does help. 

I appreciate the replies!