Broadway Grosses: Week Ending 5/10/15 — Page 3

Realities:

1. Shoulda is not "doing well." (It is also not doing "really bad.")

2. Shoulda is not paying anyone "real money." The nut is certainly below the bigger shows, but not because of paying actors, stage hands or electricity. None of those amount to a hill of beans. It is not losing $200k. Probably well south of half that.

3. Shoulda will not "make its money" from regional productions. Yes, it will pick up a few shekels, but the present value of its wildly optimistic subsidiary rights revenue over a ten year period will not equal the single week losses it has had in its worst weeks.

4. If the show runs though the summer, it will be because it boasts well heeled producers, not because it is making money. The summer demographic is not its friend. It is extremely unlikely that it will be a tenant in the fall.

"Like it or not, 'Neverland' is a crowd-pleaser."

Equating ticket sales to audience satisfaction is misguided. It would be more accurate to say, "Like it or not, Neverland is a ticket-seller (for now)." All the word of mouth I've heard from audience members is rather blah to negative.

Re: Shoulda Making a profit from regional productions: I doubt that the bigger, more reputable regionals are going to waste time on this bit of low-brow nonsense. Income from community theatre productions will be negligible. I don't see many high schools embracing oit due to the gay/lesbian thing. If Daly, or some other equally known name, consents to tour with the turkey, it might do well for a year on the road. But I think it more likely that this will go out on an incredibly low-tier/no-name contract, or even start out non-Equity.

Updated On: 5/13/15 at 09:09 AM

@jdrye- I was not meaning to suggest Shoulda won't limp through until fall. Right now it is marginal and will likely have to be propped up to get there, but I agree it is not an unreasonable conjecture to say it will not close before Labor day. Re licensing, I didn't suggest that the show won't have a fertile afterlife; my point is simply that the subsidiary rights revenue will not ever come close to making the undertaking profitable for Broadway investors.

One does not have to take a poll for heaven's sake. The audiences are responding enthusiastically as a group and the word of mouth is selling tickets briskly. The second statement is flawed in that it tries to extrapolate from the (unknown) specific to the general, but is very explicitly not basing itself on a poll.

RE: Neverland: They went into their opening with a very respectable $10+ million advance. It's likely that these strong weeks have more to do with a successful marketing strategy to front load the run and helped resonate with tourists (combined with the movie's following). If you're coming in from the middle of the country and you're picking one new show (pre tony noms), why wouldn't you pick Finding Neverland? We will see how things continue into the summer and how long they can withstand an aggressive advertising presence. If it continues above $850-900k through August, I'd have an easier time believing its actually a "crowd pleaser." To clarify, I'm not saying it isn't going to be successful, just pointing out that the current grosses probably don't offer much insight.

RE: SHOULDA BEEN YOU: Just as most shows do, Shoulda' will be altered to better fit into a licensing setting. I suspect it'll have a life in regional theatres, but something modest. I saw it recently, and I thought the house responded quite well. It certainly was a good buzz leaving. I suspect it'll close at the end of June, unless things pick up. It'll be looking for a suburban audience rather than a tourist audience - sadly everyone in the 'burbs will be at the beach by fourth of July. To be fair, it is far from the worst thing currently playing on Broadway.

I would never guessed that An American in Paris would be the hit of this season, gawd!