BustopherPhantom: Tony Predictions

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 12:58pm

Best Play: God of Carnage
Not a great season for new plays: there are three possible winners, and it's hard to have strong feelings about any of them. God of Carnage might lose to Dividing the Estate or reasons to be pretty - Dividing being more likely if the voters want to give the deceased Mr. Foote his first Tony. But the voters generally like to vote for what they most enjoyed, and if they can get over Carnage's sitcom-like aspects, than it'll win.

Best Musical: Billy Elliot the Musical
Because NEXT TO NORMAL is too audience-divisive to gather the needed momentum to topple the All-Season Frontrunner. It's boring, but Billy Elliot is a very good show, after all (unlike The Producers, it would perhaps deserve a whole lot of wins).

Best Revival of a Play: The Norman Conquests
Because it's really really funny; because it was near-unanimously-swooned over by the critics (and there are critics who think like audience members); because it's epic (see The Coast of Utopia); because Matthew Warchus, who is on a real high this year, directed. Joe Turner might pull an upset, but it isn't likely.

Best Revival of a Musical: Hair
Because there's no competition: West Side Story disappointed a whole lot of people, and Guys and Dolls/Pal Joey never had a prayer. It's a shame, because Hair is actually a great production, and would have a fighting chance in a good year.

Best Director of a Play: Matthew Warchus, The Norman Conquests
Because he's on a high that would be a career-maker for any other director, but is pretty much the norm for him. He's also never won. He might also win for God of Carnage; if a vote split is at all possible, Bartlett Sher would probably be the next choice.

Best Director of a Musical: Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot the Musical
As part of the Billy Elliot sweep - though I'm hoping Diane Paulus upsets (it would be nice if an American won something this year).

Best Book of a Musical: Lee Hall, Billy Elliot the Musical
As part of the Billy Elliot sweep; also, there's not much competition (next to normal's book wasn't the most praised part of the show).

Best Original Score: Elton John and Lee Hall, Billy Elliot the Musical
As part of the Billy Elliot sweep; Elton John's score works much better on a stage (especially with that production), and the voters will probably come with that impression. But don't count next to normal out: if it's going to win anything, it'll be here.

(scroll down for more)

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 12:58pm

Best Leading Actor in a Play: Geoffrey Rush, Exit the King
Because his performance was not only the best of the year, but also incredibly funny and entertaining. Raul Esparza probably doesn't have a chance, unless the voters want to reward him for his past work (and for, in Speed-the-Plow, adapting to three different lead actors successfully).

Best Leading Actress in a Play: Marcia Gay Harden, God of Carnage
Because, in a first-rate ensemble, she stole the show. Also a nice award for the entire Carnage ensemble. The Mary Stuart actresses probably won't be able to upset.

Best Featured Actor in a Play: Roger Robinson, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Because Stephen Mangan and Paul Ritter will probably split the vote (though if I had to pick one of the two to upset, I'd pick Mangan).

Best Featured Actress in a Play: Angela Lansbury, Blithe Spirit
This isn't a lock, I think. I have a feeling that, as beloved as Lansbury is, the voters would want to give her a fifth Tony for a performance that was, to them, truly special (and I just can't shake the "Mrs. Lovett and Others" vibe from her performance in Blithe Spirit, which isn't to say that it's not a good one). But the Norman Conquests actresses will probably split the vote (although either could upset), Marin Ireland isn't likeable enough (although she's excellent), and Hallie Foote's play (which wasn't completely embraced by the audience) closed a long time ago. So Lansbury it is (and being on stage successfully at her age? That's a small miracle in itself).

Best Leading Actor in a Musical: The Billy Boys, Billy Elliot the Musical
Because of the novelty, and as part of the Billy Elliot sweep; no one else has the momentum.

Best Leading Actress in a Musical: Alice Ripley, next to normal
Because her performance was so POWERFUL, and as a prize for next to normal. She's also well-liked in the industry.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical: Will Swenson, Hair
Because he's hilarious, and stands out in the ensemble. Also an award for Hair. Gregory Jbara might upset if Billy Elliot goes full-tilt in its sweep.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical: Haydn Gwynne, Billy Elliot the Musical
Because it's a wonderful, salty performance, and as part of the oh you know. Karen Olivio might upset, as might Martha Plimpton (for confirming her multi-talent-ness, and as a reward for past work).

(scroll down for more)

Updated On: 5/16/09 at 12:58 PM

[BustopherPhantom]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 12:59pm

Best Special Theatrical Event: Liza's at the Palace...!
Because it's LIZA! and because none of the other nominees have the prestige or attractiveness to win.

Best Choreography: Peter Darling, Billy Elliot the Musical
Best Orchestrations: Martin Koch, Billy Elliot the Musical

Best Scenic Design of a Play: Rob Howell, The Norman Conquests
Best Costume Design of a Play: Dale Ferguson, Exit the King
Best Lighting Design of a Play: Brian MacDevitt, Joe Turner's Come and Gone
Best Sound Design of a Play: Scott Lehrer and Leon Rothenberg, Joe Turner's Come and Gone

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: Ian MacNeil, Billy Elliot the Musical
Best Costume Design of a Musical: Michael McDonald, Hair
Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Rick Fisher, Billy Elliot the Musical
Best Sound Design of a Musical: Paul Arditti, Billy Elliot the Musical

Updated On: 5/16/09 at 12:59 PM

[ljay889]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 2:09pm

BILLY is not going to sweep like that.

[Pianolin717]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 2:12pm

It definitely won't. I predict Next to Normal will win Orchestrations, at least, it SHOULD win for Orchestrations.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 3:31pm

There is not going to be a Billy sweep of that magnitude.

Sorry.

[WiCkEDrOcKS]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 4:52pm

I actually agree with a majority of these predictions...I think everyone is underestimating the pull of BILLY.

I don't think it will win as many as Bustopher, but I think it'll take home a whole lot of trophies. Updated On: 5/16/09 at 04:52 PM

[Drunk Chita Rivera]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 5:10pm

Billy will definitely sweep. The voters love it, they love it so much they nominated David Bolonga (sp?) and Carole Shelley.

[Eleah]

Posted: 5/16/09 at 5:39pm

I think that book is going to Title of Show
I do think Billy will sweep just not the magnitude that you believe it will

[JenNYferTheatrical]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 11:58am

Agreed, Billy will do well, but it won't be as epic as some want it to be. Btw, I'm doing this Tony Prediction Contest thing that I found, where basically you just put in your predictions and if you're right, you can get up to like 500 bucks. If anyone wants to check it out, the link is here: http://tinyurl.com/ons8c9. Man, I'm so psyched for June 7th, it's ridiculous.

[BobbyBubby]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 12:03pm

Just because we don't want a Billy Elliot sweep doesn't mean it isn't going to happen.

Tony voters don't think like most of the people on this board.

[adamgreer]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 12:21pm

Does winning 6-7 awards constitute a sweep? Because that's about what I think Billy is going to do.

Musical
Director
Choreography
Actor
Featured Actor or Actress
Book
Set

I think those will probably all go to Billy Elliot. Featured Actor could very well go to Will Swenson, and Featured Actress could very well go to Karen Olivo. Of the predicted wins, those are the two I think it's the most vulnerable in.

[BobbyBubby]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 12:26pm

I'm just saying to be prepared for a board meltdown when Billy likely wins best score over Next to Normal.

[WishingOnlyWounds2]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 5:15pm

I'm a HUGE Billy fan- I've seen it 3 times but it should not win best score.

[StephenSondheimWHOO]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 5:37pm

While I loved Billy, I think it was way overnominated, and will probably win a lot more than it deserves.
I think that Diane Paulus should get best director without a doubt, and next to normal should get best score, but I'm not feeling that confidant that they will.

[tonight]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 7:21pm

i doubt haydn will win. it's def. going to karen.

i don't think billy is gonna sweep THAT much tonys.

[boyfromoz2]

Posted: 5/19/09 at 7:28pm

Sadly, I don't think this is Karen Olivo's year. Yes she is the highlight in a very lackluster revival, but Hayden Gwynne will definitely get carried along with the Billy Elliot sweep.