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#26

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 1:20pm

Amelie is the most vulnerable. Bandstand isn't very far behind.

Indecent will receive the best play nomination that will keep it open at least until the ceremony.

Foxes has already announced one extension.

#27

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 1:47pm

It wouldn't surprise me if Amélie pulled a Bright Star or American Psycho and closed in mid-June. I think Bandstand will be next, likely Labor Day weekend.

#28

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 1:52pm

If Comet gets the most nominations and/or most wins - which is very possible thanks to the technical aspects - might they be able to use that as a selling point? I mean if it happens the articles will be saying 'Natasha Pierre leads the nominations with...' etc.

#29

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 2:13pm

I doubt Groundhog Day is going anywhere. I think it will get at least a couple nominations, maybe even a win of some sort.

#30

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 3:10pm

I thought Groundhog Day was mostly well-received and might even win Best Musical over Evan Hansen and Come From Away. It's lack of love from the Drama Desk awards means absolutely nothing. I also predict that Andy Karl will win the Tony.

#31

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 3:18pm

Groundhog Day's critics score on show-score is a 70, compared to 77 for CFA, 81 for Natasha and 88 for DEH. It isn't winning best musical against three more acclaimed shows.

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 03:18 PM

#32

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 3:25pm

Andy Karl has a very, very small outside shot at the Tony (the Olivier, the good publicity for going on despite a torn ACL), but DEH is such a phenomenon right now because of Ben Platt. Unless there's a huge wave of backlash against DEH and Platt in particular in the next month, odds are 90% Platt, 10% Karl.

I don't think DEH is so safe for Best Musical-- assuming the nominees are Comet, DEH, GHD, and CFA, I can see a scenario where DEH and Comet end up splitting the vote, but in that event CFA would probably win.

Also, how long do we see DEH lasting after Platt leaves? Unless they find someone on his level that elevates the material, I can imagine it making it to spring 2018, maaaybe early summer, but no further.

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 03:25 PM

#33

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 3:46pm

I always ask the same question about this time every year: do the Tonys really provide a box office "bump"? I remember Gentleman's Guide seemed to pick up after its Tony successes but are there other examples? After all, newspaper theater news is disappearing, and with blah TV coverage and ratings possible for the Tonys themselves, why should it matter to the ticket buying public?

#34

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 3:51pm

Shows that win Best Musical always get a big box office bump, even Hamilton managed to (through introducing ridiculously high premium prices and putting them on sale immediately after the Tonys). Smaller shows like Gentleman's Guide and Fun Home really benefitted from winning that award.

Otherwise it tends to be down to if there's any standout performances on Tony night.

#35

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 4:00pm

wonkit said: "I always ask the same question about this time every year: do the Tonys really provide a box office "bump"? I remember Gentleman's Guide seemed to pick up after its Tony successes but are there other examples? After all, newspaper theater news is disappearing, and with blah TV coverage and ratings possible for the Tonys themselves, why should it matter to the ticket buying public?"

Kinky Boots sold out quite well after the Tonys up to the following New Years. Also tourists will pay attention to shows that win multiple Tonys or win few but significant such as Best Musical, Book etc.

A recent example was I hosted family this past week from out of the country. They had interest in seeing KB because they thought Lauper was actually in the cast. When they heard that she wasn't but heard about the accolades they collected, they were equally if not more interested in seeing it for the actual show and not a specific cast

#36

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 4:02pm

wonkit said: "with blah TV coverage and ratings possible for the Tonys themselves, why should it matter to the ticket buying public?"

Often times, shows get votes (and win) from producers who feel the Tony win will boost a show's sales on tour. Gentleman's Guide is a perfect example. Beautiful and Aladdin are shows that, across the country, would sell themselves, so Guide had the most to gain by proclaiming itself "Best Musical."

#37

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 5:20pm

Amelie for sure. Doubt it will make it to Tonys night.

Bandstand & Groundhog Day probably hinge on how the nominations will go. I suspect Bronx Tale & War Paint can probably make it through the summer regardless of how nominations go. Everything else I think is a sure bet to last at least through summer or longer. Charlie & the Chocolate Factory could be a surprise post-Tonys closing if the bad reviews & lack of noms really hurt it.

Possibly Cats too but I expect that will last through the summer or at least until around its one year mark.

#38

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 6:11pm

thealtoslament said: "Andy Karl has a very, very small outside shot at the Tony (the Olivier, the good publicity for going on despite a torn ACL), but DEH is such a phenomenon right now because of Ben Platt. Unless there's a huge wave of backlash against DEH and Platt in particular in the next month, odds are 90% Platt, 10% Karl.

I don't think DEH is so safe for Best Musical-- assuming the nominees are Comet, DEH, GHD, and CFA, I can see a scenario where DEH and Comet end up splitting the vote, but in that event CFA would probably win.

Also, how long do we see DEH lasting after Platt leaves? Unless they find someone on his level that elevates the material, I can imagine it making it to spring 2018, maaaybe early summer, but no further.

"

Seems to me there's just as much likelihood of some Karl backlash. Not his fault, obviously, and he is a trooper but, still, he is doing half as many shows as Platt.

#39

Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

Posted: 4/28/17 at 6:46pm

I really don't think that they're going to hold an injury against AK. Not his fault, like you said, and the fact that he's even performing is huge (on a reduced schedule, yeah, but he has a full ACL tear and everyone I've known that's had one could barely walk until they had surgery.) In another universe we could've ended up with a Cheyenne Jackson/Xanadu situation.

I really am not trying to discount the work that Platt is doing over at DEH. My point was that any non-acting award that DEH is nominated for or wins is pretty much entirely on the strength of its cast, especially Platt, elevating the material. Lately, I've seen more and more people come out and talk about the pretty major story/structure problems and criticizing the music, whereas I'd seen a lot more worship of it the past few months than I do now.

I have trouble articulating my points sometimes, so I don't know why I keep using message boards :P

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 06:46 PM

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