Closing notices Post Tony Nominations

[nycesq]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:10am

Which shows do you expect will post closing notices after the tony nominations are announced (and are presumably shut out)?

 

Which shows do you think will hold on till the end of the summer?

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:15am

I've heard some mixed stuff about Amelie, and it didn't get any love at the Drama Desk nominations, so I'm not too optimistic about it's luck at the Tonys

[Willie4316]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:16am

Amélie and Groundhog Day, maybe Bandstand if they don't get major Noms or wins. 

Charlie, Great Comet, War Paint, and Come From Away I expect we'll see running through the summer easily

[cam5y]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:24am

Come From Away is going to run for longer than that whatever happens with the Tony nominations (and I am optimistic about its Tony chances, for best book at the least). It's in a smaller theatre, and it's not that expensive. We'll see how long the cast sticks around, but it's the show that's the draw.

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 11:24 AM

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:24am

Amélie, Groundhog Day, 

 Bandstand if no noms then by August

Great Comet, WarPaint and Cats by the end of summer  the first two will last I'm guessing until their star vechiles leave or are done their contracts

Not new to this season: ON you feet by the end of summer

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:24am

Amelie

[thealtoslament]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:33am

Amelie, probably. Maybe Bandstand, maaaybe War Paint (but I could give that another few months on the strength of LuPone/Ebersole.) 

I'm slightly more optimistic than most about Groundhog Day because I don't expect it to get completely shut out, but I can see it making it only into the fall before closing. Same with Charlie and Anastasia, because they are well-known properties with a (presumably) pretty high advance. 

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 11:33 AM

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:36am

If Groundhog Day gets nominated for Best Musical, I doubt the producers will post a closing notice anytime soon.

[thealtoslament]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:40am

A good showing at the Tony noms could be the bump that GHD needs. Fingers crossed that it is, honestly. That cast is too talented for it to not be a hit. 

[ChairinMain]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:42am

How is Play that Goes Wrong doing?

[little_sally]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:53am

ChairinMain said: "How is Play that Goes Wrong doing?

 

They just put another block of tickets on sale, so I suppose pretty well?

 

[froote]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:53am

Anastasia wont be closing in the fall. It doesn't need reviews or Tonys to do well.

[Robbie2]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 11:57am

Amelie and not sure Great Comet can last without Groban after the summer.

Bandstand could also be gone by summer.

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:14pm

WAR PAINT just made a million dollars last week. Unless things really go south, they should run comfortably into the fall/winter.

I worry about THE GREAT COMET without Groban, but the word of mouth on that show is amazing. I think they'll still make money post-Groban, but no where near as much.

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:16pm

I doubt Groundhog Day will close this summer, no matter what. I say it has a year at a minimum 

[little_sally]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:16pm

I would think Comet is pursuing a big name for Pierre, which is why Oak will only be there for 2 months.

[leighmiserables]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:22pm

little_sally said: "I would think Comet is pursuing a big name for Pierre, which is why Oak will only be there for 2 months.

 

"

I was thinking the same thing, though I'm not sure how I feel about it. Though Josh is definitely there to be a big ticket draw, he is perfect for the role. I'm worried that whoever replaces Oak will be more "stunt casting," but I supposed I'd rather have a mediocre Pierre than have the show close completely. 

If it somehow manages to snatch Best Musical from DEH (not likely, I know, but definitely possible) I don't think they'll have any problem with keeping ticket sales up. 

[JustAnotherNewYorker]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:23pm

Jeffrey Karasarides said: "If Groundhog Day gets nominated for Best Musical, I doubt the producers will post a closing notice anytime soon."

 

^^^ this, please

 

They didn't help themselves in ticket sales by running Philanthropy on the Today show. Not the best advertisement song for the show, especially compared with Today's Great Comet performance

 

 

Click Here To Toggle Spoiler Content

plus, it spoils the big laugh when the tap dancers split and you see the drummer is in the giant groundhog costume...

 

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 12:23 PM

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:23pm

Interesting that no one mentioned A Doll's House Pt 2 or Indecent.  I am hoping that the great reviews that ADH got (and I am guessing 5 - 6 Tony nominations) will turn the tide, so it at least leads to a decent and profitable run.  If people continue to have no interest based on the title, it could be soon.  

I assume that Indecent has a relatively high nut, but will get lost if ADH catches on, given the competition (for limited ticket sales) of Sweat and Oslo.  Why do these things all have to open at the same time?  Provides no opportunity for the relatively frequent theatre goer to get to them all.  (I know why...I just find it frustrating.  Given how good winter business was this summer, maybe there will be a little more balance next season).  

I wouldn't be surprised if Six Degrees closes early.  No advance (I assume, based on the preview grosses) and opening during a glut of shows that all got really good reviews.

I really want to see it when I get up in late May, but I fear that Bandstand is in a tough situation.  No advance, better reviews than anyone expected, but not NYT.  Probably get a decent number of Tony nods, but not likely to be musical, which is the important one.  

I also wonder if GHD's mediocre business following good reviews is related to people wanting to wait until they are comfortable they are not going to get to the theatre, only to find out that Andy Karl is not in it.  While he is not a box office attraction, his reviews would have guaranteed a star making turn if the show was a hit. if that is not the reason, it could be in trouble...although a bunch of Tony nods and a good performance on the show could make a big difference.

Looking in the other direction, The Little Foxes has raised its prices dramatically, I assume since its reviews.  Is there any opportunity for it to extend or is something already scheduled.  I don't know what percentage of its grosses are inhibited by low-priced subscriptions, but the price increases will insure increased grosses to the extend possible.  I assume that extending at the higher prices would be a huge boon for MTC.

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 12:23 PM

[little_sally]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:29pm

I could see ADHP2 (if the raves don't help) and Indecent closing post-Tonys but not post-nominations. They both stand to get nominated for Best Play, so I can't see them closing before the awards.

I agree on Six Degrees. I saw it last night and the mezzanine was very empty. I just don't think it's a must-see, and I guess Allison Janney isn't much of a draw. I can see her and the show getting nominated but I doubt either will win.

Updated On: 4/28/17 at 12:29 PM

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:40pm

I don't see GREAT COMET lasting much longer once Groban leaves. It's always at TKTS for 50% off now w/Groban.

 

COME FROM AWAY will be running for a while, with or without winning Best Musical. 

[dianamorales]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 12:58pm

I feel like war paint could close any day now. Nothing against the show itself- I just haven't heard anything about it in weeks and sometimes I even forget it exists.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 1:12pm

1) A Doll's House Part 2 is a limited run, so I imagine it will just finish out its run. I do hope its box office picks up now that reviews (rave reviews, at that) are out, but it was never in it to be a long-running show.

2) dianamorales, did you not read further up the thread where it said that War Paint just made a million dollars last week? I doubt they'll close "any day now."

[Alex Kulak2]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 1:16pm

dianamorales, we were all saying that In Transit was going to close any day now for 5 months

[10086sunset]

Posted: 4/28/17 at 1:20pm

Amelie is the most vulnerable. Bandstand isn't very far behind. 

Indecent will receive the best play nomination that will keep it open at least until the ceremony. 

Foxes has already announced one extension.