As you said, there is considerable potential for variance from one venue to another, so there's no way to definitively answer your question.
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In this production, the chandelier does not "crash" in the manner that it does in the London/New York versions. I saw it near the beginning of the run and the chandelier didn't drop at all; it just rattled a bit and some sparks shot out of it.
Some have said that it has dropped during later tour stops, but even if this is true, it does not fall from the ceiling and land on the stage like it does in London/New York; it remains out over the orchestra seating area and stops short of audience heads. Consequently, if you are seated behind the mezzanine or balcony overhang, you may not see the chandelier at all.
If you've seen the original Hal Prince productions (i.e., London, New York, or previous touring companies), you may be disappointed in Cameron Mackintosh's "re-imagined" version. Personally, I felt that it changed a lot of things for no reason, and virtually none of the changes were improvements. Your mileage may vary.
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