Disney Theatricals

Was there ever a time when three Disney shows were running at the same time? It seems like "Frozen" is just limping along (rightfully so, it's dreadful) but I went back to "Tarzan" and "Little Mermaid" grosses, and though it was ten years ago they rarely broke a million.

Wondering if Disney will make like Forrest Gump carrying the wounded solider on their back ("Frozen" just to dominate Broadway? Is "Hercules" happening? "Moana"?

The last time Disney was able to successfully run 3 shows simultaneously with all shows not closing within that year was from 2000-2004 when The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast, and Aida  were all running. There should be an asterisk for this time period, as Aida was not sold/marketed as a Disney musical  and was simply produced by Disney theatrical.

 

Frozen's grosses are very much in line with Mary Poppins in terms of both capacity and sales potential %. So don't say the show is limping along. Most producers only dream about having a musical grossing consistently over $1M a week (with the lone exceptions being Motown, and Spiderman Turn off the Dark, whose weekly nuts were around $1M). There is also no way Frozen's costs more then $900k a week to run, and is likely closer to $800k as Disney may have lofty expectation in terms of sales, but they are known to have their costs down to a science. If we take the higher estimate of a running cost of $900k,Frozen has had a gross profit of $48.7 Million dollars, but even if we estimate a running cost of $1M the show has had a gross profit of $42M. Haters are going to hate, but at this point I can say with 99.9% certainty that Frozen is a hit.  Frozen may not be a runaway hit along the lines of The Lion King Or Beauty and the Beast, but it is also not a failure along the lines of The Little Mermaid nor Tarzan.  Its grosses are in line with Mary Poppins at this point in its run, with its first year's grosses were significantly higher. Frozen appears to be turning into a sleeper hit, which we haven't had on Broadway since the 2015-2016 season with Waitress and School of Rock. The later averaged 68% gross potential for the first 2 years of its 3 year run, and the former averaging 84% of its gross potential for the first 2 years of its runs excluding the limited runs of Sara  Bareilles. I know people have grown accustom to shows only being considered "hits" if they are playing to SRO crowds, and ones that don't quickly close, but that is much more of a recent phenomenon.  Beautiful only played to SRO crowds for 6 months of its first year on the boards, and it is now approaching its 6th year on Broadway. Avenue Q and Rock of Ages never played to SRO crowds and both ran for about 6 years. I can say with some certainty that unless the grosses plummet in the Fall, Frozen will be around through at least March of 2020, as there is no way Disney would close Frozen prior to Frozen 2 opening in theaters which should goose its grosses. Will it run for 6 years at this point? I can't say, but I will say at this point if give the show a 90% odds of playing at least 2 years on Broadway and 60% odds of making it to 1000 performances.  At this point though, Frozen  is a "hit", but what kind of "hit" it is only time will tell.

DoTheDood said: "This also is more important because of the BatB revival, like if they can't have 3 shows running, a 4th show will really drop their profits. I really doubt they will do anything with The Lion King, so either Aladdin or Frozen have to close before that opens. And then if Hercules is transferring (which is a complete guess at this point, but Disney is at the very least thinking of it as a possibility) both shows will need to close beforehand."

Part of me wonders if Beauty and the Beast is being produced for the reopening of the Palace in 2021/2022. Its also highly unlikely for Hercules to open within the next season even if its a hit at central park considering the show is only playing a week, and will have to be substantially altered for Broadway since it it going to be a public works production with an ensemble of over 40+ community theater members. At this point though, I don't think the Disney will be altering their current line up until the 2020-2021 season at earliest. 

DotheDood The Beauty and the Beast revival was announced in one of the many puff pieces on Disney Theatricals 25th anniversary. I think it was simply mentioned in the Dateline feature, but there was no mention or timeline specifically because Schumacher didn't want to be rushed into something that wasn't ready for the spotlight. *cough*cough*Frozen being rushed to Broadway by Bob Iger*cough*cough* He said something similar in his interview with Broadway.com, along with the mentioning of some new Aida production being in the works. It won't a a "insert year" anniversary production along the line of this years revival of Oklahoma being brought to Broadway as part of R&H estate's 75th anniversary push for the show, On the Town's 2014 revival being sold at the 60th anniversary production, the 2009 Hair revival originating at a 40th anniversary concert, or the 2008 South Pacific revival being considered the 60th anniversary production.  

bdn223 said: 
"Frozen's grosses are very much in line withMary Poppinsin terms of both capacity and sales potential %. So don't say the show is limping along. Most producers only dream about having a musical grossing consistently over $1M a week (with the lone exceptions beingMotown, and Spiderman Turn off the Dark, whose weekly nuts were around $1M). There is also no way Frozen's costs more then $900k a week to run, and is likely closer to $800k as Disney may have lofty expectation in terms of sales, but they are known to have their costs down to a science. If we take the higher estimate of a running cost of $900k,Frozen has had a gross profit of $48.7 Million dollars, but even if we estimate a running cost of $1M the show has had a gross profit of $42M. Haters are going to hate,but at this point I can say with 99.9% certainty thatFrozen is a hit.Frozenmay not be a runaway hit along the lines ofThe Lion King OrBeauty and the Beast, but it is also not a failure along the lines ofThe Little Mermaidnor Tarzan. Its grosses are in line withMary Poppinsat this point in its run, with its first year's grosses were significantly higher.Frozenappears to be turning into a sleeper hit, which we haven't had on Broadway since the 2015-2016 season withWaitressandSchool of Rock.The later averaged 68% gross potential for the first 2 years of its 3 year run, and the former averaging 84% of its gross potential for the first 2 years of its runs excluding the limited runs of Sara Bareilles. I know people have grown accustom to shows only being considered "hits" if they are playing to SRO crowds, and ones that don't quickly close, but that is much more of a recent phenomenon.Beautiful only played to SRO crowds for 6 months of its first year on the boards, and it is now approaching its 6th year on Broadway.Avenue QandRock of Agesnever played to SRO crowds and both ran for about 6 years. I can say with some certainty that unless the grosses plummet in the Fall, Frozen will be around through at least March of 2020, as there is no way Disney would close Frozen prior to Frozen 2 opening in theaters which should goose its grosses. Will it run for 6 years at this point?I can't say, but I will say at this point if give the show a 90% odds of playing at least 2 years on Broadway and 60% odds of making it to 1000 performances.At this point though,Frozenis a "hit", but what kind of "hit" it is only time will tell."

Agree with this. Frozen will likely pick up over the summer, and the Frozen 2 push could help it during the autumn period. However, Frozen has been affected by the "Underwhelming grosses" narrative from the very beginning (remember those articles last summer about how the international transfers could be cancelled?) and seeing it fall out of the Top 10, at the expense of Hadestown and Tootsie is a big kick in the teeth for Disney theatrical (Particularly when the latter is headlined by the actor who voiced the villain in the original Frozen!). I think that Frozen will still be in the Million Dollar Club when the grosses of those two start to decline, but right now, Frozen's record lows give a lot of encouragement to the detractors...

Apparently, Caissie Levy recently said on Twitter that she was contracted until February 2020. I think Frozen is almost guaranteed to make it to this point, but will it still be around when the international rollout begins in Summer 2020? It depends on the next few months...

JennH said: "ElphabaGoodman said: "There was a time in 2006 and 2007 when Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, Tarzan and Mary Poppins were all running at the same time"

AND Aida. There were legit FIVE Disney musicals running all at once around that time. Granted that didn't last super long, one closed ( Aida, I believe) so that period of 5 running at once lasted maybe only a few months.

"

Aida closed in 2004, so before Mary Poppins and Tarzan