Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though — Page 2

Falsettolands said: "Kad said: "We're at the point of the Tonys race where people are starting to create competitive outcomes for dark horses that aren't very likely (see last year when "Audra and Nicole will split votes and Jasmine will win!" somehow got some traction).

The fact is there are very, very few instances of a dark horse nominee pulling an upset at the Tonys."

Sort of related, can anyone recall if Chris Ashley was considered the "dark horse" the year he won for CFA? I look at that outlier in re. Best Musical and Best Revival as an indicator that sometimes things can happen that don't follow formula"

That was viewed as Greif and Chavkin splitting votes causing Ashley to win.

I have less of an idea about the 2017 Tonys for Best Direction of a Musical than some of you, but here are my guesses:

Dear Evan Hansen was renowned for its performances and score. The direction wasn’t as fancy.

Great Comet had eye-catching direction by Chavkin and I am still a little miffed it didn’t win for the score and orchestrations, but DEH was probably always winning that. The show had also been around in New York City for a while, so it may not have felt as new - and many people liked it in smaller venues more. 

Come From Away was and is a beloved musical. People loved it and still do. I was less of a fan of the musical than some folks, including one of my own children, but I do think the direction is clever and keeps the show moving. I think Tony voters wanted to honor it in a significant way.

These guesses might be totally wrong.

bear882 said: "I have less of an idea about the 2017 Tonys for Best Direction of a Musical than some of you, but here are my guesses:

Dear Evan Hansenwas renowned for its performances and score. The direction wasn’t as fancy.

Great Comethad eye-catching direction by Chavkin and I am still a little miffed it didn’t win for the scoreand orchestrations, butDEHwas probably always winning that. The show had also been around in New York City for a while, so it may not have felt as new - and many people liked it in smaller venues more.

Come From Awaywas and is a beloved musical. People loved it and still do. I was less of a fan of the musical than some folks, including one of my own children, but I do think the direction is clever and keeps the show moving. I think Tony voters wanted to honor it in a significant way.

These guesses might be totally wrong."

Dave Malloy going home empty-handed at the Tonys that year is definitely one of the bigger Tony injustices in recent memory, imo.