Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though
Stand-by Joined: 10/3/22
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#1
Posted: 5/20/26 at 3:04pm
"Constantly checking who's predicted to win each Tony, hoping to find some data point that says your fave is still in with a chance? Yup, me too. So I built a page with all the data I could find for every Tony race:
* Kalshi’s predictions
* Gold Derby’s predictions
* Polymarket’s predictions (all updated hourly)
* Precursor awards like Drama Desk, OCC, and Drama League
* Critic Scores
* Audience Grades
* Award Scores (new score I added. It tracks noms and wins across the precursor awards plus the Tony noms, weighted by ceremony and category importance)
* Press picks: NYTimes, Variety, and Deadline picks for who should win (I’ll add more as they come in, let me know if I missed any)
https://broadwayscorecard.com/tony-awards/nominees
A few of the matchups are genuinely close this year. Curious what y'all find from the data with it all in one place. Though there is now a consensus winner (>70% across all markets) in 16 of the 24 categories.
I also added each performer’s Tony history next to their names, since I find that stuff interesting."
Stand-by Joined: 11/19/07
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#2
Posted: 5/22/26 at 8:03am
This is great. Hoping Ragtime and BLR come up a bit. Totally agree with Josh Henry and Luke Evans. Totally 1 and 2 for me.
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#3
Posted: 5/23/26 at 5:26pm
jazzicat said: "This is great. Hoping Ragtime and BLR come up a bit. Totally agree with Josh Henry and Luke Evans. Totally 1 and 2 for me."
I really hope cats gets more love tho
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#4
Posted: 5/23/26 at 5:37pm
IMHO, Cats deserves revival and Ragtime can go its leads. What Cats does with that show literally revives it.
Stand-by Joined: 9/14/17
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#5
Posted: 5/23/26 at 6:01pm
DramaTeach said: "IMHO, Cats deserves revival and Ragtime can go its leads. What Cats does with that show literally revives it."
Give Cats revival and let Ben Levi Ross have featured actor.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/30/17
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#6
Posted: 5/23/26 at 10:51pm
CATS deserves revival.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/30/17
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#7
Posted: 5/23/26 at 11:00pm
Kalshi is a hard outlier here with the CATS / Ragtime battle compared to the others (reviews, goldderby etc). CATS has it in the bag.
Chorus Member Joined: 3/5/11
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#8
Posted: 5/24/26 at 5:22am
Regarding predictions, I’ve seen a lot of critics & podcasters voice their love for Marla/ Layton/ the Book Writers of Titanique as either their personal picks to win, or the dark horse surprise. It makes me start to wonder if there’s enough love for this show to pull off a number of upsets on the big night (including Best Musical if Schmig/Lost Boys/ Two Strangers split enough votes).
Stand-by Joined: 10/3/22
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#9
Posted: 5/24/26 at 9:46am
CoffeeBreak said: "Kalshiis a hard outlier here with the CATS / Ragtime battle compared to the others (reviews, goldderby etc). CATS has it in the bag."
… Lear winning director at all the smaller awards / Ragtime beating cats at the drama league really makes me think this revival race is a lot closer than we all thought. I think it’s a toss up.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#10
Posted: 5/24/26 at 12:17pm
bmwpjager said: "Regarding predictions, I’ve seen a lot of critics & podcasters voice their love for Marla/ Layton/ the Book Writers of Titanique as either their personal picks to win, or the dark horse surprise. It makes me start to wonder if there’s enough love for this show to pull off a number of upsets on the big night (including Best Musical if Schmig/Lost Boys/ Two Strangers split enough votes)."
No chance, all those shows are far superior and I enjoyed Titanique.
Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#11
Posted: 5/24/26 at 1:41pm
We're at the point of the Tonys race where people are starting to create competitive outcomes for dark horses that aren't very likely (see last year when "Audra and Nicole will split votes and Jasmine will win!" somehow got some traction).
The fact is there are very, very few instances of a dark horse nominee pulling an upset at the Tonys.
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#12
Posted: 5/24/26 at 1:44pm
1 Minute Critic is launching a 4-part series. Less about who will win and more about how theatergoers, voters, and media define certain categories. Beginning with Best Performance by a Featured Actor/Actress. Discuss! Here's our take - it only takes a minute.
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/30/17
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#13
Posted: 5/24/26 at 3:52pm
Lear has been lucky and not been competing with Rauch and the CATS team or show. CATS will take both revival and director.
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#14
Posted: 5/24/26 at 5:23pm
Appreciate the effort that went in to this! Please take another look at the show pages for The Lost Boys and Jellicle Ball as there seems to be some data input errors on their awards sections. It may not substantially change the weighting but if the goal is to have a place where all of this information is listed it's better to be accurate. For example, Jellicle Ball is shown as having been nominated for Outer Critics Circle for both "Outstanding Direction of a Musical" and "Outstanding Director of a Musical". The same Jellicle double nomination for direction and director is listed for the Drama Desks. The Lost Boys won two drama desks but you have listed only one. Also, I see that for some categories for outer critics circle and drama desks you do not list their nominations or wins. Yet for the distinguished performer award for drama leagues in which many shows had performers nominated the category is is not listed as a nomination on any of the individual show pages but it does show as counting for the show with the winner (Ragtime). You might use some criteria that is not apparent - the "see all awards" URL on individual show pages (https://broadwayscorecard.com/award-score/2025-2026) leads to a broken link. *edited for clarity
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#15
Posted: 5/24/26 at 5:54pm
Also, I went to read the review of Schmigadoon that was scored a 100 from "the Recs" and saw a five star review there for The Lost Boys that was not listed on your website. Perhaps because Lost Boys was the last show to open of a very busy week and your site did not catch some of their reviews that came out late but maybe you can still add it as that same critic counted for the scores of Beaches, The Balusters and Schmigadoon. I really like the site, just wanting to help in your striving for weighted consistency!
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/20/13
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#16
Posted: 5/24/26 at 6:12pm
CoffeeBreak said: "Lear has been lucky and not been competing with Rauch and the CATS team or show. CATS will take both revival and director."
Lolz.
Broadway Star Joined: 12/9/23
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#17
Posted: 5/24/26 at 9:31pm
Between this thread and the column that came out today about the Cats roadshow party being held at Le Bernardin..... lol....
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#18
Posted: 5/24/26 at 10:43pm
GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "Between this thread and the column that came out today about the Cats roadshow party being held at Le Bernardin..... lol...."
so you're saying both things are not happening? are Ragtime and lear are getting both revival and director? if so, prove to me where the direction was, b/c I didn't see any in the show
Broadway Star Joined: 12/9/23
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#19
Posted: 5/25/26 at 3:09am
malcs98 said: "GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "Between this thread and the column that came out today about the Cats roadshow party being held at Le Bernardin..... lol...."
so you're saying both things are not happening? are Ragtime and lear are getting both revival and director? if so, prove to me where the direction was, b/c I didn't see any in the show"
Woah nowhere did I say a single one of those things
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#20
Posted: 5/25/26 at 8:42am
malcs98 said: "GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "Between this thread and the column that came out today about the Cats roadshow party being held at Le Bernardin..... lol...."
so you're saying both things are not happening? are Ragtime and lear are getting both revival and director? if so, prove to me where the direction was, b/c I didn't see any in the show"
I’m really tired of people saying that there was no direction at Ragtime. The pacing of the show - which was so much better than in the original - is just one sign of the director’s hand at work. This isn’t a dig at Jellicle Ball which I loved or that Ragtime should win over Cats. But these days there are directors - Alex Timbers being the prime example - who like to do things to call attention to themselves to the detriment of narrative clarity.
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#21
Posted: 5/25/26 at 8:57am
Sometimes I wonder if people here actually know what direction means.
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#22
Posted: 5/25/26 at 12:35pm
The winner of best musical with win best director. Ragtime and Cats aren’t enjoyed enough to give them director. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if lost boys/Michael Arden win musical and director.
Broadway Star Joined: 11/18/13
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#23
Posted: 5/25/26 at 1:53pm
Kad said: "We're at the point of the Tonys race where people are starting to create competitive outcomes for dark horses that aren't very likely (see last year when "Audra and Nicole will split votes and Jasmine will win!" somehow got some traction).
The fact is there are very, very few instances of a dark horse nominee pulling an upset at the Tonys."
Sort of related, can anyone recall if Chris Ashley was considered the "dark horse" the year he won for CFA? I look at that outlier in re. Best Musical and Best Revival as an indicator that sometimes things can happen that don't follow formula
Featured Actor Joined: 6/4/10
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#24
Posted: 5/25/26 at 9:53pm
My gut feeling is that Ragtime and Cats are very close, but the road vote will push Ragtime over the edge to win revival now that they've announced a tour. I personally would vote for Jellicle Ball as a true reinvention of the material, but I'm not a Tony voter.
The hardest Tony category to define. And the one performance that defines i#25
Posted: 5/27/26 at 11:15am
A limited number of tickets for The 79th Annual Tony Awards will be available at a discounted rate of $495.
ummm what the hell is the average price???
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