Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though

This is great. Hoping Ragtime and BLR come up a bit. Totally agree with Josh Henry and Luke Evans. Totally 1 and 2 for me. 

IMHO, Cats deserves revival and Ragtime can go its leads. What Cats does with that show literally revives it.

CATS deserves revival. 

Regarding predictions, I’ve seen a lot of critics & podcasters voice their love for Marla/ Layton/ the Book Writers of Titanique as either their personal picks to win, or the dark horse surprise. It makes me start to wonder if there’s enough love for this show to pull off a number of upsets on the big night (including Best Musical if Schmig/Lost Boys/ Two Strangers split enough votes).

bmwpjager said: "Regarding predictions, I’ve seen a lot of critics & podcasters voice their love for Marla/ Layton/ the Book Writers of Titanique as either their personal picks to win, or the dark horse surprise. It makes me start to wonder if there’s enough love for this show to pull off a number of upsets on the big night (including Best Musical if Schmig/Lost Boys/ Two Strangers split enough votes)."

No chance, all those shows are far superior and I enjoyed Titanique. 

1 Minute Critic is launching a 4-part series. Less about who will win and more about how theatergoers, voters, and media define certain categories. Beginning with Best Performance by a Featured Actor/Actress. Discuss!  Here's our take - it only takes a minute.

Appreciate the effort that went in to this! Please take another look at the show pages for The Lost Boys and Jellicle Ball as there seems to be some data input errors on their awards sections. It may not substantially change the weighting but if the goal is to have a place where all of this information is listed it's better to be accurate. For example, Jellicle Ball is shown as having been nominated for Outer Critics Circle for both "Outstanding Direction of a Musical" and "Outstanding Director of a Musical".  The same Jellicle double nomination for direction and director is listed for the Drama Desks.  The Lost Boys won two drama desks but you have listed only one.  Also, I see that for some categories for outer critics circle and drama desks you do not list their nominations or wins.  Yet for the distinguished performer award for drama leagues in which many shows had performers nominated the category is is not listed as a nomination on any of the individual show pages but it does show as counting for the show with the winner (Ragtime).  You might use some criteria that is not apparent - the "see all awards" URL on individual show pages (https://broadwayscorecard.com/award-score/2025-2026) leads to a broken link.  *edited for clarity

 

Updated On: 5/24/26 at 05:23 PM

CoffeeBreak said: "Lear has been lucky and not been competing with Rauch and the CATS team or show. CATS will take both revival and director."

Lolz.

GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "Between this thread and the column that came out today about the Cats roadshow party being held at Le Bernardin..... lol...."

so you're saying both things are not happening? are Ragtime and lear are getting both revival and director? if so, prove to me where the direction was, b/c I didn't see any in the show

Updated On: 5/24/26 at 10:43 PM

malcs98 said: "GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "Between this thread and the column that came out today about the Cats roadshow party being held at Le Bernardin..... lol...."

so you're saying both things are not happening? are Ragtime and lear are getting both revival and director? if so, prove to me where the direction was, b/c I didn't see any in the show"

I’m really tired of people saying that there was no direction at Ragtime. The pacing of the show - which was so much better than in the original - is just one sign of the director’s hand at work. This isn’t a dig at Jellicle Ball which I loved or that Ragtime should win over Cats. But these days there are directors - Alex Timbers being the prime example - who like to do things to call attention to themselves to the detriment of narrative clarity. 

The winner of best musical with win best director.  Ragtime and Cats aren’t enjoyed enough to give them director.  Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if lost boys/Michael Arden win musical and director. 

My gut feeling is that Ragtime and Cats are very close, but the road vote will push Ragtime over the edge to win revival now that they've announced a tour. I personally would vote for Jellicle Ball as a true reinvention of the material, but I'm not a Tony voter.