Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though

[goodtimes123]

Every Tony prediction signal in one place: markets, critics, audiences, precursor awards. Schmigadoon is indeed now the heavy favorite. They're split on Cats/Ragtime though#1

Posted: 5/20/26 at 3:04pm

"Constantly checking who's predicted to win each Tony, hoping to find some data point that says your fave is still in with a chance? Yup, me too. So I built a page with all the data I could find for every Tony race:

* Kalshi’s predictions
* Gold Derby’s predictions
* Polymarket’s predictions (all updated hourly)
* Precursor awards like Drama Desk, OCC, and Drama League
* Critic Scores
* Audience Grades 
* Award Scores (new score I added. It tracks noms and wins across the precursor awards plus the Tony noms, weighted by ceremony and category importance)
* Press picks: NYTimes, Variety, and Deadline picks for who should win (I’ll add more as they come in, let me know if I missed any)

https://broadwayscorecard.com/tony-awards/nominees 

A few of the matchups are genuinely close this year. Curious what y'all find from the data with it all in one place. Though there is now a consensus winner (>70% across all markets) in 16 of the 24 categories.

I also added each performer’s Tony history next to their names, since I find that stuff interesting."