in terms of ticket sales, Rent seems likely to be the first long-running show to close... the Nederlander however is not a sought after space. The theatre was dark for 3 years prior to Rent's transfer... and they did very little to spruce up the place... the Nederlander has always felt like a mix of a high school gymnasium and a warehouse with carpet and seats. I can't imagine that the space costs nearly as much as the other theatres owned by the Nederlanders. I once heard that Rent only had to sell half it's house (including tkts ticket sales) to break even for the week... lately it's been in the mid to high 70's in capacity. And they've been creative with stunt casting... not to mention the money that the producers got for the Avenue Q deal in Vegas... They have money to spare, I think they understood Larson and would put more money into an already profitable venture. I think it has about a year and a half left... more if this movie with Chris Columbus gets made(Chris Columbus?! Can you IMAGINE?!?.... sorry that's another thread) or less if the movie is an utter failure by having Chris "Mrs. Doubtfire" Columbus directing it... he doesn't do too well with overly sentimental work... "Stepmom" anyone? ...again... another thread. That being said, if they took the time to re-tool the show, get Greif back in there, it would have a much longer run. Sadly the show is already dated, but I lived in the Mid-West, my sister LOVES Seasons of Love... not sure she ever listened to the rest of it, but she loved that song.. am I sharing too much?
Beauty and the Beast... well, they've certainly set the show up to run for ages since they moved houses. The much smaller Lunt-Fontanne is perfect for this children's theatre piece in it's current downsized version. The fact that the last time I saw it, the cake fork hated every minute of "Be Our Guest" didn't seem to bother the children... nor did the audible gears when the petal drops as the beast dies... (oh crap, should I have put spoiler in the subject line?) But, as Gerard Allesendrini once put it, "Beauty's been decreased", and it's been good for business... no one expects a show to run forever at the Palace... I give Beauty and the Beast 16 enchanting years on Broadway... why? I dunno.. sounds like a good round number.
Is anyone still following this? Chicago. (Overheard when just about every tourist plans their trip to New York) "Oh, but Bill, Chicago is playing... you liked that movie, with that Catherine Zeta Jones. You hum the songs. Let's go and tell everyone that we saw the show on Broadway." And as they sell out just about every performance, this show is here to stay... Good for them. They were struggling before the movie... Bernadette Peters in Gypsy kicked them out of the Shubert, they moved to the Ambassador and crossed their fingers. Even though I was a bit upset at how matter of factly Barry Weissler talked about stunt casting a few days ago in the Times, I have to respect a business man who knows what the people want... Honestly, if this show is ever in trouble, all they have to do is put up enough money to get one of the stars of the movie to do that role on stage... it's here for at least 5 more years.... hot-cha... skidoo.
Phantom.... here's what's great about Phantom. The stage musical will get people in to see the movie musical. If the movie musical is any good, that will get the tourists in to see the stage musical again and everyone will "remember your first time." I'm not sure the preview before "Farenheit 9/11" was such a wise move. Most of the people I was in the theater with laughed... some of them hysterically... not exactly the "first time" you want the movie going audience to remember. But who knows... looks like we're bracing for a movie musical revival and Phantom just might benefit from the genre's popularity. Gotta say, Phantom WILL be the longest running show in Broadway history... it's like Cameron's tri-fecta.
Lion King... Come ON Disney! Give us another show in that magnificent theatre... That being said... kids love it... tourists love it... and to Broadway theatrical producers THAT IS the circle of life, Simba. Don't blame them, blame the fact that when it's capacity fluctuates, it goes from 101.5% to 101.3%.... this show is doing gangbusters, even under a heightened terror alert. I still have to hand it to Disney... they gave Taymor complete control over their most commercial property to date, sans Mickey himself. She did great things visually, and it's still selling out. That being said, I think the show needs an acting coach. Design is not everything. I think this will outlast every other show mentioned here, but will not beat POTO's record... maybe Cats... HA HA HA How fitting.
Please someone let me know you got this far...
Robert
I wish the stage were as narrow as the wire of a tightrope dancer, so that no incompetent would dare step upon it. -Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe
