Leading Actor in a Play - all the Tony-eligible possibilities listed

Here are all the eligible men for Leading Actor in a Play. This was hard to do because I was not sure about billing in all cases - please let me know if there are any errors.

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY (19 possibilities)
Accent on Youth - David Hyde Pierce
All My Sons - John Lithgow
The American Plan - no one eligible
Blithe Spirit - Rupert Everett
Desire Under the Elms - Pablo Schreiber
Dividing the Estate - no one eligible
Equus- Richard Griffiths, Daniel Radcliffe
Exit the King - Geoffrey Rush
God of Carnage - Jeff Daniels, James Gandolfini
Hedda Gabler - no one eligible
Impressionism - Jeremy Irons
Irena's Vow - no one eligible
Joe Turner's Come and Gone - no one eligible
A Man of All Seasons - Frank Langella
Mary Stuart - no one eligible
The Norman Conquests - no one eligible
reasons to be pretty - Thomas Sadoski
The Philanthropist - Matthew Broderick
The Seagull - Peter Sarsgaard
Speed-the-Plow - Raul Esparza, Jeremy Piven
33 Variations - no one eligible
To Be or Not to Be - David Rasche
Waiting for Godot - Bill Irwin, Nathan Lane

My predictions:
Raul Esparza
Bill Irwin
Daniel Radcliffe
Geoffrey Rush
Thomas Sadoski
with James Gandolfini and Nathan Lane as #6 and #7.

ETA: Updated for final eligibility rulings. Odd decision for Desire Under the Elms -- Dennehy, who is first billed, is being moved to Featured, while Schreiber is apparently staying in Lead.

---

Updated On: 5/1/09 at 09:50 AM

"(Piven is eligible only by technicality. He might as well not be.)"

The same could be said for Matthew Broderick, who is giving yet another numbingly bad performance.

Geoffrey Rush has it in the bag.

This all really couldn't be contained to one thread?

How does Rush not win this?

I think Mr. Pierce, Mr. Lithgow or Mr. Langella could slip in, not only because IMHO their performances were wonderful, even if their productions are not/were not; but, because I believe them to favorites among the Tony voters.

Realistically however, I think the race will be between Mr. Esparza and Mr. Rush. And I would be shocked if Mr. Rush didn't win.

Raul doesn't stand a chance against Rush. If anyone is going to give Rush a run for his money, it will be Irwin, Radcliffe, or Sadoski.

Raul was actually considered the frontrunner before Exit the King began

Yes, but while Equus ran with Speed-the-Plow, reasons to be pretty and Waiting for Godot also opened in the Spring -- so now Esparza's got competition coming from three more sides, not just one. You can't count out Irwin and Sadoski on the grounds that Raul was the favorite before Exit the King -- he was the front runner before them, too. So that doesn't make sense.

---