No, I think THE LION KING (plot-wise) is weaker than THE LITTLE MERMAID. MERMAID will be the new LION KING and Disney will close LK. They won't need it anymore on Broadway, and they'll have a new show to replace it.
I bet LK will close 2009.
"The Spectacle has, indeed, an emotional attraction of its own, but, of all the parts, it is the least artistic, and connected least with the art of poetry. For the power of Tragedy, we may be sure, is felt even apart from representation and actors. Besides, the production of spectacular effects depends more on the art of the stage machinist than on that of the poet."
--Aristotle