Longevity of Long Running Musical

How much longer do you think current long running musicals (Wicked, POTO, Chicago) have on Broadway?

And, how much longer do newer yet strong commercial hits (Dear Evan Hansen, Hamilton, Moulin Rouge, etc.) have on Broadway as well?

When the apocalypse or another Great Depression occurs, is when they’ll close i’d venture.
The thing is, even if they enter a period of low sales they still have the years of profit to backup the production.

Updated On: 2/24/20 at 02:11 PM

Hamilton and POTO will definitely be around forever, Hamilton because of its quality / continued demand and POTO because its become the staple tourist show. Like Phantom, Chicago has tourist appeal and it fills a certain niche, but I don't see it staying open forever. Maybe once they run out of housewives to stunt cast.

I do see Dear Evan Hansen potentially ending its run within the next few years. I think of the long running shows on Broadway right now, it will be the one to grow dated. So much of its plot revolves around tech and we have no idea what the social media landscape will look like in the next decade. I'm actually really interested to see what the legacy of DEH is going to be.

I have never gotten Phantom so I have no idea. I mean, it's fine. But I don't know why it has had such a long run, nevermind why it would continue to be successful.

If they spruced up Chicago, it could run forever. It's just a little sad going into the Ambassador. I wish the theater was in a better state. And while they're fine, the costumes could use some re-imagining.

After that Wicked Halloween special, I admit that I was swept up in the magic again. That score has some real stinkers but there's no reason for it to close anytime soon.

Hadestown will definitely run for the next few years, but I'm not sure it's going to have POTO / Hamilton staying power.

The one no one has mentioned yet is Book of Mormon. I wonder if the tide really turns against South Park how long BoM would last.

Enjolras5 said: "That's so true about DEH! I wonder if they'll change the script to include new technologies. The story is timeless but the use of technology is bound to change. (Cue a holographic Jared making a TikTok or whatever else is coming next in the world of technology.)

I don't think Moulin Rouge will last too long either; in my opinion it will close before any of the others mentioned.

What do people think about Hadestown?"

I bet that Hadestown will close by the end of 2022 at the latest. Despite the great business it is doing now, I just don't see this having the wide appeal that mega-long run shows have...it is too dark. I am guessing that once business starts to slow, it will go down quicker than expected, sort of like Titanic did in its day. Fun House was never as successful as Hadestown still is, but once it started, I seem to recall that it faded pretty quickly.

Re long-runs, unless there is a mega-recession or tourism drops precipitously, I am betting that Lion King, Wicked, Phantom and Hamilton will be open in a decade. (Lion King and Hamilton will probably be open in 20 years). BOM will still be open in 5 years, but I am not sure about a decade from now; I expect DEH and CFA to last another couple of years -- consistent with my view since they opened) but probably not run too much beyond that.

Chicago, I just don't know...it clearly doesn't make a lot of profit each year (I assume), but the grosses seem to have stabilized to an average weekly gross of $600K - $650K over the past several years. Depending on their weekly nut, and the rate at which it raises, it could be opened another year...ort another decade. I guess I really just don't have a clue on that one.