I think part of the reason Avenue Q won last year is because within the theatre industry, Wicked was generally not loved. It was respected for being the huge commercial hit it is, but not as a deathless piece of writing. I'm sure that in addition to Avenue Q's effective campaigning, enough people felt "Wicked is going to win Best Musical, but I really enjoyed Avenue Q more" for the vote to go the way it did. (I'd love to think that some of the voters also looked back and also said, "And I should have voted for Urinetown in 2002.")
The difference this year, I think, is that Spamalot is both an enormous hit and it got good enough reviews, which is an advantage over Wicked's situation last year. I think that's going to be enough to carry it to Best Musical.
Scoundrels deserves to be looked at as more of a contender, but I think that downbeat Times review is going to hurt it (even though most of the other reviews were very good). It also has been in Spamalot's shadow throughout, and is likely to remain so, as while Scoundrels is doing decent business, Spamalot has the imprimatur of sold-out smash. Spelling Bee has its ardent admirers, but it also has a few detractors, and I think it might fall victim (unfairly, of course) to the road market feeling burned for having voted for Avenue Q last year, and then not receiving a tour of the show. I think road voters are going to say, "I voted for the small show last year and got screwed, so this year I'm voting for the big show that's going to make me a lot of money." And as I mentioned above, Piazza will be the high art show that might take Best Actress and/or Best Score, but because of its limited commercial appeal, would probably not take the big prize. If the voters give it Score or Best Actress, they'll feel like they are taking care of Art while still voting for Commerce for Best Musical.
"Gif me the cobra jool!"
Updated On: 3/19/05 at 06:07 AM