My (WAY EARLY) Tony Predictions '04-'05....

[broadwayboy81]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 4:39pm

So, I've been bored today... and when that happens I make myself little assignments (lame... I know). Today I spent my time guessing the tony nominees and winners for '04-'05. This is quite the superfluous task considering half of the shows haven't even opened.

I've done my research, seen some of the shows in "tryouts," and tryed my best making educated guesses. I'm aware of how off I could be, but it was all in fun! So join in and let me know what you think!

(For some catagories I ranked 1-4 of how I think it could go and placed a "*" next to my "winners." Most of this isn't my "wish list," but instead it is my "who I think will win" list.)

Here goes:

Play

Director:

Democracy-2
Gem of the Ocean-4
12 Angry Men-2
*Doubt 1

Supporting Actor:

*Michael Cumpsty (Democracy)
Thomas Sadoski (Reckless)
(Whoever plays Mitch [Streetcar] should get a nod here)

Supporting Actress:

Carla Gugino (After the Fall)
Debra Monk (Reckless)
*Lisa Gay Hamilton (Gem of the Ocean)
(Whoever plays Stella [Streetcar] should get a nod here)

Lead Actor:

Phillip Bosco (12 Angry Men)
*John Earl Jelks (Gem of the Ocean)
James Naughton (Democracy)
Richard Thomas (Democracy)
Brian F O’Bryne (Doubt)

(Possibilities)
Denzel Washington (Caesar) miscast
Ethan Hawke (Glass Menagerie)
John C. Reilly (Streetcar) miscast

Lead Actress:

Mary Louise Parker (I wish…)
Phylicia Rashad
Laura Linney
*Cherry Jones (Doubt)
Natasha Richardson (Streetcar)

Jessica Lange (Glass Menagerie)
Brenda Blethyn

Best Revival:

Glass Menagerie-3
Reckless-2
12 Angry Men-2
*Streetcar-1

(Possibilities)
Julius Caesar
‘Night Mother

Best Play:

Democracy-2
Gem of the Ocean-3
*Doubt-1
Sight Unseen

One Person Shows:

Mario Cantone-2
Whoopi Goldberg-3
*Billy Crystal-1
Eve Ensler-4

Musical

Director:

Pacific Overtures- Amon Miyamoto
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels-Jack O’Brien
The Light in the Piazza-Bartlett Sher
*Spamalot-Mike Nichols (it’s Mike Nichols…)

Supporting Actor:

Gavin Creel
Gregory Jbara
*Hank Azaria
Christopher Sieber
Mark Harelik
(whoever plays Fabrizio in Piazza could get a nod if done right…)


Supporting Actress: (toughest category…)

Sherie Rene Scott- probably closest to beating Kelli
Joanna Gleason- too small?
*Kelli O’hara (Light in the Piazza… not Dracula) This is a great vehicle for her and the largest of roles in this category…
Maureen McGovern- close as well…
(Another Little Women Girl here)

Lead Actor:

Gary Beach
John Lithgow
Norbert Leo Butz-would be nice to see him win…
*Tim Curry (neck in neck)
*David Hyde Pierce (neck in neck)

Lead Actress:

*Victoria Clark (I’m placing all of my money on this win)
Sutton Foster
Ramona Keller
Christina Applegate
Eden Espinosa (though she didn’t do much “acting”)

Best Score:

*The Light in the Piazza (most deserving…)
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Spamalot
Little Women

Best Book:

The Light in the Piazza-3
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels-2
*Spamalot-1
Little Women-4

Choreography:

*La Cage-1
All Shook Up-2
Good Vibrations
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels

Orchestrations:

The Light in the Piazza-2
*Dirty Rotten Scoundrels-1
Spamalot
Little Women

Best Revival:

*La Cage-1
Pacific Overtures
Sweet Charity-2

Best Musical: (who knows????)

*The Light in the Piazza (my choice, but not a "touring" vehicle)
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels (very possible)
Spamalot (very possible)
Little Women (longshot)



Updated On: 12/8/04 at 04:39 PM

[CapnHook]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 4:41pm

Scroll down, there's already another Tony thread.

WAY too early to do this.

[broadwayboy81]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 4:45pm

CapnHook, that's why I put "WAY EARLY" in my subject. Just having some fun...

[RadioTV2]

Posted: 12/8/04 at 4:48pm

Check out the Tony Awards Haven, and please, I know its "way early" but click into our forums, start a thread with your predictions! It's never too early for Tony Time!
Tony Awards Haven

[Garland Grrrl]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 10:19am

daniel davis is BRILLIANT in La Cage. outshines even gary beach. heather goldenhersh for doubt will be nominated. m. mcgovern's role is too small and she will not win.

[magruder]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 10:28am

Fun predictions. And early or not, it's always a hoot to try to make predictions.

If it came down to Heather Goldenhersh or Adriane Lenox for a slot for supporting actress, I'd expect Adriane Lenox to get the nod. Her scene with Cherry Jones is very powerful.

Sight Unseen will most likely be designated a revival, given the current rulings.

On the new play front, Brooklyn Boy and The Pillowman will most likely be nominated, and I'd expect Adam Arkin, Billy Crudup, Jeff Goldblum, et al, to be contenders.

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 11:36am

Nathan Lane will probably place out either Lithgow or Butz in the Lead Actor category. He's definitely a Tony favorite and his performance was well-received.

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 1:59pm

Your predictions sound accurate, although "12 Angry Men" will probably be considered a revival, and all of its cast members in the "featured actor" category. Also, Ramona Keller will probably be nominated in the "featured" category as well, with Eden Espinosa as "leading."

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 2:01pm

By the way, James Naughton, who received mixed to negative reviews for his performance, will probably not be nominated. Also, just so you know, Amy Ryan was recently cast as Stella in "Streetcar" (I also agree that John C. Reilly is completely miscast as Stanley, but would have been a perfect Mitch).

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 2:02pm

By the way, James Naughton, who received mixed to negative reviews for his performance, will probably not be nominated. Also, just so you know, Amy Ryan was recently cast as Stella in "Streetcar" (I also agree that John C. Reilly is completely miscast as Stanley, but would have been a perfect Mitch).

[Mister Matt]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 2:07pm

Is Eden listed above the title? If not, do you think the producers will campaign to placed in the lead category?

[broadwayboy81]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 2:17pm

I kind of left The Frogs out altogether since it recieved a mixed reception. Also, by the time the Tony's roll around I think it will be forgotten...

One huge mistake I've made is leaving off Steel Magnolias, but that cast isn't finalized yet. I'm anxious to hear who they add...

I agree that Reilly would make a MUCH better Mitch.

No, Eden isn't above the title and frankly, but I'm sure the producers will try to place here in the lead catagory. As for what they will do with Ramona... who knows? I would push her into leading. I think she deserves the nod more than Eden.

[umgeoboy]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 2:20pm

Eden should have no problem getting into the lead actress category the issue is if she is going to get a nod...

romona keller is definitely the suporting actress and SHOULD get a tony nom for her part! she definitely helps carry the show..

The frogs will be a revival and Nathan, and roger bart, both deserves nom's the rest of the cast and the rest of the show eh...

[Bwaydreams01]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:09pm

My predictions are as followed

Best Leading Actress Musical
Sutton Foster, Little Women *
Eden Espinosa, Brooklyn
Victoria Clark, Light in the Piazza *
Christina Applegate, Sweet Charity
Erin Dilly, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
(a Sutton and Victoria race)

Best Leading Actor
Gary Beach, La Cage Aux Folles
John Lithgow, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Daniel Lewis, La Cage Aux Folles *
Tim Curry, Spamalot
David Hyde Pierce, Spamalot
B.D. Wong, Pacific Overtures

Best Musical
Spamalot
Dirty Rotten Scoundrels *
Brooklyn
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
Light in the Piazza
(somehow I see Spamalot's shine will leave as we enter the spring of the theatre season)

Best Featured Actress
Ramona Keller, Brooklyn*
Maureen McGovern, Little Women
Sherie Rene Scott, Dirty Rotten Scoundrels
Kelli O'Hara, Light in the Piazza*
(this will be tough, either Ramona or Kelli will win)


Best Featured Actor
Hank Azaria, Spamalot *
Denis O'Hare, Sweet Charity
Cleavant Derricks (sp?), Brooklyn
Marc Kudisch, Chitty Chitty Bang Bang
-- not really sure who else deserves to be nominated

i just did the musical categories

[Bwaydreams01]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:09pm

i'm really hoping though that christina applegate wows us in "Sweet Charity". I also realized I listed 6 guys for leading actor, so one of them would have to be bumped out, who it would be, I have no clue Updated On: 12/9/04 at 03:09 PM

[Sondheimluvchild]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:09pm

I am pretty confident 12 angry men will sweep the board. It was a top notch production. The performances in Doubt were excellent and stand a good chance but I doubt(no pun intended) its going to win for best play.

[broadwayboy81]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:12pm

I enjoyed your predictions Bwaydreams. 12 Angry Men will be listed as a revival Sondheimluvchild (love the name btw). That will leave Doubt to win best play... or Democracy

[umgeoboy]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:24pm

I think democracy would have a better chance had it not transfered from london...london shows do NOT do well come tony time even if they are box office successes.

[magruder]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:33pm

>london shows do NOT do well come tony time even if they are box office successes.<

Whoa, wha...?

What about...

The Real Thing
Art
Copenhagen
Amadeus
Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead
Marat/Sade
The Homecoming
Sleuth
Equus
Travesties
Nicholas Nickleby

All London hits. All Tony Award winners for Best Play.

[umgeoboy]

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:36pm

and let's think about
oklahoma
a day in the death of joe egg
mamma mia
and the recent shows that have transfered and even with great reviews got completely overlooked.

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:47pm

Eden Espinosa WILL NOT! be getting a nomination. They dont have a catagory called "Best Screaming "Actress" in a show about Garbadge"

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:47pm

Eden Espinosa WILL NOT! be getting a nomination. They dont have a catagory called "Best Screaming "Actress" in a show about Garbadge"

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:47pm

Eden Espinosa WILL NOT! be getting a nomination. They dont have a catagory called "Best Screaming "Actress" in a show about Garbadge"

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:48pm

Eden Espinosa WILL NOT! be getting a nomination. They dont have a catagory called "Best Screaming "Actress" in a show about Garbadge"

Posted: 12/9/04 at 3:48pm

SH*T sorry everybody I dont know how that happened. Updated On: 12/9/04 at 03:48 PM