My thoughts on the Tony's this year — Page 3

I would put money on Kate Jennings Grant being the only one nominated from GUYS AND DOLLS.

Perhaps Bierko, as well, but that's only if they don't want to nominate James Barbour or the Story of My Life guys.

I'll play.

* - Will win
# - Should win

BEST MUSICAL:
Billy Elliot
9 to 5*#
Next to Normal
Shrek

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL:
West Side Story
Guys and Dolls*#
Hair
Pal Joey

LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Trent Kowalik, Kiril Kulish and David Alverez, BILLY ELLIOT*
Brian D'Arcy James, SHREK#
J. Robert Specer, NEXT TO NORMAL
Gavil Creel, HAIR
Craig Bierko, GUYS AND DOLLS

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Allison Janney, 9 TO 5*#
Alice Ripley, NEXT TO NORMAL
Lauren Graham, GUYS AND DOLLS
Sutton Foster, SHREK
Josefina Scaglione, WEST SIDE STORY

FEATRED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL:
Christopher Sieber, SHREK*
Marc Kudisch, 9 TO 5#
Gregory Jbara, BILLY ELLIOT
Aaron Tveit, NEXT TO NORMAL
Craig Bierko, GUYS AND DOLLS

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL:
Stephanie J. Block, 9 TO 5*#
Karen Olivo, WEST SIDE STORY
Hayden Gwynne, BILLY ELLIOT
Kate Jennings Grant, GUYS AND DOLLS
Megan Hilty, 9 TO 5

BEST SCORE:
9 to 5*#
Next to Normal
Billy Elliot
[title of show]

BEST BOOK:
9 to 5*#
[title of show]
Billy Elliot
Shrek

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I really don't think Guys and Dolls is going to win, nor should it... if anything its between WSS and Hair

Since you put Craig Bierko in two categories I ay keep in leading and replace him in featured with Will Swenson.

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As a fan of Stephanie and her performance in 9 to 5, I hope she gets nominated for Featured. That way she has a shot.

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Martha Plinpton got the best reviews of the season so far for PAL JOEY, and no one is listing her for Best Featured Actress in s Musical???

Of course I know Pal Joey and Martha Plimpton. She gives the best performance in that show (which isn't saying much) and could easily take Hilty's spot in my predictions. But a revival that was universally panned won't really get much traction in any major category.

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So you guys think Next to Normal doesn't have a chance?

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I think Next to Normal will get a decent amount of nominations, but as far as winning...I'm dubious.

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Martha Plimpton will win - I think - for three reasons. One: because she has been nominated the last two years, and lost both times, and in circumstances where she had more than a good chance to win. Two: because she is standing out by doing something different (playing in a musical, when she's known as a play actor), and pulling it off. And three: because she is well-known, well-respected, and (perhaps above all) well-LIKED.

Okay, maybe it's five reasons. :)

Concerning Best Musical: for any new musical aside from BILLY ELLIOT to win, that musical would have to make itself more appealing, in a strong enough way, than ELLIOT.

There is always the Economic Reason: that ELLIOT is already on its way to success, and any of the others could really use that win. But I don't think that's a strong enough reason by itself, unless coupled with something else.

STORY OF MY LIFE isn't going to catch ELLIOT-level fire, and might not even survive for long (although I hope it does); ROCK OF AGES would not be a respectable choice at all; 9 TO 5 probably won't be able to break the damning-with-faint-praise label of "good and workmanlike"...

And NEXT TO NORMAL. Who knows? I think it's a great contender for Best Original Score, but Best Musical?

So maybe BILLY ELLIOT isn't the lock that I thought it was. But NEXT TO NORMAL will have to get down and work, either to bring its like-ability level up to BILLY's level, or to bring BILLY down.

(although the voters could do the latter themselves, if they get bored with ELLIOT by the time the ballots are mailed.)

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Updated On: 2/18/09 at 05:46 PM

I'm laughing so hard at everyone who thinks 9 to 5 is just another piece of fluff, and is just "good". Won't you be surprised when you actually get a chance to see it and read the New York reviews.

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Christopher Sieber is amazing. Gregory Jbara is good, but his performance is very one-note.

*Ducks for cover as the GJ fangirls rush in*

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Not really. The only person I could see slipping in is Carpinello.

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