NY Post: Predicting Sunday’s Tony News(ies)

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:02am

http://www.nypost.com/p/entertainment/theater/predicting_sunday_tony_news_ies_BKrrYspWJgYM2S032e7mNN

Michael Riedal offers his predictions for the 2012 Tony Awards.

Best Musical: NEWSIES

Best Play: CLYBOURNE PARK (though he notes STARCATCHER is gaining momentum and mentions ODC's June 17th closing date will kill its chances).

Best Director of a Musical: John Tiffany - ONCE (though he gives support for Calhoun)

Best Director of a Play: Mike Nichols - DEATH OF A SALESMAN

Best Score: Alan Menken & Jack Feldman - NEWSIES

Best Book: Enda Walsh - ONCE

Best Choreography: Christopher Gattelli - NEWSIES

Best Revival of a Musical: FOLLIES

Best Revival of a Play: DEATH OF A SALESMAN

Leading Actress in a Musical: Audra McDonald - THE GERSHWIN'S PORGY & BESS

Leading Actor in a Musical: Steve Kazee - ONCE (citing Jordan as his competition)

Leading Actress in a Play: Nina Arianda - VENUS IN FUR

Leading Actor in a Play: James Corden - ONE MAN, TWO GUVNORS

Feat. Actress in a Musical: Judy Kaye - NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT

Feat. Actor in a Musical: Michael Cerveris - EVITA

Feat. Actress in a Play: Judith Light - OTHER DESERT CITIES

Feat. Actor in a Play: Christian Borle - PETER AND THE STARCATCHER

[Trish2]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 8:58am

and since when are we taking any of Riedels opinions with anything less than a grain of salt? He's already shown his dislike for ONCE, and to not even consider Burstein in the mix is preposterous. He does only one thing well: gets and stirs up dirt.

[mamaleh]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 9:05am

I guess Riedel didn't read the Times piece the other day that said most Tony voters thought ONCE was more innovative and that NEWSIES didn't need the win to tour successfully. I happen to think ONCE overrated but I can appreciate how well crafted it is. My vote--probably a very minority opinion--would be for the goofy, silly, endorphin-raising NICE WORK. It may be old-fashioned and a little dumb, but I had the best time at NICE WORK out of all the nominees. There, I've said it.

And I do hope James Corden and Christian Borle win. Theirs were the top performances of the season for me.

[TheatreKid3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 11:21am

The NYT piece interviewed 40 out of over 800 voters. That is about only 5% of voters. No one could get a solid prediction or poll from that.

[bobs3]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 1:47pm

The NYT predictions was not a scientific poll but had it been, 40 people would have been a an excellent sample for a scientific poll of 800 voters. (Okay, I admit it, I am a CPA and quantitative analysis is one of my areas of expertise.)

[bdn223]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:10pm

The issue with the Nytimes polling is we don't know who they polled as in which demographic. was it road presenters, actors, producers, writers, and in proportions equal to that of theirs ratio within the full voting members. I remember reading their poll of voters last year or an editorial on it and how road presenters of smaller areas, more specifically I think he was from Buffalo, and he said that artsy doesn't sell well in smaller areas especially since they often have larger theaters. For that reason alone he said he voted for Poppins over Spring Awakening, despite the fact he thought SA was a much better show..he just thought it was too small for his theater. So honestly I think he may have been talking to the director of the Amhanson, rather than that of a smaller city such as Buffalo or Baltimore.

[AC126748]

Posted: 6/8/12 at 2:20pm

Many of Riedel's picks are far from sure things (hi, Michael Cerveris). But at least he acknowledges that by stating that his predictions have "the accuracy of Dewey Defeats Truman."