I think, to play into the psychology of eBay, you need to get as many people as possible considering themselves the future owner of this item, as they outbid one another and add it to their watch lists. Only then do you get the outrageous last-minute bids where the price goes through the roof. I once sold Broadway magnets, and people were bidding $500 at the end, just to ensure they had the high bid (just to ensure they were one bid increment higher than anyone else, not that they intended to pay $500, although a few got nailed by other people doing the same with other outrageous prices). Personally, I pitch every auction on eBay with a starting price of a penny. That will get you the highest number of bidders and watchers, and watchers are more important in the long run, since eBay will keep emailing them and reminding them about the item while it is listed.
If you price something high, it is just sitting there waiting for someone who wants it at that price. And the longer it sits there at that price, the more they will think they can get it for less.
For items like this, the value is only what someone will pay, no matter what you might think it is worth. It is also completely random. I've had something not sell for a penny in one auction, end up in a bidding war when I relist it and it going for $50+.
There is really no rhyme or reason to these things.