Predicting the Biggest Shows of a Season

[pnewelljr]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 3:46pm

My New Years resolution this year was to see every new show that came out on Broadway. Boy is there a lot of crap that makes it to Broadway.

All of this is to say, I don't think I'll ever do that again (although it was a fun experiment), but I was thinking back and wondering if I hadn't done it, would I have also definitely gotten to see all the shows I ended up loving.

Starting with my own experience this year, I was wondering how easy or hard it is for the people of this forum to predict hits before they happen (not necessarily critically or your personal preferences, but commercially successfully shows with hard to get tickets).

For me this year, those turned out to be the following:

• Sunday in the Park with George

• Hello Dolly,

• Anastasia (my prediction is this will go on to do extremely well with millennials who grew up with the move)

• Dear Evan Hansen

Note: Hard to get for me is defined as any shows where I feel the only realistic way for me to see it is to pay full price. That axes out impossible to win lotteries or shows with rush where you have to line up any earlier than 8am. This also mainly pertains to cases where the tickets will be hard to get until the original cast leaves (ie Hello Dolly will be hard to get tell Bette leaves, I believe the same to be true of DEH).

Everything else I saw either had rush, was on TDF or ended up on TKTS fairly shortly after opening. In addition, I consider the following "hits," but not "impossible" to get discount tickets to:

• Sunset Boulevard

• Great Comet

• Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (yet to be seen, but my prediction)

This post is getting too long, but I'd be interested to know the following from other members here:

1. Do you more or less agree with my list? (ie did my experience match your own)

2. Were you able to predict all or some of these hits? If so, how did you do it?

I'm mainly asking so that next year I can just buy full price ticket to 4 or 5 shows that season, but I want some tips on how to pre-emptively pick them.

Updated On: 3/28/17 at 03:46 PM

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 3:57pm

Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's only March. This season isn't over yet.

[pnewelljr]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 4:00pm

neonlightsxo said: "Sorry to burst your bubble, but it's only March. This season isn't over yet."

True. I guess I feel I've gotten a close enough sense at this point to share some thoughts about it, though. I'm just curious if anyone else feels the same.

Look forward to hearing what you think once you get to that point yourself.

[Chicken_Flavor]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 6:38pm

I think you're pretty much spot-on, even though the season isn't over yet.

[pnewelljr]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 6:41pm

Chicken_Flavor said: "I think you're pretty much spot-on, even though the season isn't over yet."

Yah, I'm curious to hear if any people knew ahead of time though, because I only know looking back.

In hindsight, Hello Dolly was a given and I should have know. Are Sondheim revivals just always a big deal or were the leads the bigger draw?

Updated On: 3/28/17 at 06:41 PM

[EvanK]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 8:46pm

I think Come From Away is on this list. 

[Theatrefanboy1]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 9:13pm

I think that after the nominations and tony award hype is in full swing Come From Away and  Dear Evan Hansen will be even more difficult to get tickets for and likely the "biggest" shows of the season. I think Hello Dolly is a without a question a sellout... but I mean that was a given. It broke records on the first day of sales, and I really don't know that there has ever been this much hype about a revival (correct me if I'm wrong)

 

Unfortunately, I think in years to come War Paint, The Great Comet will both be kinda forgotten.

Anastasia will become the Aladdin of it's season.

Bandstand will be all but forgotten. 

Sunset Boulevard will be the second coming of Carol Channing in Hello Dolly

Cats will seem like it never did actually close, and people will think that it had just gone on hiatus.

Amelie will close within the year.

Groundhog Day will stick around a year of two.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will be the School of Rock

 

[ForB4]

Posted: 3/28/17 at 9:19pm

Theatrefanboy1 said: "
 



Anastasia will become the Aladdin of it's season.

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will be the School of Rock

"

I don't get it

[Wick3]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 3:13pm

Some friends and I were talking about this recently and we think this is an unexpected result of having Hamilton being the big draw last season. As a result, several shows closed which meant a number of theaters were vacant.... thus resulting with so many new shows this season!

As far as predicting future sell out shows, reading reviews of how the show did in regional or off Broadway would help. Dear Evan Hansen was practically sold out every day a year ago when it was on Second Stage.

From my own experience, I paid full price for Dear Evan Hansen, Sunday in the Park, and Hello Dolly. I used the mailer code for Anastasia.

i normally see Bway shows via rush or SRO first and that's what I did with Dear Evan Hansen a few months ago and Sunday in the Park back in mid-Feb. Hello Dolly doesn't have an official rush/SRO policy yet but once it does, I plan on seeing it via either method. 

[pnewelljr]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 3:16pm

Wick3 said: "Some friends and I were talking about this recently and we think this is an unexpected result of having Hamilton being the big draw last season. As a result, several shows closed which meant a number of theaters were vacant.... thus resulting with so many new shows this season!

As far as predicting future sell out shows, reading reviews of how the show did in regional or off Broadway would help. Dear Evan Hansen was practically sold out every day a year ago when it was on Second Stage.

From my own experience, I paid full price for Dear Evan Hansen, Sunday in the Park, and Hello Dolly. I used the mailer code for Anastasia.

i normally see Bway shows via rush or SRO first and that's what I did with Dear Evan Hansen a few months ago and Sunday in the Park back in mid-Feb. Hello Dolly doesn't have an official rush/SRO policy yet but once it does, I plan on seeing it via either method."

Yah, interesting to know how you figured that out for DEH, and looking back that was true of Anastasia as well.

Sunday in the Park I think you could have known due to how crazy and hyped the concert was.

Tell me more about the Anastasia mailer you got, did you have to be signed up for something to receive it?

[Wick3]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 3:28pm

If you're on the Telecharge mailing list they'll mail you one at some point.

the discount code was valid until end of May and from the top of my head it is andmx1101.

There was a mailer for Hello Dolly and Dear Evan Hansen but Hello Dolly's discount was for the fall and DEH didn't have a discount! The only discount I've seen for DEH is the one for Broadway week back in early Feb.

[pnewelljr]

Posted: 3/29/17 at 3:41pm

Wick3 said: "If you're on the Telecharge mailing list they'll mail you one at some point.

the discount code was valid until end of May and from the top of my head it is andmx1101.

There was a mailer for Hello Dolly and Dear Evan Hansen but Hello Dolly's discount was for the fall and DEH didn't have a discount! The only discount I've seen for DEH is the one for Broadway week back in early Feb. "

I'm guessing you mean email list, right? Just signed up for that.

That code still works btw, unfortunately, I already bought my tickets. 

[pnewelljr]

Posted: 9/28/17 at 9:14am

With last season far behind us, I thought it might be fun to revisit this thread.

I have to leave for work soon, but my initial guesses for the big (as in, will sell out) hits are:

• Harry Potter and the Cursed Child
  • Reason: there is just no way it won't be given the audience spans far outside just the theater community
• The Band's Visit
  • Reason: critically acclaimed off-broadway run and I swear every theater friend/person I know is talking about this one, finally bought my ticket yesterday. My guess is it will start out a little slow like DEH and then get sold out.
• Frozen
  • Reason: Disney and... it's Frozen
• My Fair Lady
  • Reason: beloved property, check, hasn't been done in a while, check, Lincoln Center, check

[bear88]

Posted: 9/28/17 at 1:18pm

I would add Mean Girls. Even if it's terrible, I would very surprised if the musical is not a big hit. It's hard to overestimate just how beloved this movie is among girls and young women who saw it over and over. If I was going to New York this spring, and bringing either daughter, I would be seeing that show - whether I liked it or not.

The Band's Visit sure seems to be set up nicely. It's opening with little competition in the fall, already has excellent reviews, and is a rare new musical aimed at adults. I doubt it will be a runaway smash, but it seems like an early Tony favorite.