Jordan Catalano said: "Obviously there’s no way to know for sure but with a vaccine more and more likely being distributed (to select groups first) as early as this Fall, I think the Spring timeline here is looking very hopeful. I’m even more positive than ever now that I’ll be seeing West End shows months before Broadway shows, but I still think the March/April goal is attainable."
I respect so many people who post here - truly - but along with many others I've really come to believe that a spring reopening for Broadway is magical thinking. Which studies or articles are you referring to when you say a vaccine looks more and more likely to be available as early as fall? The most optimistic projections I've seen by Dr. Fauci and others seem to hope for an effective vaccine to HOPEFULLY be approved by November or December, but even in that best-case-scenario event there's almost no way it will be made available to enough of the population by a month or two later to allow Broadway producers to feel confident enough to begin rehearsals right after the New Year for a March or April opening.
An article yesterday with health experts at Johns Hopkins, which specifically addressed realistic timelines (that's in the title of the piece), quotes them as saying "A reasonable timeline for wide distribution of vaccines is likely the end of 2021... Even after we have a vaccine that works and even after we demonstrate its safety and efficacy and even after we’ve produced enough doses to go around, at least for the first round, we still need to get it delivered and that’s going to be a big challenge,” Dr. Bar-Zeev said. “What we’re seeing is science live in real time. I think in the long run, that’s good for science and that’s good for community trust. In the short run, it leaves people feeling a little bit, say, uncomfortable.”
I so deeply want for you to be right and for me to be wrong... I love the optimism on here, as well as elsewhere, and at bare minimum it certainly does no harm. But remember that only 2 months ago experts were trying to see if there was some way to get students back into classrooms before the end of the school year.... and now there's a question of how much in-person in-classroom learning will be possible for the entire rest of the calendar year, 6 months from now. Many outdoor parades and expos scheduled for the first few months of 2021 have already been postponed or canceled. So personally speaking I don't think scheduling school trips to see Broadway shows for this winter is a wise use of planning, when I've reluctantly come to think HogansHeroes may be right when he says "My belief is that we will not see a Broadway musical (I think we may see a few plays) before Fall '21. I have been saying this since April and I still think it is going to be the case." But again, I miss theater so much (I have tickets to two major rescheduled productions next spring) and would love to be surprised.