I highly doubt they'll give the Tony to Applegate. You can't do things on stage that you can do on film. You have to be damn good every single time you step on that stage. You can't just pick and choose the best takes. From what I've heard, neither Christina's vocal or dancing chops are up to the task, but who knows, she may improve while she's recovering. If I were her I'd take this time to work on my voice. She can't really dance, but she can take some voice lessons.
If Christina is amazing, then I could see her winning. As of now, her reviews haven't been glowing, and Victoria Clark has been earning this award for years. Unless Christina really pulls this out of her ass, Victoria's got it this year. And you never know if they'll go with Sutton, though I doubt it.
Eeeeeeyyyyyyyyaaaaaaaannnnnddddd aaaaaaaiiiiiiiiyyyyyyaaaaaammmmmmmm teeeeeeeelllllliiiiiinnngg yyyyooooooouuuuuuuwwwaaaahh...