Not being from NYC and only having listened to the cast recordings of each of these shows (and having input from friends in the city), I dearly, dearly hope Band's Visit wins- I had to pull my car over the first time I listened to it because I was crying so hard. However, if by some crazy injustice it doesn't win, Spongebob is the only other one of the four that I would be okay with winning- nothing about Frozen or Mean Girls sticks with me at all, but Spongebob is just so wildly inventive and ambitious that I'd be okay with it winning. I don't think there's any chance of it happening, because the Band's Visit should and probably will win, but I'd say Spongebob is the underdog in this situation- I don't think either of the other two have a chance.
God, the almighty and all-knowing, has misplaced a cup?