A few weeks ago, I thought this was a slam-dunk for Tharp. But the mixed reviews and less-than-thrilling box office (only 68% capacity) might handicap 'Come Fly Away' a little. Frankly, I found Jason Gilkinson's work in 'Burn the Floor' far more fun and diverse. But then again, who else has a whole 2 hours of choreography on Broadway right now? I suspect the top 3 contenders will be 'Come Fly Away,' 'Fela!' and 'Memphis' (Trujillo, who has 4 shows on Broadway right now, looks like he's gonna get his first Tony nomination). The fourth slot? 'American Idiot,' 'La Cage' or 'Promises'?
Tharp is the hands down winner, the only show on broadway with a story based on dancing alone. Also, if you're looking at box office to tell who should win choreo then you would notice Come Fly Away brought in more money than Memphis, Fela, La Cage, American Idiot and Promises. Except for Promises, Come Fly Away was almost double all others you mentioned Wayman_Wong.
As we know, box office isn't the only determining factor in what wins a Tony. 'Addams Family' is far outdrawing 'Come Fly Away,' too (at $1.2 million), but somehow I don't think Sergio Trujillo's work there is gonna win him the Tony (he's got a better shot with his work in 'Memphis'). I only bring up 'Come Fly Away's' box office because it's no 'Movin' Out.' It's got a higher box office than some other shows because it's got a higher average ticket price; some folks are willing to pay more for a dance concert by Sinatra. Don't get me wrong: Tharp is still the one to beat. But she does have a gigantic advantage over the others. Her show is purely dance, whereas the others incorporate dance alongside book scenes.
Tharp is the hands down winner, the only show on broadway with a story based on dancing alone.
So were The Times They Are A-Changin' and Hot Feet. Just because a show is all or mostly dance doesn't guarantee it a win, or a nomination for that matter.