The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#1
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:13pm
(I know I'm gonna get flamed for asking this, but it would be helpful for me to hear people's assessments and predictions on the show based on what they know about it so far.)
I'm a Broadway investor and I have the opportunity to invest in The Visit. Do you predict this one will recoup or not recoup? And I'd love to hear your reason why.
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#2
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:18pm
If you're going to the BWW message boards to decide if you should invest in a Broadway musical, you're not much of a producer.
That aside, yeah do it.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/5/13
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#3
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:24pmIf it's a show YOU believe in, then you absolutely should. The truth of the matter is that investing in any show is such a gamble. However, if I had extra money to throw around, supporting the final Kander and Ebb collaboration starring a legend like Chita Rivera is most definitely something I would want to do. Getting my money back would be secondary, and when you're taking a risk like investing in commercial theatre, that's the way you need to be looking at it.
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#4
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:27pmOne out of four chances for recouping.
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#5
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:31pmlulz.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/9/12
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#6
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:40pmAren't you putting the cart before the horse? Let's first see if it can coup. There will be plenty of time later to see if it can recoup.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/1/14
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#7
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:46pm
Risk aversion doesn't seem to be a favorable trait for Broadway investors...
Or, maybe because you felt compelled to ask (on a non-representative venue), you actually can't afford it?
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#8
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:46pm
IdinaBellFoster, I've followed the forums and I've seen some pretty intelligent commentary here, so I'm hopeful those folks will chime in. Some of the folks here have a better finger on the pulse of broadway and a better understanding of what folks want to see than many producers do.
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#9
Posted: 2/17/15 at 8:47pmJust brought a ticket to see this and at full price, I want to to succeed
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#10
Posted: 2/18/15 at 4:55pmThe Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#11
Posted: 2/18/15 at 5:08pm
Tell me what the weekly operating expenses are and I'll tell you if it will recoup.
Personally, I don't think it will, but I hope it's a successful show.
Broadway Legend Joined: 5/17/03
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#12
Posted: 2/18/15 at 5:13pm
At least you can say you invested in a Chita Rivera show.
Most shows do not recoup.
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#13
Posted: 2/18/15 at 8:40pm
qolbinau, wow, nice find! Perfectly on point.
Gothampc, I don't know if those numbers are supposed to be kept confidential. I'll PM you and we can chat off the board.
Does anyone think a show like this has a shot at the Tony for best musical, given it's sort of unique offering?
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#14
Posted: 2/18/15 at 8:44pm
Of course, it will have a shot at Tony Awards, depending on what else opens during the year.
Investing in a Broadway show is like lending money to family members: never put a dime in that you can't afford to lose. In fact, just assume the money is lost and then be pleasantly surprised if you get a return.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/1/14
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#15
Posted: 2/18/15 at 8:46pmJust invest already. If you can truly afford to, you won't mind the 75% industry failure chance. Be happy you're getting art onto the stage. Isn't that the point?
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#16
Posted: 2/18/15 at 8:52pm
Pootie, I don't think I agree with your premises. Just because a person can afford to invest, doesn't mean they should just invest in anything or everything. I am balancing an enjoyment of investing, along with the fact that if I occasionally hit a show that does really well, I can continue investing in more shows.
I've already invested in a handful of shows in the past, this isn't my first. But the other shows I've invested in, I have had a lot better handle on whether I thought they would succeed or not. This one is a bit more of a mystery to me.
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#17
Posted: 2/18/15 at 9:37pmDid you see my PM?
--Aristotle
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/9/12
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#18
Posted: 2/18/15 at 9:57pm
"But the other shows I've invested in, I have had a lot better handle on whether I thought they would succeed or not. This one is a bit more of a mystery to me."
Peter Lynch, the legendary manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund during it's heyday in the late 70's and 80's had some simple rules for successful investing. One of the most highly regarded and publicized ones was quite simple "Invest in what you know". If you don't have a good feel for whether it will succeed as you did with your other investments, then the answer is obvious, pass it by, unless you truly don't have an issue if you lose everything or want to be associated with this project for reasons beyond just potentially making money from it. I can't imagine why you'd want to invest in something unless you already have a strong feeling that "this is going to be a winner". The people on this board are certainly quite knowledgeable but also see many more shows than the average theatergoer and will passionately adopt and champion shows the mainstream theatergoing public couldn't care less about. You're better off going to people you know who see maybe 5-8 shows a year and ask THEM if this is the kind of show that would make it onto their "want to see" list. That's the audience that will be better able to give you a sense of whether this show will be successful. But again, if you don't already feel confident about this show doing well, talking yourself into it is more often than not, a mistake.
Featured Actor Joined: 8/28/13
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#19
Posted: 2/19/15 at 6:34amAfter considering this carefully, the probability of recoupment is currently 37.6 per cent.
Understudy Joined: 2/19/15
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#20
Posted: 2/19/15 at 8:01amI analyze a lot of Broadway budgets and faithfully track box office figures. Happy to share my personal tips for evaluating investment opportunities if you would like to send a personal message.
Broadway Legend Joined: 7/29/08
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#21
Posted: 2/19/15 at 9:06am
No.
But you should ask some people who know more than we do.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/29/05
The Visit predictions: Recoup or Not?#22
Posted: 2/19/15 at 9:13am
I'd like to try to keep an open mind, and I realize the show may have changed a lot over the years, but, having seen the show at the Goodman, I wouldn't find investing in it to be an attractive option. Certainly not without further review of their current vision.
But, as has been said, if you believe in the show, than, of course, you should.
If you like the show, think of the experience as a casino, with better art.
Updated On: 2/19/15 at 09:13 AM
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