The crisis of films for adults and how that affects movie musicals

I was mulling over articles and commentary about the disappointing box officer returns for the West Side Story and what it all means.

A few random thoughts:

- I have attended about one movie a month since May. I live in the SF Bay Area, and while I wish the cities where the movie theaters I frequent had vaccine requirements (as theaters with live productions do), it's been less of an issue because in my neck of the woods, no one attends the movies I'm seeing anyway. I haven't attended a movie with more than 12 people in the theater since I resumved going, and usually, I'm one of about four people there (as I was on Saturday night to see WSS). I've seen everything from arthouse fare like Pig and C'mon C'mon to popular big-budget movies like Dune and Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings. It doesn't matter. I have no problem finding a virtually empty theater. It's really rather sad and pathetic at movie theaters in my area. By comparison, actual theaters with live performances seem downright full by comparison, though with less attendance than they would have had pre-pandemic.

-  The stories that have been written, and will continue to be written unless West Side Story emerges as a sleeper box-office hit or Cyrano outperforms at actual theaters, is that movie musicals are a bad idea - period. They're a particularly bad idea is they don't have established stars or boast the possibility of pop hits. I think this critique misstates the case. The real problem is that movies that rely on audiences from blue parts of the country - regardless of whether they're musicals - are going to be box office poison for a while.

- I cannot count the number of people on Twitter who voiced some variation on the following sentiment: I'm really interested in seeing West Side Story but will wait until it's streaming. A San Francisco Chronicle sportswriter who opines on other things posted a link to a story about the movie's box office disappointment by writing, "We're not ready (stream it)." Tough to fight that, especially with Covid cases up and a new variant spreading.

- None of this will hurt the latest Spiderman movie, because it doesn't rely on blue areas to be successful. It relies on young guys from anywhere and will do just fine. Same with Marvel movies and horror films and sequels to popular franchises. 

- But non-musical, non-sequel movies for adults? Toast. King Richard, featuring one of the most bankable stars of the past few decades, won't come close to making back its $50 million budget even if it wins Will Smith an Academy Award for Best Actor. The Last Duel has plenty of star power but was a box office disaster. Belfast is a leading awards contender, cost $25 million and has made about $6.5 million thus far at the box office. It probably won't be in theaters by the time it gets a haul of nominations. I could go on. It's not a new problem, but Covid and everyone's awareness that an acclaimed movie will be available somewhere soon has made it worse. In many cases, you don't have to wait long. The Power of the Dog is available now on Netflix, and other well-reviewed films will be out soon.

- It doesn't matter to the average moviegoer how many times people say a movie like In the Heights or West Side Story is better on the big screen because of the spectacle. Regular people don't think they need to see dancers on a big screen.

- Lin-Manuel Miranda is surviving this bloodbath OK. In the Heights got a lot of grief for being a box office failure, but unless things turn around quite a bit, it will probably lose a lot less money for Warner Brothers than West Side Story will for 20th Century Studios just because the latter cost twice as much to make and promote. Encanto, the Disney animated musical for which Miranda wrote the songs, has been labeled a box office disappointment. But it's still likely to make money for Disney given its success worldwide and its box office legs, which probably will continue through the holidays. (It barely trailed WSS debut on its third weekend.) The Netflix mystery machine will swallow the numbers for Vivo and his directorial debut, Tick Tick Boom. But the latter has won considerable critical acclaim and may net a Best Actor nomination for Andrew Garfield (and possibly more, though I doubt it).

- The whole movie industry is going to need a new model and films with big budgets .are going to be deep-sixed unless they're superhero movies, horror, or sequels. Why make movies for people who aren't going to show up at theaters? If I was running a Hollywood studio and wanted to keep my job, I would dump everything that's not in those categories until Covid passes or people start showing up at movie theaters anyway. To get some awards and preserve some self-respect, I would do some limited releases of good movies with potential along with streaming films. But I would view them as loss leaders.

- I know there's still chatter about upcoming movie musicals. But unless they can be made for much smaller budgets than I assume were planned, I wouldn't hold my breath unless the studio really views them as a prestige offering or they can be done on the cheap. 

- This might not be the end of the world. The recent batch of filmed musicals have varied in quality, but it's nice to have them. A lot of young Broadway actors have gotten exposure, and there's still interest by creators in musicals - which are suffering along with every other film aimed at college-educated liberals, no more and no less.

 

 

 

As BritCrit said, this isn't really a new problem, it's just exacerbated. The kinds of films you're talking about also typically have longer run times (with previews and credits, WSS runs over 3 hours), which prohibits high turnover in terms of showings and also is likely contributing to those who are nervous to be in an enclosed space with strangers whose vaccination status and mask use is unknown. The runtime issue has always existed for Oscar fare.

Indie theatres and showings seem to be doing relatively well, though. It's the weird films that are somewhere between art house and mainstream, like Belfast, that are strange to me. Belfast, for example, is playing at my local art house cinema and just got extended another weekend because it's selling well there. At the nearest multiplex, it played for 2 weekends. Maybe that's because indie cinemas feel "safer" to older audiences? If it's privately owned, they can make their own rules (mine has a mask mandate, while the multiplex does not). The audience is likely to be older and more liberal, and therefore more likely to be vaccinated, perhaps?

Idk, I find the discourse surrounding the moviegoing experience lately fascinating. The bottom line, for me at least, is that the pandemic fundamentally changed the way we consume content, and theatres and studios will need to adjust to this new normal.

I'm old enough to remember when what the public knew about a film's box office grosses was confined to a 30 second segment on Entertainment Tonight.

I don't think any movie that is coming out is a stellar box office smash.  That's Covid, baby.  And yes, it's troubling.  As much as Spielberg dislikes streaming, I think it would have been the best choice here if making money was his goal.  

The movie also has two problems in terms of advertising.  The first being Ansel Elgort.  The controversy undeniably shaped the trailers--a love story where the leading man is barely referred to. Again, streaming would have helped.  I think those decrying Elgort on social media would feel less guilty watching WSS if they weren't paying for it up front.  

 

The other problem, I think, is just overfamiliarity.  It seems to me, on Broadway at least, taking a brand-recognized property (especially mainstream comedies like MRS. DOUBTFIRE, TOOTSIE, and GROUNDHOG DAY) and turning it into a mainstream-minded musical is turning into a risky venture.  10-20 years ago brand recognition was an asset, now it seems to be a bit more of a wild card.  People want an unfamiliar story.  They want to be surprised in some way.  Personally, I find this exciting for Broadway, but the attitude seems to have spilled over into the lack of enthusiasm for WSS:  We've seen this already, we know how it plays out.  

However, WSS could pull through.  There's the international box office to take into account and it could possibly have staying power, much like MOULIN ROUGE (which also had a weak opening weekend) did.  

Quick responses:

- I'm a little skeptical of the runtime thesis. The big Marvel movies are just as long as the musicals and the box office is fine. Nobody, except for me, complains that they're too long. People will go to see what they want to see.

- My "blue state" or, really, "blue area" thesis (plenty of blue cities in red states) is that people in those areas have been more reticent to go out because of COVID-19 concerns. They're also the types of people who have probably added to their list of streaming services during the pandemic. I don't think I am unique in being aware of when some movies are showing up on streaming services. (See the popularity of Google searches for where to find films on which streaming service - and when.) Those people are staying home and enjoying movies in their living room, where they don't have to wear masks and where home audio systems are better. The appeal of "going out to the movies" just isn't there. What's hurt by this? Movies with decent-sized budgets that appeal to "blue area" people - the sort of mainstream films that get good reviews and are up for awards. Those films already have been struggling as Prestige TV stole their audience. Covid has finished them off.

- I agree that some films were budgeted before the pandemic and carried bigger price tags. West Side Story and In the Heights are examples of this, as is the latest James Bond film. I'm not sure about the WSS situation internationally, as I'm not sure about release dates, but I know ITH didn't draw much of an overseas audience. Both films are very American, focusing on a single neighborhood in New York City in either the present or the past. 

- The exception, I've noticed, is Disney's Encanto. It keeps being labeled a disappointment, and it is in the United States - though its staying power has been pretty solid. (It barely trailed WSS on its third weekend and is the type of well-reviewed, Disney-backed family film that tends to stick around.) It's doing pretty well overseas, though. It may be the only musical to make money this year. 

- By the way, I agree that West Side Story could end up doing decent box office. It's got the holidays coming up, and lots of people looking for options. I do think the allegations against Ansel Elgort have hurt the film, less because those allegations exploded in the mainstream but because they undermined the entire reason for hiring him: Elgort was an actual up-and-coming movie star, not an unknown-to-the-masses Broadway performer. Instead of highlighting him, as I assume was the original plan, the promoters have basically had to hide their leading man. 

- I do find all of this very interesting because, at least in my neck of the woods, we're seeing the death of an industry. Movies, historically, have been resilent - even after television took over. But people have gotten out of the habit of going to a movie, especially in blue areas. That is going to affect what we're offered, and it will certainly affect movie musicals.

Bear88, I get what you're saying. My parents live in the Bay Area (lifelong for my mom; about from college for my dad), are very left-leaning, enjoy theatre, vaxxed as early as possible, and... haven't gone anywhere during covid. They're happily retired and taking long walks and have been renovating the backyard. My dad loves the original WSS and I'll have to ask him if he'd see this if he could. Neither of them have gone to any movies, although generally they didn't do a lot of that before covid anyway. I think they'd really like the new WSS, but I'm not going to nudge them to go if they're uncomfortable.

Moving forward, I can see movie musicals being released on streaming services more often than in theaters nationwide. Like when Tick, Tick…BOOM! debuted on Netflix last month, it was at one point the #7 most watched film on that platform. Not to mention that despite mixed reviews for Ryan Murphy’s The Prom, it at least proved to be very commercially successful as it placed at #7 in the top ten SVOD movie debuts of 2020 (according to Screen Engine’s count).

I paid $12.95 to see No Time to Die in a theater.

I can now buy/own it only a few weeks later for $19.95.

The latter might increasingly seem like the more prudent investment for some, particularly if they have a good home viewing setup and found movie theaters a mixed bag in terms of experience.