I agree that Bertie will likely be nominated and certainly does stand a chance, but I really think everyone here will be surprised by Matilda's mediocrity. The performances are strong but people here talk like it will be the runaway hit of the spring. Having seen it, I highly doubt that.
Featured Actor Joined: 9/13/08
So, what about Christmas Story?
Will it get nominated for best musical and best score? Or will it be forgotten?
A Christmas Story has a very good chance of being nominated. Of all the fall new musicals, it has the best chance.
The spring musicals are Cinderella (if it gets put here, which I don't think will happen), Hands on a Hardbody, Kinky Boots, Matilda, and Motown. If Cinderella is ruled a revival, that's 5 options for 4 slots.
And Motown's score is ineligible, so A Christmas Story has an excellent shot for Best Score.
Broadway Legend Joined: 8/13/09
And even if Cinderella does end up being eligible for best musical (which I still think unlikely, even with the heavily revised book), there is no way they would be able to justify the score being eligible for best score, so it wouldn't be taking a slot that A Christmas Story's score could potentially nab.
mikem, there's also Chaplin.
Videos