As Broadway becomes more and more (and more) of a tourist haven, I think you'll find that the show has to meet a number of basic criteria in order to be seen as "Broadway material". I posted this in another thread, so forgive me for repeating, but it seems apropos.
Look at the shows that have had enormous runs: WICKED, LION KING, PHANTOM, DROWSY, and you'll see a certain trend in all of them: a stylish approach, both in writing and music, a story that can cater to both children and adults (even if on different levels), and the somewhat uncanny ability to reinvent themselves when things start to go stale, either through re-casting or a new marketing approach or even rewriting part of the show. It's a serious balancing act, and few producers really know how to do it well.. which could explain why we've seen so many supposedly sure-fire hits drop by the wayside.
(Yes, I realize CHICAGO isnt kid-friendly, but what it has that people want to see is the sleaze factor — and one should never underestimate that for its potential.)
IMHO, it's all about focus: making sure that everything is following the same creative and production through-line, having the balls to cut what doesnt work and rework what does until the finished piece is about as close to perfection as you can get. Look at WICKED: first time I saw it, I really hated the show. But seeing it again and again (four times now), Ive come to appreciate the skill at which everything in that musical works together. Not many shows can claim that.
And it's not the subject matter: look at SWEENEY or NEXT TO NORMAL. You'd be hardpressed to call either of those typical Broadway fare — and yet they both worked because they had their objectives down pat, and everything contributed to that.
Just my 0.02.
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