What day are you planing on trying it? If its a weekend date, the odds aren't great. There are always less people in line on weekdays. Though since it is in the height of Tony season, its possible the lines at the shows you mentioned wont be quite as bad since everyone will be trying for this years winners/nominees. I dont see one show having better odds honestly.
If saving money is important, I'd say go for it. At best you get the discounted ticket. At worst you can then buy the cheapest full priced ticket they have, or check if its at the TKTS booth. They also both have discount codes on BroadwayBox if rush doesnt work out for you.