I've never considered Boyd the frontrunner in his category. I've always thought that Daniel Breaker was. I'd be much happier if he won than if Boyd did. And to answer the original poster: yes, this is the year of revivals. In my opinion, the best new musical this year has been Passing Strange and that won't exactly sweep the awards this year the way that Spring Awakening did (the most Tony's I could even imagine it winning are 3, maybe 4).
Actually, there are only two categories where the revivals will be shut out of: Best Orchestrations and Best Choreography. The Tony's won't want to award SITPWG's tiny orchestrations, and Gypsy and South Pacific are using the originals. Also, SITPWG has no choreography, Gypsy is using the old Jerome Robbins choreography, and South Pacific more has musical staging than actual choreography (although it could get a surprise nomination because of how seamless it runs with the direction). Other than that, you will see at least one revival nominated in every category, and winning in a great deal of them.
"Sing the words, Patti!!!!" Stephen Sondheim to Patti LuPone.