Rosemary Harris, had she been nominated for Road to Mecca, would have tied Julie Harris's record 9 nominations for best actress in a play (Harris has an additional nomination for best actress in a musical, for Skyscraper; she lost to Lansbury in Mame).
I think Kelli O'Hara might well have won for South Pacific if Lupone's second win (for Gypsy) hadn't been so long overdue, and O'Hara would have very likely won if Lupone had gotten a recently well deserved win for Sweeney Todd (which she did not). I agree that Peters might well have won for Sunday if Rivera's win for The Rink hadn't been, in part, an award for her consistently wonderful work over the years (not to diminish Rivera's performance in The Rink).
I think the question is generally hard to answer because of the converse: the alchemy of who wins is often flavored by a deserving nominee having won recently.
In general, thought, I think the "it's about time" effect may be less significant than it is with the oscars; but let's face it, if the "it's about time" effect were that dispositive in the oscars, Garbo, Finney, O'Toole, Ritter, and Kerr (big time consistent oscar also rans and screen legends) would have gotten competitive oscars.
Updated On: 5/30/12 at 09:50 AM