2007 Leading Actress in a Musical Tony Nominee Contenders- Page 2

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 11:41am

I also agree that D'Amboise will be considered supporting, and that Goodwin will get her spot, if anyone from ACL gets nominated. I dont predict alot of acting nominations for Les Miz or ACL...just a gut prediction.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 11:52am

I've said it before, but I'll say it again: of course Christine Ebersole is the front runner to win this year, but being such a huge frontrunner is often a thing of some peril.

She is not eligible for any of the pre-cursor awards, having won them last year, and its not even a guarantee GREY GARDENS will run until June. Two solid years of buzz is also somewhat hard to maintain, and the Tony Awards often surprise in the leading actress catagory.

It's not at all an unthinkable scenario that one of these other actresses could create enough buzz to steal the Tony.

Ebersole's performance, brilliant as it is, "feels" like it belongs to last season. Perception is everything.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 11:55am

I agree with you, MB, but I do think, if any performance of the past 10 years can hold onto that Tony, it's this one.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:02pm

Oh I agree! I will be surprised if Ebersole doesn't win, but stranger things have happened. Probably the other biggest "lock" to win in the last ten years in this catagory was Julie Andrews in VICTOR VICTORIA, and look what happened there!

On a slightly different note, I also think the supporting actress in a musical catagory will be pretty full: I agree, however, that I really don't see ACL or LES MIZ getting more than a couple of acting noms a piece.

I think this year with so many fascinating musical projects opening on Broadway, LES MIZ and ACL are going to receive a bit of a critical drumming for being straight recreations.

Updated On: 9/14/06 at 12:02 PM

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:07pm

If it were up to me, LES MISERABLES should not be eligible for the Best Revival award - it should only be eligible for the performances.

To deem it eligible for a Best Revival Tony would also lead one to believe that the director and designers would be eligible. I find it too far fetched to think that the Tony's will deem it a Revival, but disqualifiying the director and the designers. Just strange.

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:19pm

I kind of agree, Munk, but if they were to say LES MIZ is not eligible for best revival because its a recreation than they would also really have to say ACL isn't eligible either. The only difference between them, is the amount of time that has passed since they closed. LES MIZ "feels" like it just closed, but it fits the criteria in the Tony rule book about being eligible.

Of course, none of the creative team of either show will be eligible, unless the hints that LES MIZ is going to be recostumed and reorchestrated are true.

Even if they were, I think ACL and LES MIZ are going to be very peripheral in this years Tony contest.

Too much new and exciting on the horizon to reward revivals.

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:34pm

It's amazing how cluttered the year already is. By the time the nominations come out, though, I am guessing quite a bit will have already shuttered or be on the verge of and the nominations will sadly be fairly obvious again.
Right now, though, on paper, it's extremely tight. I'm already pulling for a few people (I'm excited about Celia's possibly getting a second straight nom) and looking forward to seeing some NEW theatre in addition to revisiting some shows I missed their first time around.

[Yankeefan007]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:48pm

And this time last year we were eagerly awaiting the arrival of In My Life and Lestat. Go figure!

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:51pm

The roller coaster of Broadway.

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:53pm

I agree, bway.

I haven't been this excited for a new season in years.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 12:59pm

I have a feeling that with so many performers and shows available to receive award recognition, and given the fact that with THE APPLE TREE now we have 5 revivals, LES MISERABLES might easily get the complete shaft and not get nominated for anything.

There are only 4 slots for the Best Revival of a Musical category, and it's easily filled out with COMPANY, A CHORUS LINE, 110 IN THE SHADE and THE APPLE TREE. Aside from that category, the only thingLES MIS will have going for it is Celia. And with so many talented performers in other fresh works, this would be the perfect opportunity for the nominating committee to say to Cameron Macintosh, "You can't run for 16 years, close, come back 3 years later and expect to receive award nominations for what is essentially a replacement cast of the same production". Because if they start awarding this scheme, it's only going to give permission for other shows to close, come back 3 years later and expect to win awards. No?

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:01pm

It's way too early to suggest they'll snub Les Miz as a critique of Mackintosh.
And Les Miz is a proven money-maker. That's not always a criteria for awards-eligibility but there's also little guarantee a show like "The Apple Tree" or "110 in the Shade" could even stay open through an entire season and merit a revival nomination/award if they don't open in April.

All I know is, this Broadway season is about to be very cruel to my wallet.

[kyle33nyc]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:06pm

Everyone talks about Ebersole being the strong frontrunner, but the honest truth is Grey Gardens will be lucky to still be running come next spring. No matter how much the critics might love it, its a tough sell. If Grey Gardens closes in January or February, which I personally think is a strong possibility, is it realistic to think that the Tonys will award Ebersole with a second leading actress award?

Of course, Chenoweth and McDonald (the other two "sure thing" nominations) are also in limited runs. When does 110 close? It's way too early to predict, but I won't be at all surprised if Audra pickes up Tony number 5. Then again, if Monk's role is significant in size, voters would love to honor her AND Kander and Ebb. I think that Curtains will surprise people with the momentum it's going to build.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:07pm

Oh crap! Did we forget about Barbara Walsh?

[Michael Bennett]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:10pm

Well APPLE TREE isn't staying open till the Tony Awards - its already announced that it is a limited engagement. But it would be very easy for the show to still garn multiple performer nominations. Ditto 110 IN THE SHADE. And GREY GARDENS has a huge shot at two supporting actress nominations.

Thats the thing that makes it all so interesting. Not only do we have a huge number of projects opening, but there are going to be multiple people competing with costars from their own shows.

Crazy!

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:12pm

I'm thinking that Mary Louise Wilson is a lock for supporting.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:16pm

grey gardens will run through the tonys. I don't doubt that for a moment.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:20pm

Grey Gardens will be lucky to still be running come next spring. No matter how much the critics might love it, its a tough sell.

The critics don't love GREY GARDENS. Read the reviews. They love Ebersole.

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:26pm

What's Barbara Walsh in?

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:26pm

COMPANY

[kyle33nyc]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:28pm

I agree. I said "no matter how much", in case they become enthusiastic when it transfers or feels a need to champion an underdog. The show is appreciated by critics, but not really liked. Mixed reviews, odd subject matter, and no bankable stars = early demise. This ain't a Disney show...

And yes, Apple Tree will also be closed by Tony time. I'm sure Chenoweth will also get a nomination, and that will be the end of the road to Tony #2 in 2007.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:31pm

And don't expect THE APPLE TREE to be extended, y'all. It's leaving so that 110 IN THE SHADE can move on in to Studio 54 (the worst performance space on Broadway -- grr.)

Updated On: 9/14/06 at 01:31 PM

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:32pm

Let's face it: the majority of people that will rush out to see GREY GARDENS are people that are avid theatregoers and look for new and fresh material. Us theatregoers that are "in the know" will go to see Ebersole's performance due to all the hype surrounding her after GREY GARDENS opened off-Broadway.

A family or a couple traveling to NYC from anytown USA for a week to catch a show aren't goint to select GREY GARDENS, unless, of course - they know the documentary and are familiar with Ebersole's raves.

I want the show to succeed, I want it to run, and I want people to love it - but in all probability, I think it's going to suffer a fate similar to CAROLINE, OR CHANGE or GEM OF THE OCEAN - two pieces with stellar casts and by acclaimed playwrights that received very positive reviews - CAROLINE at the Public and GEM on Bway. Still, they closed a huge failure. The subject matter was alienating, and the forms intimidating to some people. I just can't see GREY GARDENS becoming a sensation and recouping it's investment. I'm rooting for it, but almost all of the odds are against it.



And on another note, what do you mean Celia is the only thing LES MIS has going for it? You've not even seen her in the role yet. Personally, I think one of the only things this LES MIS "revival" has going for it is the cast - a group of Broadway favorites playing some of our favorite characters. Personally, I'm more excited to see Daphne-Rubin Vega's take on Fantine and Alexander Gemignani's take on Valjean than anyone else.

[bwaysinger]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:37pm

I'm having a train wreck moment regarding Rubin-Vega's Fantine, although I suppose lowering the keys for her singing will make her more than acceptable; she's quite a fine actress, but those songs are beyond her in their original keys.
I think Norm Lewis will prove quite a score in Les Miz. Jury's still out for me regarding Gemignani but I'm prepared to have my opinion changed.

[jrb_actor]

Posted: 9/14/06 at 1:50pm

while everthing you said, munk, may or may not come to fruition, it doesn't dictate whether or not the show will run through the tonys. it will.

and as for lowering keys--what matters is how the songs sit in her voice. higher does not equal better. great singing equals better.