This was the best post-weekend catchup thread I've ever read.
Aber, I'm not going to dissent with any of your opinions except your assertion somehow that all the precursor awards somehow affect the Tonys. I think we could easily pull up instances where they do but they just as often do not. It's not like the Golden Globes or the SAGs to the Oscars. The Broadway/Off-Broadway awards rarely share mutual voters and they tend to have markedly different opinions of what to award.
I saw the Grey Gardens documentary in my Plays and Playwrights class some semesters ago, and was just blown away by it. When I heard there was going to be a movie remake of the film and musical made about it, I was not to pleased to hear it to say the least. I know it's silly of me, but for some reason, I got sort of angry that they were going to do this.
Now, I've actually seen the Drama Desk performance by Ms. Ebersole, and was really impressed. She got Little Edie down so well, and the song she sang "Revolution" is not an easy song to pull off, and yet I was drawn in and found myself laughing at the lines. I can totally see why she'd be the front-runner. However, I am only judging one performance, so I don't really know how she is in sustaining it it throughout the whole show.
I only found out about Kristin Chenoweth starring in the Apple Tree a few hours ago, and I'm just so glad that she's going to be back in Broadway in a real leading role that will ask her to do something beyond her usual roles that I just hope she'll be nominated just so I can have a performance of Chenoweth doing the Apple Tree on tape. I loved Barbara Harris's rendition of "Movie Star" and though I don't expect Chenoweth to do a recreation of Harris, I hope Chenoweth is able to give a performance that would be worthy of the Harris.
"I've got to get me out of here
This place is full of dirty old men
And the navigators and their mappy maps
And moldy heads and pissing on sugar cubes
While you stare at your books."
I've only seen Harris on the Broadway's Lost Treasures DVD and listened to her on The Apple Tree cast recording, so I don't know how she was live, but I can assure you that Chenoweth's performance in the show is astounding and probably the best work she's done on the New York stage so far, definitely the only one worthy of her abilities.
"Kristen Chenoweth - Probably won't be even nominated Christine Ebersole - She'll probably win Charlotte D'Amboise - Nominated, might be a winner Laura Bell Bundy - No nomination, I bet. Ashley Brown - Might be nominated Jenn Colella - No clue, but I bet she won't get a nomination either Daphne Rubin-Vega - She'll be nominated as a featured actress, I predict. Lea Michele - She'll be nominated. Debra Monk - No clue. Audra McDonald - She needs another Tony. =) Stephanie J. Block - might be nominated"
No casting for LEGALLY BLONDE has been officially announced. But the word is that Bundy will be playing Elle Woods.
"Winning a Tony this year is like winning Best Attendance in third grade: no one will care but the winner and their mom."
-Kad
"I have also met him in person, and I find him to be quite funny actually. Arrogant and often misinformed, but still funny."
-bjh2114 (on Michael Riedel)
I think we can safely say that McDonald, Chenoweth, and Ebersole are locks.
Having seen only the performance of Charlotte D'Amboise, I don't think the poor girl has a chance of winning the award. Not a single hope. She may not even be nominated, as she's just not the shining star as McKechnie was. If Avian pushes her, she can get there. But as it stands now, I don't think she will receive accolades or great reviews for her performance.
She might snag a nomination if they decide to keep her in the featured category, which would be a smart idea- in my opinion.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."-Charlie Manson
I wish the producers of Grey gardens would come to their senses and just replace Ebersole with Ashley Brown already. I'm sure shw could pull off Mary and Edie fine. She's that good.
"I don't wanna see that!" -Aunt Sassy (as played by Valerie Cherish) on Room & Bored
Ashley Brown should also replace Audra MacDonald. Jesus, what was Roundabout thinking when casting that poor, untalented woman? Ashley Brown would be so much better as Lizzy Curry.
"If you are going to do something, do it well. And leave something witchy."-Charlie Manson
I don't understand how most people are saying that Christine has this award in the bag already when no one has seen Audra's performance yet. Also, Kristin is bound to get some votes from the Tony voters, but I doubt she'll win. I don't know who else will be nominated (hoping for Stephanie Block and maybe Ashley Brown or Laura Bell Bundy).
The majority of the predictions last year were that Patti would win...and look what happened. I think Christine's performance was absolutely brilliant, but I still think the 2007 Leading Actress Award is up for grabs.
I think it is unfair to compare Ebersole's buzz to LuPone's. The New York Times review actually said that she might as well be giving the best performance we've seen in a musical. I do agree that it is too soon to tell. In my opinion, it is going to be between Ebersole and Chenoweth (she gave a magnificent performance in the Encores! production of The Apple Tree). From the out of town reviews of The Pirate Queen it does look like Stephanie J. Block's nomination is a lock.
Brantley disliked Wicked, but one million dollars worth of people seem to be enjoying it just fine each week. He also singled out Chenoweth and wrote her a love letter, yet Menzel walked off with the Tony. Ya never know when the Tony people will give a big F*** You and give the Tony to someone else. Anyone remember Donna Murphy upsetting Ms. Andrews?
Block is not a lock. I saw the show. She is good but wasted under bad material. If she gets nominated this year of all years I will be pissed. She doesn't deserve it. I'm sorry but you shouldnt get a Tony nomination cause you can belt. It has to be more than that.
Ebersole will win the Tony. McDonald cannot beat her.