2007 Leading Actress in a Musical Tony Nominee Contenders — Page 11

Because in the original production, which this revival is a duplicate of, Cassie was considered Leading and Donna McKechnie won a Tony for it.

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Well, with Ashley Brown's notices in for Poppins, its safe to say she might just get a nomination. People seemed to enjoy her. It's still Ebersole's trophy though.

I think the total opposite, after seeing the show, reading the reviews, and with the new addition of the always-magnificent Donna Murphy to the competition, it is almost safe to say that Ashley Brown will not get a nomination. To be honest, I'd deny her the nomination for the robotic smile only.
My predictions as of now:
Kristin Chenoweth- The Apple Tree
Christine Ebersole- Grey Gardens
Donna Murphy- LoveMusik
Audra McDonald- 110 in the Shade

The fifth slot will be quite a competition between Laura Bell Bundy, Lea Michelle, and Stephanie J. Block; with Bundy and Block having a slightly higher chance given the fact they carry their shows.

Oh boy.

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I'd predict:

Christine Ebersole
Donna Murphy
Kristin Chenoweth
Audra McDonald
Debra Monk

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While I thought Debra Monk was thrilling in Curtains, I did not buy her role as leading. She is indeed billed above the title along with David Hyde Pierce (the only lead in the show, IMO) but the show is such an ensemble piece that apart from Pierce, the rest of the characters feel featured. However, Sutton Foster got a nomination for leading actress in an ensemble-driven piece as well, so Smaxie has a point.
I wonder if Murphy has any chances of winning over Ebersole. Interesting that (most likely) at least two of the nominees will be nominated for playing real-life women.

Margo, you have a point about Lea.

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Out of all the possible contenders, five are previous winners. I have a hard time believing that the nominating committee isn't going to inaugurate at least one newbie into the mix, leaving out one prior winner. I guess this will all depend on how the reviews for the rest of the season pan out. SPRING AWAKENING opens on December 10th. I was at the first preview two nights ago and this show was unlike any Broadway experience I've ever had. I think Lea Michele should be considered leading, and I do think she will get a nomination in that category, which will also include Ebersole, Chenoweth, McDonald, and Murphy. Debra Monk isn't exactly a goddess on the same level as the other four previous winners, but again, it will come down to how well her performance is received. SPRING AWAKENING will be the next big thing for Broadway, and nominations for Lea Michele, Jonathan Groff, and John Gallagher Jr. will all be staples among recognizing the show as a whole (I also actually believe Gallagher will win, but that's for a different thread.)

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Updated On: 11/18/06 at 08:11 AM

MARY POPPINS will get a nod for set design and Gavin Lee if there's room left for him. There are too many other musicals opening this season that nominations won't be wasted on a Disney show that's going to run until the end of time regardless of awards it receives. Ashley Brown has no chance at a nomination, especially considering the lukewarm reception she's gotten this week.

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All we need to wait for is the SPRING AWAKENING review. Even if Lea Michele and Laura Bell Bundy are negatively received (which I don't think is going to happen, at least with Michele), Brown doesn't have a chance in heck to take a nod away from a past Tony winner, of which there are already enough to fill each slot.

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Monk will not be considered featured, her name is listed above the title along with Hyde Pierce and while her role does feel like a feature role her part (not to mention her spectacular acting) is beefy enough to be considered for the Best Leading Actress category.
Ashley Brown reviews were lukewarm and not worthy of a Tony nod in a season with so many star turns by other great actresses in better roles.
Oh, and it's "Donna" not "Doona"

>Ms. Monk will be considered featured<

Doubtful. Monk's name is above the title, so she'll be considered for the leading category, unless the producers campaign to move her to the supporting category. But with that show's supporting roles for Karen Ziemba, Megan Sikora and Jill Paice, I imagine Monk will stay exactly where she is.

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